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Statcasts’ “Outs Above Average” Outfield Metric


Frobby

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Statcast has come out with a defensive metric called “Outs Above Average” based on their Catch Probability evaluation for each fly ball than an outfielder fielded.     Here’s how the Orioles fared:

Rickard +5

Santander 0

Smith 0

Flaherty -1

Hays -1

Mancini -5

Trumbo -5

Jones -7

Worth noting: throwing does not enter into these figures, and they are cumulative stats, not rate stats (i.e., Trumbo’s -5 in  31 OF starts is a lot worse than Mancini’s -5 in 87).

A full breakdown of each level of catch for all outfielders can be found here:  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard.  Per Statcast, Byron Buxton made the most catches above average in the majors (+25), while Matt Kemp was the furthest below average (-13).

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On 11/11/2017 at 7:42 AM, Es4M11 said:

Are there any metrics that show Jones is not a liability in CF?

Dan, please go get Jarrod Dyson this offseason!

I would only be in favor of this if it was a one year contract and they traded Mark Trumbo.  A Dyson, Jones, Hays OF with Mancini at DH is an alignment I could get behind. 

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On 11/11/2017 at 8:17 AM, Frobby said:

Statcast has come out with a defensive metric called “Outs Above Average” based on their Catch Probability evaluation for each fly ball than an outfielder fielded.     Here’s how the Orioles fared:

Rickard +5

Santander 0

Smith 0

Flaherty -1

Hays -1

Mancini -5

Trumbo -5

Jones -7

Worth noting: throwing does not enter into these figures, and they are cumulative stats, not rate stats (i.e., Trumbo’s -5 in  31 OF starts is a lot worse than Mancini’s -5 in 87).

A full breakdown of each level of catch for all outfielders can be found here:  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard.  Per Statcast, Byron Buxton made the most catches above average in the majors (+25), while Matt Kemp was the furthest below average (-13).

Why wouldn't they extrapolate this out as a rate stat over 162?  Trumbo for example would be -26.13.  It would make comparisons easier.  

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7 hours ago, ChuckS said:

I would only be in favor of this if it was a one year contract and they traded Mark Trumbo.  A Dyson, Jones, Hays OF with Mancini at DH is an alignment I could get behind. 

That is exactly what I proposed in another thread.

I would even be willing to go 2 years for Dyson if that is what it takes to get him here. Year 1, Dyson is the everyday CF against RHP,. against LHP sit him/use as late inning speed and defense. In year 2 he could be a 4th OFer and pinch runner. Also insurance in case Mullins is delayed for some reason.

I would literally give Trumbo away to make this happen. Addition by subtraction. This team needs to be retooled a bit, a little more speed and defense, a little less "hulk smash".

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