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Roch's "Various improvements needed from these six Orioles"


mdbdotcom

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13 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

You've said several times that the offense was sufficient, yet we were outscored by every single team that made the playoffs, including the national league teams.

We scored 3 runs or less 76 times, including 19 in September and one in October - that's 20 times in our last 28 games. Without significant offensive improvement, this team will not compete for a playoff spot.

You make an interesting point.    The team only scored one fewer run in 2017 than in 2016, so it feels like a playoff-level offense, but then you have to consider that the average AL team was +32 runs compared to 2016.    The picture is a bit confused by the massive slump at the end — is that the “real” Orioles, or is what we saw up to then the “real” Orioles?    The correct answer is “both.”   It’s a streaky team.

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8 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

We scored 1 less R this season than last. The problem was R allowed. 

In 2016, when we scored 744 runs, the AL average was 731.

In 2017 we scored 743, but the AL average was 763.

Our offense went from being above average to below average, as the average went up by 32 runs and we scored one fewer run. That's a net drop of 33 runs, relative to the league.

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7 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Well, I would’ve maybe had the opposite conversation about paying Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo.

That would have been harder to make since both were coming off career years. Even Peter can see how bad our SP was.

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Gausman needs to stick to what helped make him successful in the 2nd half. Same with Manny. Not counting on number 3. They need to get him some better ADHD meds, or take him off them and tell him to swing. Beckham needs to bee in the 5-6 spot like he was in August. Britton should be able to rock and roll next year. 

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3 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

There are plenty: Lynn 18 QS, Cobb 15,  Cashner 18,  Darvish 15, Chacin 16, Gonzo 13 CC  14

You can keep posting that list.  I would gladly take any three of them, but there are 29 other teams that might want some pitching and even if Potter is willing to go all in, he aint bagging three of these.  And the offense was not playoff caliber in 17.  And you need a catcher.

It is dangerous to compare our 2016 playoff team as some sort of benchmark for being competitive.  The playoff experience lasted one night.  And the AL has improved tremendously.

Look at it another way.  While we need 3 quality pitchers...which everyone seems to agree on...(just not where they can come from).  The team that scored one less run in 17 than 16 finished in last place.  And while pitching was the easiest and most important reason...its not the only one.

In 2016 the O's scored 744 runs in 17 743.  That was good enough for 7th in the AL in '16 and 8th in '17.  The pitchers gave up 715 in '16 and 841 in '17.  That moved them from 10th in the AL in '16 to 14th.  The teams that scored the most in 16 were the Redsox and Indians...they played for the ALCS.  The teams that scored the most in '17...the Astros and Yankees.

This team eeked into the playoffs in '16 and exited quickly.  The easy story is they failed to improve on pitching.  But this team as currently constructed is miles from being where the Astros, Yankees, Redsox and Indians are.  Three pitchers from your list will certainly put em in the hunt like this year.  But can you really expect a team that is below average defensively up the middle and playing two one dimensional players everyday to really compete in October.

I do think it is possible...I'm not denying that.  And Frobby above said that "going for it" for Baltimore means competing for WC and that is certainly better than being eliminated in June or July...but I would personally have a higher bar and as much as I want to believe...I believe removing one or both of Davis/Trumbo is necessary to compete...even with better pitching.

Happy to be wrong though and will certainly be ready to drink Koolaid in March.

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4 minutes ago, foxfield said:

You can keep posting that list.  I would gladly take any three of them, but there are 29 other teams that might want some pitching and even if Potter is willing to go all in, he aint bagging three of these.  And the offense was not playoff caliber in 17.  And you need a catcher.

It is dangerous to compare our 2016 playoff team as some sort of benchmark for being competitive.  The playoff experience lasted one night.  And the AL has improved tremendously.

Look at it another way.  While we need 3 quality pitchers...which everyone seems to agree on...(just not where they can come from).  The team that scored one less run in 17 than 16 finished in last place.  And while pitching was the easiest and most important reason...its not the only one.

In 2016 the O's scored 744 runs in 17 743.  That was good enough for 7th in the AL in '16 and 8th in '17.  The pitchers gave up 715 in '16 and 841 in '17.  That moved them from 10th in the AL in '16 to 14th.  The teams that scored the most in 16 were the Redsox and Indians...they played for the ALCS.  The teams that scored the most in '17...the Astros and Yankees.

This team eeked into the playoffs in '16 and exited quickly.  The easy story is they failed to improve on pitching.  But this team as currently constructed is miles from being where the Astros, Yankees, Redsox and Indians are.  Three pitchers from your list will certainly put em in the hunt like this year.  But can you really expect a team that is below average defensively up the middle and playing two one dimensional players everyday to really compete in October.

I do think it is possible...I'm not denying that.  And Frobby above said that "going for it" for Baltimore means competing for WC and that is certainly better than being eliminated in June or July...but I would personally have a higher bar and as much as I want to believe...I believe removing one or both of Davis/Trumbo is necessary to compete...even with better pitching.

Happy to be wrong though and will certainly be ready to drink Koolaid in March.

Your stuck with AJ in CF and CD at 1B. You are not trading Britton or Manny. You might be able to move Trumbo leaving room to upgrade at COF.  We should get decent offense from Caleb and Sisco at C. Better to spend the 35- 40 M we have on SP and hope for some improvement from Many, Beckham and CD.

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31 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Your stuck with AJ in CF and CD at 1B. You are not trading Britton or Manny. You might be able to move Trumbo leaving room to upgrade at COF.  We should get decent offense from Caleb and Sisco at C. Better to spend the 35- 40 M we have on SP and hope for some improvement from Many, Beckham and CD.

I concede that what you say is likely.  I am just saying that those parameters do not make for a playoff contender without almost everything going right or better.

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41 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I concede that what you say is likely.  I am just saying that those parameters do not make for a playoff contender without almost everything going right or better.

The important thing is the Pythagorean. If the SP is up graded to have fewer RA than 2016, then we don't need to score that many more runs than 2017. If two of Manny, Trumbo, Davis, or Beckham have better years we should do that.

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29 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

The important thing is the Pythagorean. If the SP is up graded to have fewer RA than 2016, then we don't need to score that many more runs than 2017. If two of Manny, Trumbo, Davis, or Beckham have better years we should do that.

That of course assumes a lot....most errantly, that 2016 performance, that wasn't good enough in 2017...will be in 2018.  It won't.  Last year when the Orioles finished 7th in the AL in runs with 744 they were only 33 runs out of second place in the league.  The 744 runs in '16 were above league average by 13 runs.  The 743 runs in 2017, while scoring just one run less, were in nearly the same spot in the league finishing 8th.  However they were below league average by 20 runs and they were 115 runs out of second place in the league.  This is not a modest difference and the places where you are looking for improved play are not from kids coming into their own but guys on the wrong side of 30.  

The above also assumes that Mancini will not have a sophomore slump, that AJ does not continue to decline, and that Schoop takes another step forward or at least does not regress. I will grant that Manny can have a monster year, but Beckham having a stronger year than his time here with the O's this year would be tough to top for a full year.  That means one of Trumbo or Davis again needs a big improvement and unfortunately both will play.  And it assumes that Mancini will not have a sophomore slump, that AJ does not continue to decline, and that Schoop takes another step forward or at least does not regress.

I hope so...but again, I don't see it.  And honestly, we agree on too many points here to continue, so Ill sum up by saying O's can compete, need to get 3 pitchers of quality but our difference is that to be competitive I believe one of Davis or Trumbo has to go, you think just one of them needs to improve and that that is likely.

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1 minute ago, foxfield said:

That of course assumes a lot....most errantly, that 2016 performance, that wasn't good enough in 2017...will be in 2018.  It won't.  Last year when the Orioles finished 7th in the AL in runs with 744 they were only 33 runs out of second place in the league.  The 744 runs in '16 were above league average by 13 runs.  The 743 runs in 2017, while scoring just one run less, were in nearly the same spot in the league finishing 8th.  However they were below league average by 20 runs and they were 115 runs out of second place in the league.  This is not a modest difference and the places where you are looking for improved play are not from kids coming into their own but guys on the wrong side of 30.  

The above also assumes that Mancini will not have a sophomore slump, that AJ does not continue to decline, and that Schoop takes another step forward or at least does not regress. I will grant that Manny can have a monster year, but Beckham having a stronger year than his time here with the O's this year would be tough to top for a full year.  That means one of Trumbo or Davis again needs a big improvement and unfortunately both will play.  And it assumes that Mancini will not have a sophomore slump, that AJ does not continue to decline, and that Schoop takes another step forward or at least does not regress.

I hope so...but again, I don't see it.  And honestly, we agree on too many points here to continue, so Ill sum up by saying O's can compete, need to get 3 pitchers of quality but our difference is that to be competitive I believe one of Davis or Trumbo has to go, you think just one of them needs to improve and that that is likely.

I should know better than to respond to someone who feels the need to write essays when the point can be made in a few sentences. AJ did not decline significantly with the bat,  Beckham need only to be career average .755 OPS to be an offensive upgrade at SS. If one of CD/Trumbo improves that's gravy. We also have the possibility of Hays and Santander being productive.

 

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7 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

I should know better than to respond to someone who feels the need to write essays when the point can be made in a few sentences. AJ did not decline significantly with the bat,  Beckham need only to be career average .755 OPS to be an offensive upgrade at SS. If one of CD/Trumbo improves that's gravy. We also have the possibility of Hays and Santander being productive.

 

I’d say it’s more or less a coin flip whether the offense will be better or worse in 2018.     Here’s what I’d guess:

C - worse

1B - better

2B - worse

3B - better

SS -.better

LF - toss-up

CF - worse

RF - worse

DH - better

I could be wrong on every single one of these, but on a macro level, that’s why I say it’s a coin flip.

 

 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

I should know better than to respond to someone who feels the need to write essays when the point can be made in a few sentences. AJ did not decline significantly with the bat,  Beckham need only to be career average .755 OPS to be an offensive upgrade at SS. If one of CD/Trumbo improves that's gravy. We also have the possibility of Hays and Santander being productive.

 

Yes

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37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d say it’s more or less a coin flip whether the offense will be better or worse in 2018.     Here’s what I’d guess:

C - worse

1B - better

2B - worse

3B - better

SS -.better

LF - toss-up

CF - worse

RF - worse

DH - better

I could be wrong on every single one of these, but on a macro level, that’s why I say it’s a coin flip.

 

 

 

 

C - worse than  .791 OPS yes

1B - better than .789 maybe

2B - worse than .819 probably

3B - better than .779 most likely

SS -.better than ..682 most likely

LF - toss-up .702 better

CF - worse than .766 same

RF - worse than .759 tossup

DH - better than .668 better

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14 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

C - worse than  .791 OPS yes

1B - better than .789 maybe

2B - worse than .819 probably

3B - better than .779 most likely

SS -.better than ..682 most likely

LF - toss-up .702 better

CF - worse than .766 same

RF - worse than .759 tossup

DH - better than .668 better

I didn’t do it this way.   For my purposes, 1B = Davis, LF = Mancini, DH = Trumbo.   

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