Buyers Remorse - Bedard

[Moose Milligan]

Talk about hitting the nail on the head. This is the kind of stuff that baseball people talk about when they talk about heart or lack thereof.

Bedard will still end up with good numbers by the end of the year because he is a good pitcher, but he was never a true ace in my opinion because of stuff like this.

Give me a Roy Halladay who doesn't have his best stuff but gets his team into the 8th often anyday...

I see where you're coming from but I stop just short of criticizing them for lack of heart.

Yes, it's romanced to speak of pitchers who battle when weary and don't want to come out of games...

...but something also should be said for a pitcher who knows he's gassed and staying in the game would do some damage and thinks that a fresh reliever could help the team win the game. Because at the end of the day, that's what matters.

[now]

A while ago I took another look at Bedard's track record and realized what a gamble it was for Bavasi - as Erik has really only had one dominant season (2007). "Rolling the dice" says it well ...

Meanwhile, back on "the wet coast," I wonder if Bedard is having buyee's remorse, as well -- going by the weather widget at the top of that news page:

Today's Weather

Overcast

Current: 49°F / Feels like: 47°F

High: 58°F / Low: 47°F

[Frobby]

Talk about hitting the nail on the head. This is the kind of stuff that baseball people talk about when they talk about heart or lack thereof.

Bedard will still end up with good numbers by the end of the year because he is a good pitcher, but he was never a true ace in my opinion because of stuff like this.

Give me a Roy Halladay who doesn't have his best stuff but gets his team into the 8th often anyday...

Tony, I know what you mean, but in this day and age Halladay is almost one of a kind. In 2007 he had 7 complete games - only three TEAMS other than Toronto had that many or more. This year he has five complete games - only one other TEAM can match that. So if Bedard is not Halladay, he's not alone. When it comes to going deep into games, Halladay is the guttiest of any pitcher playing today. And by the way, he's far more pitch-efficient than most, averaging 13.7 pitches per inning this year, which is 2nd lowest in the AL. Bedard has never averaged fewer than 16.2 pitches per inning. He will throw as many pitches in 6 innings as Halladay does in 7 innings, so it's hardly surprising that Halladay goes deeper into games.

I also think the game yesterday is a pretty bad example. Bedard threw 99 piches in 5 innings on a very hot day - that's a lot of work. It's a known fact that it's not just how many pitches you throw, but how many pitches per inning. A guy who throws 99 pitches in 5 innings is going to be more tired than a guy who throws 99 pitches in 7 innings. And he wasn't exactly pitching in an air-conditioned dome. (By the way, Bedard threw 110 pitches and threw 7 shoutout innings against the Sox at Safeco back on May 28.)

I really don't mean to be vehemently disagreeing with your point, but I think this is more complicated than just how much heart a pitcher has.

[wildcard]

Bavasi may have misjudged but I don't think it was so much Bedard. It has been more the Mariner players are grossly underachieving.

The offense is 70 OPS point under last year. Most of that comes from players that Bavasi probably rightly expected to repeat last year.

OPS comparison

Name, 2007, 2008

Suzski, 827, 729

Ibanez, 831, 770

Beltre, 802, 745

Vidro, 775, 582

Same thing on pitching. Hernandez is one of the few that is doing well.

ERA comparison

Name, 2007, 2008

Hernandez, 3.92, 3.07

Washburn, 4.32, 6.32

Batista, 4.29, 6.56

Putz, 1.38, 5.50

Now how was Basvasi supposed to know that was going to happen?

The players that Bavasi misjudged on were not re-signing Guillen who had 23 HR and 99 RBI for him last year and signing Silva to a big contract. He has a 5.96 ERA this year.

So overall, Bedard is a small part of the misjudgement. Heck, Rowland-Smith has replaced Sherrill pretty nicely. Jones would not have saved Seattle to this point this year. Other then that we are talk minor leaguers.

Bedard has 4 wins. If they were projecting him for 18 wins he should have 7 by now. That's three wins below the Mariner project. That is not the Mariner major problems.

The players are are the problem in Seattle. They are not pulling their weigh and that will kill any GM.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think much of the complaining Seattle fans/writers are doing is a direct result of them being 16.5 games out of first place. They thought they were one good pitcher away from winning the West, and that was a serious misjudgment of a team that overachieved last year.

If a team like the Angels or White Sox or Cardinals had acquired Bedard you wouldn't hear a peep about any issues of heart or guts.

[Old#5fan]

One thing I never like about Bedard even when he was going good is he was a strikeout pitcher and in doing so rarely lasted past the 7th inning because of his pitch count. A manager always runs a risk of hurting a pitcher's arm like Bedard because of how he pitches. Give me a guy who gets the outs while economizing his pitchers (Andy Petite comes to mind) anyday. They are also less likely to develop arm trouble.

[Frobby]

Bavasi may have misjudged but I don't think it was so much Bedard. It has been more the Mariner players are grossly underachieving.

The offense is 70 OPS point under last year. Most of that comes from players that Bavasi probably rightly expected to repeat last year.

OPS comparison

Name, 2007, 2008

Suzski, 827, 729

Ibanez, 831, 770

Beltre, 802, 745

Vidro, 775, 582

Same thing on pitching. Hernandez is one of the few that is doing well.

ERA comparison

Name, 2007, 2008

Hernandez, 3.92, 3.07

Washburn, 4.32, 6.32

Batista, 4.29, 6.56

Putz, 1.38, 5.50

Now how was Basvasi supposed to know that was going to happen?

The players that Bavasi misjudged on were not re-signing Guillen who had 23 HR and 99 RBI for him last year and signing Silva to a big contract. He has a 5.96 ERA this year.

So overall, Bedard is a small part of the misjudgement. Heck, Rowland-Smith has replaced Sherrill pretty nicely. Jones would not have saved Seattle to this point this year. Other then that we are talk minor leaguers.

Bedard has 4 wins. If they were projecting him for 18 wins he should have 7 by now. That's three wins below the Mariner project. That is not the Mariner major problems.

The players are are the problem in Seattle. They are not pulling their weigh and that will kill any GM.

No question several Mariners players have not lived up to expectations, and that's why they are in last place. But there were a lot of commentators who said, at the time the Bedard trade was made, that Bavasi was kidding himself if he thought the Mariners were just one player away from being a serious contender. They won 88 games last year but they were actually outscored by about 20 runs and their pythagorean record was 79-83. They simply weren't as good as Bavasi thought.

[TiredofLosing20]

I guess I think the mistake that he made was less about getting Bedard, as many of you have said, Bedard will end up with good numbers, he is due for one of his 7 game winning streaks, but Bavasi's error was in over estimating his teams talent. He clearly thought he was a #1 starter away from the World Series/Playoffs, but they have too many holes including the bullpen (i.e Sherril). Oh well it is nice to not be the one making the mistake for once.

[Flosman]

Tony, I know what you mean, but in this day and age Halladay is almost one of a kind. In 2007 he had 7 complete games - only three TEAMS other than Toronto had that many or more. This year he has five complete games - only one other TEAM can match that. So if Bedard is not Halladay, he's not alone. When it comes to going deep into games, Halladay is the guttiest of any pitcher playing today. And by the way, he's far more pitch-efficient than most, averaging 13.7 pitches per inning this year, which is 2nd lowest in the AL. Bedard has never averaged fewer than 16.2 pitches per inning. He will throw as many pitches in 6 innings as Halladay does in 7 innings, so it's hardly surprising that Halladay goes deeper into games.

I also think the game yesterday is a pretty bad example. Bedard threw 99 piches in 5 innings on a very hot day - that's a lot of work. It's a known fact that it's not just how many pitches you throw, but how many pitches per inning. A guy who throws 99 pitches in 5 innings is going to be more tired than a guy who throws 99 pitches in 7 innings. And he wasn't exactly pitching in an air-conditioned dome. (By the way, Bedard threw 110 pitches and threw 7 shoutout innings against the Sox at Safeco back on May 28.)

I really don't mean to be vehemently disagreeing with your point, but I think this is more complicated than just how much heart a pitcher has.

Frobby to add to your point, yesterday on SNR during the game the host were commenting on Bedard pitching over 40 pitches to get out of an inning. While he did escape giving up only one run, I think that likely took the stuff out of Bedard when combined with the heat. Bedard is a very good pitcher, unfortunately the Mariners are a bad team just like the O's and even having a legit #1 is not going to help them much.

[davearm]

No question several Mariners players have not lived up to expectations, and that's why they are in last place. But there were a lot of commentators who said, at the time the Bedard trade was made, that Bavasi was kidding himself if he thought the Mariners were just one player away from being a serious contender. They won 88 games last year but they were actually outscored by about 20 runs and their pythagorean record was 79-83. They simply weren't as good as Bavasi thought.

Nor is Bedard as good as Bavasi thought.

Not surprisingly, a leap from ~8 K/9 (career) to ~11 K/9 (2007) was not sustainable. At 11, the guy's great. At 8, he's merely good.

Bavasi obviously paid "great" prices when he got Bedard.

[Frobby]

Nor is Bedard as good as Bavasi thought.

Not surprisingly, a leap from ~8 K/9 (career) to ~11 K/9 (2007) was not sustainable. At 11, the guy's great. At 8, he's merely good.

Bavasi obviously paid "great" prices when he got Bedard.

You may be right about this, but I wouldn't leap to a conclusion just yet. Bedard is a guy who goes on dominant runs of 8-10 starts. Just because he hasn't yet this year, doesn't mean he won't. It was just about this time in 2006 when he started his big run that year.

[osfan83]

No doubt Bedard is a very good pitcher, but what bothered me is my perception of his additude. He strikes me as a guy who looks at baseball as a job, he has the talent and can make lots of money doing it. I've always enjoyed the players with a little less talent, but a tremendous passion for the game. I don't know if Erik "loves" what he does for a living. It's a job that pays well, that he happeneds to be very good at.

[Frobby]

No doubt Bedard is a very good pitcher, but what bothered me is my perception of his additude. He strikes me as a guy who looks at baseball as a job, he has the talent and can make lots of money doing it. I've always enjoyed the players with a little less talent, but a tremendous passion for the game. I don't know if Erik "loves" what he does for a living. It's a job that pays well, that he happeneds to be very good at.

From a recent article in which teammates and coaches asked Bedard questions:

Sam Perlozzo, Mariners third base coach:

"Do you have any fun out there?"

Bédard:

"I might be having fun, but you'll never know it. I might be miserable, but you'll never know it. Obviously, I love playing baseball, or I wouldn't be doing it. I love the competitiveness and the pressure."

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3422711

[osfan83]

From a recent article in which teammates and coaches asked Bedard questions:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3422711

Doesn't change my perception. Also doesn't mean I'm right.

[davearm]

You may be right about this, but I wouldn't leap to a conclusion just yet. Bedard is a guy who goes on dominant runs of 8-10 starts. Just because he hasn't yet this year, doesn't mean he won't. It was just about this time in 2006 when he started his big run that year.

Bedard does have a tendency to be streaky, I'd agree with you there.