Pantient Rebuilt - Aggressive Reload

[Redskins Rick]

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2017/12/the-debate-between-patient-rebuild-and-aggressive-reload.html

I think Roch is using OH for his material.

We have been posting on this topic on this board, for some time.

Neither is wrong either, its their opinion on what the team should do.

Roch's title mentioned two sides, but his article included a third opinion and middle ground.

If we knew what the Owner was thinking, it might make more sense to us, what they are doing about 2019 and beyond.

[Aristotelian]

I actually just had a post in draft with some quotes from the article. I also found it noteworthy and would like to see Roch do this type of column more often, especially in the hot stove season.

This may be the strongest opinion I have seen Roch express rather than just conveying the conventional wisdom of the organization. He makes a strong case IMO for either all in or full rebuild, with no in between. The middle ground has been DD's modus operandi during his whole time in Baltimore, and while that has led to one divisional title and three playoff appearances, it hasn't gotten further than a disappointing ALCS, and now we are coming off a last place finish with several big names. I'm also surprised the Hunter Harvey is mentioned as part of the "all in" option "perhaps later this summer." 

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2017/12/the-debate-between-patient-rebuild-and-aggressive-reload.html

...Middle ground is a mistake. It’s bad property. A sinkhole that leads to last place.

You can’t hold onto these players and only tweak the rotation with cost-efficient fill-ins and think a division title is within reach, especially with the Yankees and Red Sox back in beast mode. Anything can happen, but it seems like spinning wheels in the mud and expecting to lunge forward...

If the Orioles insist on holding onto the biggest trade chips among their pending free agents, they might have to move beyond their financial comfort zone to obtain the necessary pitching. I’m not referring to Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. It’s the potential cost for the likes of Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn.

They also must scour the trade market and be less reluctant to part with certain prospects if it nets them a difference-maker for the rotation. Again, this is going for it, this is being all-in in 2018.

The Orioles are counting on Hunter Harvey eventually joining Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy to secure three-fifths of the rotation. Perhaps later this summer. It’s a “grow the arms” dream come true, exactly how they insist that it must be done in Baltimore. Farm to table.

In the meantime, they require a substantial upgrade for the upper portion of the rotation. They can fill another spot with someone like Jason Vargas, a needed left-hander, or anyone else from the middle-tier pile. Tyler Chatwood, Miguel González, whomever. And wait for Harvey to take his rightful place.

Lay back and rebuild, with every effort to shorten the downtime rather than turning back the clock to the 2000s, or make bold moves to complement the core. There can’t be an in between unless you’re OK with banking on bounceback seasons and guys taking the proverbial next step.

If you’re comfortable camping out on the middle ground.

It’s not easy to part with such big pieces, especially a unique talent like Machado. He doesn’t come along in every draft and certainly doesn’t come to the Orioles on a regular basis. He’s in a special category and it’s painful to part with him.

Is it more painful to keep him for one more season and watch him leave via free agency without getting anyone in return? Because those are the likely choices.

Waving goodbye won’t sting as much if the hand returning the gesture is wearing a ring.

[maybenxtyr]

I'm in the full rebuild camp. I would target a couple of guys for extensions and move anybody who has some value. Honestly, I would make everyone available in trade if it improved the overall status of the team now and in the future. 

I appreciate what the Orioles have given me since 2012, but that run seems to be over. They could possibly do this and remain at or around .500 for a couple of years while they get some people in place.

[foxfield]

I think this is one of Roch's best news articles.  In general, It seems he passes info along and doesn't weigh too deeply into opinion.  I think this article really lays out the challenge.  And I think really either option is viable and if done properly, defendable.  I also think he absolutely nailed many of our biggest fears by calling out the elephant in the room.  The third option "middle ground' is wrong.  Excellent.

[Redskins Rick]

It made me rethink my current position, thats for sure.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Why would Dan rebuild without an extension?

[backwardsk]

8 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Why would Dan rebuild without an extension?

It's a good question.

Don't GMs usually get fired or have a transition plan in place when they leave?  Can people on here come up with examples of teams entering a season on the GM's final year without a transition plan and how they did?

 

[Bahama O's Fan]

If I'm Dan, I'm spending on winning this season until PA stops signing the checks

 

[big_sparxx]

It's our job to panic thank you very much. Roch needs to recognize that if he's not helping, he's only making us even more neurotic than normal.

Thee just isn't enough beer....

[Number5]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So the only real difference from going all in or not all in is Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn?      

 

If I read the article correctly, going all in is waiting for Hunter Harvey to be ready this summer, signing someone like Jason Vargas, Miguel, Gonzalez, etc.  remaining status quo on the lineup and getting either Cobb or Lynn.     We must not be that bad if we are one decent pitcher away from being all in.    Haha.

I'm pretty sure he said and, not or.  Both.

[Aristotelian]

41 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Why would Dan rebuild without an extension?

Roch seems to be arguing for all in, even more so than DD's usual middle ground approach.

[Redskins Rick]

Sometimes as fans we think too much with out heart, we get attached to "our guys" yet at the same time, being selfish fans, we want to win it all too.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Why would Dan rebuild without an extension?

Because he's a professional and an employee.  If the person who pays his salary wants him to rebuild then he does it to the best of his ability.  It's really that simple.  If he doesn't have specific guidance for 2018, undoubtly he has overall guidelines.  Something like "put the most competitive team possible on the field every year within the established budget."  That's probably the default and a lot of people don't think a rebuild is indicated, so I suspect it's business as usual anyway.  

I think the notion that Dan has the flexibility to operate in his own self-interest has been grossly exaggerated around here.  Even if he were somehow to do so, it would probably be noticed and impact his future employment opportunities elsewhere.   That's a significant disincentive.  He's a businessman with a lot of responsibility, not a cowboy.

[Can_of_corn]

46 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Sometimes as fans we think too much with out heart, we get attached to "our guys" yet at the same time, being selfish fans, we want to win it all too.

Yep, that's my problem in a nutshell.

[clapdiddy]

With the Yankees and Red Sox in this division and other WC-type teams a lot closer to competing than we are, I vote for a rebuild.   I realize that is not likely to happen based on Buck's and DD's statuses.  I'm prepared for about an 82-win team in 2018 and total uncertainty after this season.