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Early 2018 predictions/expectations


billw76

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I blame a lot of the failure on the development staff in our organization. In the case of Matusz he got to the majors and you constantly heard about his delivery being messed with. 

The Orioles have been putrid in developing players since the late 1980s. 

Sure they got lucky every now and then ...but they haven't produced a TOR.... and Davis, Jones, Tillman etc came via trade

I agree that development has been putrid for a very long time.

If you go back and look at the drafts for most of the 14 year losing streak it's scary how few guys that were drafted actually made it to the majors, let alone ML contributors or stars. Add in that there is no real pipeline of prospects from Latin America to help boost the talent level and it makes things even worse.

 

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9 hours ago, billw76 said:

I agree that development has been putrid for a very long time.

If you go back and look at the drafts for most of the 14 year losing streak it's scary how few guys that were drafted actually made it to the majors, let alone ML contributors or stars. Add in that there is no real pipeline of prospects from Latin America to help boost the talent level and it makes things even worse.

 

It's one thing that has honestly improved under DD's tenure.  I've seen a number of prospects take steps forward the past couple years and also a bunch of players overachieving their pedigree.  I took a little while because the 2014 draft was poor partially due to not having a pick until #90 and Connaughton peacing out for the NBA.  However, the 2013 draft was very good, the 2015 draft works at the top, and the 2016 draft looks very good in early returns.  2017 is to soon to tell, but it does look like it's strong through round 5 with a few nuggets later on.  

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On 11/28/2017 at 12:45 PM, Roll Tide said:

I confidently predict we will finish dead last in the AL East. The team needs to rebuild, and leadership is too stupid to do what needs to be done. In order to actually compete you need to add a #1, #3, and # 5 starter to the mix and simply are unwilling to make the necessary financial commitment to get it done. Even if they were it would be a difficult task considering what is available.

I agree that as currently situated, the Orioles are a good bet to finish last.  Of course it is November and it's pretty easy to make that assessment today.  The re-emergence of the Yankees and Red Sox most definitely increase the hill that the Orioles must climb.  You are correct that they need a 1, 3 and 5 to really step into the competition.  I do not agree that leadership is too stupid to get this done.  I do think that in spite of PA making some strides, he continues to embrace a management structure that is fractured and intentionally self competing.  I think that is stupid...

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3 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

It's one thing that has honestly improved under DD's tenure.  I've seen a number of prospects take steps forward the past couple years and also a bunch of players overachieving their pedigree.  I took a little while because the 2014 draft was poor partially due to not having a pick until #90 and Connaughton peacing out for the NBA.  However, the 2013 draft was very good, the 2015 draft works at the top, and the 2016 draft looks very good in early returns.  2017 is to soon to tell, but it does look like it's strong through round 5 with a few nuggets later on.  

I definitely agree it's gotten better under Duquette, and it started under MacPhail. 

One big change that needs to happen though is more needs to be done to bring international talent into the farm system. I don't blame Duquette for that, I think that philosophy comes straight from Angelos. I'm at work and don't have time to research right now but how many of the slot money trades have actually helped the team? I'm not talking about filling minor league rosters but at the ML level. I just don't understand why this team refuses to sign international prospects. 

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15 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I blame a lot of the failure on the development staff in our organization. In the case of Matusz he got to the majors and you constantly heard about his delivery being messed with. 

The Orioles have been putrid in developing players since the late 1980s. 

Sure they got lucky every now and then ...but they haven't produced a TOR.... and Davis, Jones, Tillman etc came via trade

Mussina was a  bonafide TOR and the Orioles did produce him.

He belongs in the HOF.

Career WAR is 82.7

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6 minutes ago, billw76 said:

I definitely agree it's gotten better under Duquette, and it started under MacPhail. 

One big change that needs to happen though is more needs to be done to bring international talent into the farm system. I don't blame Duquette for that, I think that philosophy comes straight from Angelos. I'm at work and don't have time to research right now but how many of the slot money trades have actually helped the team? I'm not talking about filling minor league rosters but at the ML level. I just don't understand why this team refuses to sign international prospects. 

There hasn't been much of an impact, if any, at the MLB level, surely nowhere near the impact of actually scouting and signing good IFAs (not even talking about the 1mil+ ones).

There are some 2 guys who are actually (at least in my opinion) prospects, Brallan Perez and Yefry Ramirez.  Wotherspoon and Fry may have some usefulness as well (but not much upside).  Milton Ramos has some upside (good tools) but is bad at baseball, so he could be a late bloomer or not get past A+ ball.

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16 minutes ago, billw76 said:

I definitely agree it's gotten better under Duquette, and it started under MacPhail. 

One big change that needs to happen though is more needs to be done to bring international talent into the farm system. I don't blame Duquette for that, I think that philosophy comes straight from Angelos. I'm at work and don't have time to research right now but how many of the slot money trades have actually helped the team? I'm not talking about filling minor league rosters but at the ML level. I just don't understand why this team refuses to sign international prospects. 

We can conjecture Angelos but have the O's via DD, Buck or MASN ever stated why we don''t participate in meaningful international talent?  They probably won't ever do that.  Is it PA's economic, political (paying boscones?, etc.) or other reasons?  Or is it simply a budget decision made by DD?  He has $$ to spend as he chooses (with some PA oversight) and he chooses to spend it as he feels he gets the most bang for the buck (pun intended  ;-) ) in the short term.

Asking for a friend....

 

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5 minutes ago, bobmc said:

We can conjecture Angelos but have the O's via DD, Buck or MASN ever stated why we don''t participate in meaningful international talent?  They probably won't ever do that.  Is it PA's economic, political (paying boscones?, etc.) or other reasons?  Or is it simply a budget decision made by DD?  He has $$ to spend as he chooses (with some PA oversight) and he chooses to spend it as he feels he gets the most bang for the buck (pun intended  ;-) ) in the short term.

Asking for a friend....

 

During the McPhail era, Matt Klentak stated that the Orioles had conducted a study and had concluded that spending a lot of money on international free agents was not cost justified.    However, (1) the rules governing international signings have changed a lot since then and have suppressed the cost, and (2) MacPhail and Klentak have shown no reluctance to spend on international talent now that they’re in Philadelphia.    I think it’s fair to infer from this that the avoidance of international spending comes from the top, and is probably based on outdated data and logic.   

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22 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Matusz was considered a 4 pitch pitcher (5 if you count his two seam fastball) when drafted.

This is from a 2009 MLB scouting report.

Scouting report: He's a lefty with stuff and command. He can get his fastball up to 94 mph and has two outstanding breaking pitches, a curve and slider. His changeup is an above-average offering, as well. He throws strikes and keeps it down in the zone. Matusz is a terrific competitor and has plus mound presence.

LOL after reading the scouting report I want him back... 

NOT!!! xD

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46 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

There hasn't been much of an impact, if any, at the MLB level, surely nowhere near the impact of actually scouting and signing good IFAs (not even talking about the 1mil+ ones).

There are some 2 guys who are actually (at least in my opinion) prospects, Brallan Perez and Yefry Ramirez.  Wotherspoon and Fry may have some usefulness as well (but not much upside).  Milton Ramos has some upside (good tools) but is bad at baseball, so he could be a late bloomer or not get past A+ ball.

I'm fine with not chasing the $1 million plus guys myself, it's the lower/mid guys we should target because we can add more of them increasing the odds of one of them succeeding.

 

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9 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Mussina was a  bonafide TOR and the Orioles did produce him.

He belongs in the HOF.

Career WAR is 82.7

One of very few ...drafted in the 1st round out of Stanford in 1990 .but I get your point.  Since then most of the 27 1st round picks have been pitcher that were major busts

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11 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

One of very few ...drafted in the 1st round out of Stanford in 1990 .but I get your point.  Since then most of the 27 1st round picks have been pitcher that were major busts

You make a valid point that they have done a very poor job, just cant say nobody.

It takes years to determine how well the draft is, so hopefully Bundy, Gausman, Harvey and others will point that they are doing a better job.

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1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

You make a valid point that they have done a very poor job, just cant say nobody.

It takes years to determine how well the draft is, so hopefully Bundy, Gausman, Harvey and others will point that they are doing a better job.

Agreed but I think the amount of serious arm injuries by our high draft pick pitchers says a lot as well.

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15 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Agreed but I think the amount of serious arm injuries by our high draft pick pitchers says a lot as well.

Do you have any evidence that the Orioles have had more injuries than other organizations? It seems that everybody is having TJ these days.

It is disappointing that we haven't had another Mussina in many years but we have done OK on position players. Manny, Schoop.

Our development record wouldn't be too bad if we still had Arrieta, Davies, and Hader. 

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16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Agreed but I think the amount of serious arm injuries by our high draft pick pitchers says a lot as well.

I think thats something around the league, we just know more about "our" guys.

Injuries are probably a leading cause of why 7 out of 10 pitching prospects fail.

 

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