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Should the Orioles sign Andrew Cashner and Jason Vargas?


Diehard_O's_Fan

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21 minutes ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

 Should the Orioles sign Andrew Cashner and Jason Vargas? Would these guys be an upgrade for the Orioles? The Orioles beat writers seem to think that the Orioles will make a serious attempt to sign both of these guys. Thoughts?

Signing Cashner as anything more than an inning vacuum is a terrible idea.  Yes he had a 3.40 ERA last year, but he had horrendous peripheral stats. He posted his lowest fastball velocity of his career, down over 4 mph from it's peak.  He also got the lowest rate of swings and misses in his career.  It's Gallardo part two, a guy who is seriously declining but has a deceptively good ERA and is about to fall off a cliff in terms of productivity.  Worse than that, he's older than Gallardo was and further along in his decline than Gallardo was when the Orioles signed him.

As for Vargas, I'd bring back Miley instead if the prices were the same.  Vargas is a pure junkballer, who throws in the mid 80s.  His 2017 season was just ok and he played half of his games in Kauffman Stadium.  He'll start next season at 35 so no reason to hope for improvement.  Miley on the other hand is younger, hasn't lost any stuff, just had troubles throwing strikes.  I'd rather bet on a guy who has had decent control most of his career getting it back, than betting on a much older guy with a 85mph fastball not declining further.

 

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8 hours ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

 Should the Orioles sign Andrew Cashner and Jason Vargas? Would these guys be an upgrade for the Orioles? The Orioles beat writers seem to think that the Orioles will make a serious attempt to sign both of these guys. Thoughts?

Yes I think so. Anyway I hope so. 

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7 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Signing Cashner as anything more than an inning vacuum is a terrible idea.  Yes he had a 3.40 ERA last year, but he had horrendous peripheral stats. He posted his lowest fastball velocity of his career, down over 4 mph from it's peak.  He also got the lowest rate of swings and misses in his career.  It's Gallardo part two, a guy who is seriously declining but has a deceptively good ERA and is about to fall off a cliff in terms of productivity.  Worse than that, he's older than Gallardo was and further along in his decline than Gallardo was when the Orioles signed him.

As for Vargas, I'd bring back Miley instead if the prices were the same.  Vargas is a pure junkballer, who throws in the mid 80s.  His 2017 season was just ok and he played half of his games in Kauffman Stadium.  He'll start next season at 35 so no reason to hope for improvement.  Miley on the other hand is younger, hasn't lost any stuff, just had troubles throwing strikes.  I'd rather bet on a guy who has had decent control most of his career getting it back, than betting on a much older guy with a 85mph fastball not declining further.

 

He's 35? I didn't realize that. 

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7 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Signing Cashner as anything more than an inning vacuum is a terrible idea.  Yes he had a 3.40 ERA last year, but he had horrendous peripheral stats. He posted his lowest fastball velocity of his career, down over 4 mph from it's peak.  He also got the lowest rate of swings and misses in his career.  It's Gallardo part two, a guy who is seriously declining but has a deceptively good ERA and is about to fall off a cliff in terms of productivity.  Worse than that, he's older than Gallardo was and further along in his decline than Gallardo was when the Orioles signed him.

As for Vargas, I'd bring back Miley instead if the prices were the same.  Vargas is a pure junkballer, who throws in the mid 80s.  His 2017 season was just ok and he played half of his games in Kauffman Stadium.  He'll start next season at 35 so no reason to hope for improvement.  Miley on the other hand is younger, hasn't lost any stuff, just had troubles throwing strikes.  I'd rather bet on a guy who has had decent control most of his career getting it back, than betting on a much older guy with a 85mph fastball not declining further.

 

I didn't realize these two pitchers were so bad. 

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8 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Signing Cashner as anything more than an inning vacuum is a terrible idea.  Yes he had a 3.40 ERA last year, but he had horrendous peripheral stats. He posted his lowest fastball velocity of his career, down over 4 mph from it's peak.  He also got the lowest rate of swings and misses in his career.  It's Gallardo part two, a guy who is seriously declining but has a deceptively good ERA and is about to fall off a cliff in terms of productivity.  Worse than that, he's older than Gallardo was and further along in his decline than Gallardo was when the Orioles signed him.

As for Vargas, I'd bring back Miley instead if the prices were the same.  Vargas is a pure junkballer, who throws in the mid 80s.  His 2017 season was just ok and he played half of his games in Kauffman Stadium.  He'll start next season at 35 so no reason to hope for improvement.  Miley on the other hand is younger, hasn't lost any stuff, just had troubles throwing strikes.  I'd rather bet on a guy who has had decent control most of his career getting it back, than betting on a much older guy with a 85mph fastball not declining further.

 

What is your alternative?

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I'm not high on Cashner, but I think Vargas is a better pitcher than Miley. Maybe not by much,  but a better pitcher.

Vargas was far better last year, but even looking at their career stats I think it shows:

Career ERA:

Vargas- 4.17

Miley- 4.38

Career ERA+

Vargas- 96

Mikey- 93

Career WHIP-

Vargas- 1.312

Miley- 1.400

Career WAR-

Vargas- 15.9

Miley- 8.3

 

I know Vargas is 34 years old right now and Miley is only 30, but it's noteable that Vargas hasn't actually thrown that many more innings in his career. (1401.1 compared with 1155.2). Not to mention Wade Miley probably wouldn't have as much confidence coming back to Camden Yards after his awful last season, as Vargas would, coming off his first All Star year.

Gimme Vargas over Miley if it's the same price.

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10 hours ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

 Should the Orioles sign Andrew Cashner and Jason Vargas? Would these guys be an upgrade for the Orioles? The Orioles beat writers seem to think that the Orioles will make a serious attempt to sign both of these guys. Thoughts?

Sure, they will replace Jimenez and Miley. We will get about the same results and wonder why we could not compete with the Sox and Yanks. But we win enough to still be in the top three in wins over the last five years or so; this constitutes success for this organization.

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Interesting question in op.  Should the ORIOLES sign Andrew Cashner and Jason Vargas?  I think the numbness of how historically bad the starting pitching was for the Orioles in '17 still hasn't worn off.  The good news is virtually everyone in baseball was better than the Orioles mix of Tillman, Hellickson, Miley and Ubaldo.  Therefore, it might be difficult for DD to not improve the pitching from where it is.  The bad news, if the headline moves to improve Oriole starting pitching includes these two, we might realize that being better than last year in starting pitching is easy, being good enough to actually compete, covers considerably more ground.  

 

Id like both of these guys, if say Cobb is signed.  Still leaves room for more starters from internal choices.  Tillman may rebound, and I will root for him to do so.  But I hope it is not here.  

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