Assume we don’t trade Manny and he walks

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Tell that to all the FA starters that will not come Baltimore  this offseason.  And to any of the FA starters the O's have to overpay to get to come to pitch in Camden Yards.   I guess we will just wait and see.

It's not just the ballpark, it is also the division and the physicals.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Tell that to all the FA starters that will not come Baltimore  this offseason.  And to any of the FA starters the O's have to overpay to get to come to pitch in Camden Yards.   I guess we will just wait and see.

They won't come to Baltimore not because of Camden Yards but because this organization is dysfunctional. 

[wildcard]

39 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

They won't come to Baltimore not because of Camden Yards but because this organization is dysfunctional. 

Yep, 3 playoff appearances in 6 years is really dysfunctional.

[Aristotelian]

6 hours ago, esmd said:

They can withstand the loss of Manny if they replace his production, and that can be done in a number of ways.

My issue is one of value.  If they let him leave as a FA rather than trading him, they're getting significantly less value back in return most likely.  I suppose the 2nd or 3rd round comp pick they get could turn into another HOFer, but odds are they'd do much better with getting 3-4 or more partially developed or even MLB-ready prospects back in a trade.

Even if they hit on the draft pick it will be 4+ years minimum before that guy makes it to the big leagues and probably another 2-3 years before he replaced Manny's production. And it is far more likely that he becomes another Wieters/Matusz/Gausman/Hobgood somewhere in the range between bust and mediocre MLB player.

[El Gordo]

18 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Even if they hit on the draft pick it will be 4+ years minimum before that guy makes it to the big leagues and probably another 2-3 years before he replaced Manny's production. And it is far more likely that he becomes another Wieters/Matusz/Gausman/Hobgood somewhere in the range between bust and mediocre MLB player.

Yeah the Orioles always suck, we never get any good players, might as well not even watch them, we'll just be disappointed again

[Aristotelian]

17 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Yeah the Orioles always suck, we never get any good players, might as well not even watch them, we'll just be disappointed again

That is not what I am saying at all. I am saying pathway back to rebuild may be faster if we get something back for Manny.

[El Gordo]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That is not what I am saying at all. I am saying pathway back to rebuild may be faster if we get something back for Manny.

Possibly, but we really wouldn't get that much now. One ML ready top prospect/player one or two lesser prospects.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, El Gordo said:

Possibly, but we really wouldn't get that much now. One ML ready top prospect/player one or two lesser prospects.

If one of those is one of the top 3 pitching prospects in MLB, give me a couple of lower tier prospects and you have a deal. 

[El Gordo]

23 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If one of those is one of the top 3 pitching prospects in MLB, give me a couple of lower tier prospects and you have a deal. 

I doubt it would be. Who needs a 3B to put them over the top?

[Tx Oriole]

21 hours ago, wildcard said:

Yep, 3 playoff appearances in 6 years is really dysfunctional.

Ownership hired Buck. Then hired a GM. Pitching is piss poor since Angelos became owner. Can't develop pitchers. The cronyism. 

[FanSince88]

On 11/10/2017 at 8:17 AM, Frobby said:

Does that mean we’re doomed to be a bad team for the next several years?

Sometimes I think we get too wrapped up in one player.    The O’s went 49-31 without Manny in 2014.   It’s never all about one player.

At the same time, the handling of Manny is symptomatic of how the organization has been run the last few years, and that’s not good.    It would take a lot of smart decisions to keep the O’s competitive over the next five years.   

It would be worse if we signed him.  Whether or not we have Manny, the success of this team depends on whether we can somehow assemble a competent pitching staff.  Sinking $30+ million AAV into Manny for 10 years is seriously going to hobble the ability of this organization to maintain quality at other positions, especially including pitching. 

How many times in your life as an Orioles fan have you ever honestly said "Gee, if only we just had more HITTING, we would have definitely made the playoffs."  We all know the answer is zero.  It starts and it ends with pitching.  2014 happened because we had 5 solid starting pitchers on the staff who gave the team a chance to win every game, and an elite bullpen.  

[Tx Oriole]

20 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Yeah the Orioles always suck, we never get any good players, might as well not even watch them, we'll just be disappointed again

lil Abner. Haven't seen that character in a long time. 

[El Gordo]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Depends what "over the top" means.   The Yankees just missed making the WS.    They could use a 3B.    They have some interesting pitching prospects too.

Yes Manny is a great fit for the MFY. But PA would never trade Manny to them. And they might not want to help improve the O's pitching. They'll wait util 2018-19 IMO.

[TradeAngelos]

On 11/10/2017 at 8:17 AM, Frobby said:

Does that mean we’re doomed to be a bad team for the next several years?

Sometimes I think we get too wrapped up in one player.    The O’s went 49-31 without Manny in 2014.   It’s never all about one player.

At the same time, the handling of Manny is symptomatic of how the organization has been run the last few years, and that’s not good.    It would take a lot of smart decisions to keep the O’s competitive over the next five years.   

Manny just isn't "one player". He is the equivalent of 3 very good players, at 26 years old all wrapped in one. He is a future Hall Of Famer. He is the very definition of the word "franchise player" that you build around. Not just let walk and say "oh no big deal we will find another one". 

So yeah, I'm definitely getting wrapped up in losing what is essentially 3 good players. And a cornerstone of the franchise player who might as well have his HOF bust carved out now. No organization that has any hope of winning or keeping a fanbase in tact let's those players walk and is better for it. And we haven't even talked about the off field damage it will do, and how much that will cost in the long run. If you think he is just "one player" watch what happens if he is gone. You think it was ugly 10 years ago.....you aint seen nothing yet. 

If it was me I'm paying pretty much any number that starts with a 10/3..... Whatever it takes. No opt out? Gonna take more. A huge chunk of deferred money that the entire board can count on the current year's payroll that doesn't exist? That will be missing to from his pocket too. Add some more to the total. 

They will make 20m of it right back the day that contract is signed, and then money year after year for the next 10. Or they can lose that amount year after year (along with LOTS of games), without Manny. It is up to them.   This deal isn't even about the money. The team will make it back easily in various ways unless he gets hit by a bus or struck by lightning. It is about the owner's willingness to win, or be more concerned about the bottom line and being as risk averse as possible like he usually is.  

But hey...your move Orioles. I will just sit back, with my money in my pocket (nice and safe like Pete likes it)......until a resolution one way or the other.  I have a feeling I won't be spending that money on the O's for the foreseeable future, if ever again. 

 

 

 

 

[TradeAngelos]

 

4 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

It would be worse if we signed him.  Whether or not we have Manny, the success of this team depends on whether we can somehow assemble a competent pitching staff.  Sinking $30+ million AAV into Manny for 10 years is seriously going to hobble the ability of this organization to maintain quality at other positions, especially including pitching. 

How many times in your life as an Orioles fan have you ever honestly said "Gee, if only we just had more HITTING, we would have definitely made the playoffs."  We all know the answer is zero.  It starts and it ends with pitching.  2014 happened because we had 5 solid starting pitchers on the staff who gave the team a chance to win every game, and an elite bullpen.  

Please someone make it stop.