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    • This is drastically underestimating Paredes
    • they did not. 2 big moves so far, bring in Fried and Williams, but lose Holmes anf Cortez, Not to mention Soto. Oblivious there not yet but as it stands now they are not as good. and god forbid Stanton regresses or Judge gets hurt. 
    • I think if you're going to spike the payroll this is the year to do it, with so much potentially coming back off next year.
    • Elias spending the $25M early, Roster Resource has us at $122M tonight, 19th in MLB. If we close Burnes, we hit 13th for a minute.    Any AAV between 29 and 44 lands us between SFG at $167M and BOS at $150M. That'd just be a momentary crest - we land Burnes to make $65M in new 2025 salary and we're near done while most of the Top 50 free agents still have jobs to get. But to the OP point, that'd set us at ~$160 with all the studs the cheapest they'll ever be again in 2025.    We will get to reconfigure about $35M next winter when Eflin, Mullins and Sanchez walk, and of course there's the calculation/hope O'Neill plays well enough to opt out. I do think the O's financial analysts deserve a little credit for finding a contract balance where the CLUB is hoping the player opts out too.
    • It's not SA vs TO or the platoon, it's 2024 ( Hayes, Cowser, Ced, and Tony vs Cowser, Ced Heston and TO and Maybe Mateo. All things being equal (injuries), I bet the 2025 outfield.
    • Adley needs to turn his trend line around to justify roughly 20% of core payroll.  2025 will be an important season for him IMO.
    • Thx for laying this out. I would also add that if think about budget in terms over multiple years (any +/- carried over), there definitely is ample room or excess in 2026 as it currently stands with nearly $70M likely dropping off (estimates per roster resource) $18M Eflin $8.5M Sanchez $8M Seranthony $8M OHearn $5.6M Soto $8.7M Mullins $3.2M Mateo $2.5M no buyouts of Kimbrel + Jimenez  $5.7M Mounty (likely to be moved by 2026) $3.2M Urias (likely to be moved by 2026) A lot of those $$$ could be backfilled with pre-arb internal guys, leaving ample room to supplement and/or carry over to more than offset future years climbing arb increases.
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