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Should the Orioles sign Andrew Cashner and Jason Vargas?


Diehard_O's_Fan

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33 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Don't care for either one. Vargas ' age and terrible second half. Cashner in decline. Prefer Chatwood and one of Lynn/Cobb.

 

I generally agree, though I'd much prefer Cobb to Lynn and Chatwood's walk rate is concerning to the point where I wouldn't extend too far to try and land him.

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I think they're probably looking at short of a deal can they find. Let's be honest, after 2018 it's all downhill until the next solid core manifests itself through the farm. I want to see Cobb or a trade for a solid #2 but we are more likely to see a Tillman one year deal, a trade for a one year pitcher like Shields, Kazmir, or Harvey (I'm not enthused either), and maybe another veteran (not gonna lie, if Dickey doesn't retire i would love to see him play for Buck). 

 

Im trying to have high hopes but the more I read about Vargas and Cashner the less I think that 2018 will be worth getting cable for masn. 

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7 minutes ago, oriole said:

I think they're probably looking at short of a deal can they find. Let's be honest, after 2018 it's all downhill until the next solid core manifests itself through the farm. I want to see Cobb or a trade for a solid #2 but we are more likely to see a Tillman one year deal, a trade for a one year pitcher like Shields, Kazmir, or Harvey (I'm not enthused either), and maybe another veteran (not gonna lie, if Dickey doesn't retire i would love to see him play for Buck). 

 

Im trying to have high hopes but the more I read about Vargas and Cashner the less I think that 2018 will be worth getting cable for masn. 

After the 2011 season, some fans were in the dumps, and they thought 2012 was not going to be any good, either.

They needed SPs,  Left COF, 2nd baseman and a closer.

The off-season was extremely quiet, DD traded Johnson away for Weeks, they did sign Ryan Webb, but that was it.

Roch graded the off-season as a D-.

In spite of all that, they went on to win 93 games and win the wildcard and make the playoffs.

We shall see what 2018 brings!

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1 hour ago, oriole said:

I think they're probably looking at short of a deal can they find. Let's be honest, after 2018 it's all downhill until the next solid core manifests itself through the farm. I want to see Cobb or a trade for a solid #2 but we are more likely to see a Tillman one year deal, a trade for a one year pitcher like Shields, Kazmir, or Harvey (I'm not enthused either), and maybe another veteran (not gonna lie, if Dickey doesn't retire i would love to see him play for Buck). 

 

Im trying to have high hopes but the more I read about Vargas and Cashner the less I think that 2018 will be worth getting cable for masn. 

This doesn't have to be the case!  The O's can reload for 2019, they just need to avoid shortsighted moves to compete in 2018 and they need one or more of Hays, Santander, Mullins, and Stewart to hit.

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36 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

This doesn't have to be the case!  The O's can reload for 2019, they just need to avoid shortsighted moves to compete in 2018 and they need one or more of Hays, Santander, Mullins, and Stewart to hit.

I think if they're reloading for 2019 then you need see at least Machado and Britton moved this winter which I don't see happening.   I started out feeling okay about the offseason because I thought guys like Lynn and Cobb were possibilities. Now that I see Cashner and Vargas being pushed it is clear this team is going nowhere and I'm kind of wishing they'd do the rebuild. 

 

I think all the players you mentioned are decent enough that they may be okay players but that is still a few years off and honestly, you need some superstar talent somewhere on the team to compete. Long term outside of Schoop there is absolutely nothing.

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6 hours ago, jamalshw said:

 

I generally agree, though I'd much prefer Cobb to Lynn and Chatwood's walk rate is concerning to the point where I wouldn't extend too far to try and land him.

Chatwood looks a lot better on the road and he has a 58% GB rate, He's 28 and wont cost much.

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8 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

The Orioles aren’t the type of team that can afford to pay free agent rates for marginal improvements.

What’s Vargas at this point? A marginally better Jayson Aquino.

What’s Cashner at this point? A marginally better Mike Wright.

Maybe I’m being a bit hyperbolic but if you are going to watch a pitcher struggle, wouldn’t you rather it be a guy who if he does pitch well, the Orioles control for 5 years at a reasonable cost.

I think you are overdoing it here.... Cashner is an MLB pitcher with a track record of success. With a 3.8 ccareer ERa 3.4 this season and 4.7 WAR pitcher in 2017.

As of now Mike Wright is a AAAA player

I know you don't like Cashner but let's keep it real!

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2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think you are overdoing it here.... Cashner is an MLB pitcher with a track record of success. With a 3.8 ccareer ERa 3.4 this season and 4.7 WAR pitcher in 2017.

As of now Mike Wright is a AAAA player

I know you don't like Cashner but let's keep it real!

I just can't get past the 4.6 K/9 and the 3.5 BB/9.

That tells me he doesn't have the stuff he used to and he knows it so he pitches around guys.

You have to admit that is what we saw with Gallardo.  Gallardo also put up a 3.42 ERA, in Texas, (4.1 rWAR) the year before the O's signed him.

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6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think you are overdoing it here.... Cashner is an MLB pitcher with a track record of success. With a 3.8 ccareer ERa 3.4 this season and 4.7 WAR pitcher in 2017.

As of now Mike Wright is a AAAA player

I know you don't like Cashner but let's keep it real!

 

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I just can't get past the 4.6 K/9 and the 3.5 BB/9.

That tells me he doesn't have the stuff he used to and he knows it so he pitches around guys.

You have to admit that is what we saw with Gallardo.  Gallardo also put up a 3.42 ERA, in Texas, (4.1 rWAR) the year before the O's signed him.

Yeah, I compared Cashner to Gallardo in another post.

And Roll Tide, of course I was going a little overboard comparing him to Mike Wright, but in my defense I said that Cashner would be a marginal improvement over Wright (just not worth the price difference) and I clearly said I was being a bit hyperbolic aka overdoing it.

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Cashner's 2018 Steamer Projection

  K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BA  GB%     ERA FIP xFIP

6.11 3.43 1.29 .303   47.1 %   5.00 4.94 4.97

Wright's 2018 Steamer Projection

6.74 3.24 1.75 .294   40.8 %   5.41 5.43 5.13

 

Vargas actually projects to be better than Cashner, but then again, so does Miley.  Internally, Lucas Long projects to an almost identical line to Cashner.

Edit: projections aren't a great way to look at guys without much major league experience, but it is scary to look at Cashner's projection, especially if a team is thinking of giving him more than 1 year.

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On 11/8/2017 at 12:44 AM, MDtransplant757 said:

Andrew Cashner, sure. His FIP was outragous compared to his ERA, but I think a good chunk of that is poor defensive play this year in Texas. Vargas, I’ll put it to you this way. 

Isn’t that the exact opposite of how FIP supposedly works?     The whole point of FIP is to be fielding independent.    A FIP much higher than his ERA suggests he benefitted from above average fielding, not the opposite.   

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