Top 7 Orioles MILB "starting" pitchers by -DRA

[Luke-OH]

So most of us are familar with FIP and xFIP, but fewer are familar with the DRA metric.  It's Baseball Prospectus's proprietary pitching metric.

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/

This is how Baseball Prospectus describes it.

Deserved Run Average (DRA) uses a collection of mixed models to tease out the most likely contributions of pitchers to the run-scoring that occurs around them. Unlike other component metrics, DRA considers (and adjusts) home runs and balls in play, and achieves significant improved reliability over the raw versions of those and other statistics.

DRA has equal descriptive power to Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and offers much improved reliability and run prediction. DRA is park, platoon, framing, and opponent-adjusted, and is scaled to follow the distribution of RA9. From 2008-onward, it includes specific characteristics of the subject pitch, as tracked by PitchInfo. It also includes the pitcher’s command runs (from CSAA), basestealing runs (SRAA and TRAA), and errant runs (EPAA).

-DRA takes that metric and makes it comparitive to league-wide DRA.  So 100 would be average and it just tells you how much one's DRA is above or below the league average DRA.  So a 50 -DRA would mean that pitcher's DRA is half of the league average.

 

I thought it'd be interesting to see which of the O's minor league possible starters had the best 2017 by -DRA. I defined possible starters by pitchers who averaged 3+ innings per outing (I only included domestic affiliates).

1. Zac Lowther  17.0

2. Nick Vespi   22.0

3. Brenan Hanifee  47.5

4. Alex Wells  54.3

5. Cameron Bishop  64.8

6. Lucas Long  65.9

7. Lucas Humpal  68.7

A few notes:

This is the first time I really looked at DRA, but I thought it was interesting on how highly Vespi was rated.  I really like Vespi as I've written before, he doesn't have a long history of being able to throw strikes but he has legit stuff.  The other really surprising guy on the list is Lucas Humpal, who to be honest I never took a good look at this year (due to his age and level), but may be worth a look in 2018.

John Calvagno (Notes From the Sally) - A guy who does a great deal of scouting the Sally league and produces some excellent write-ups, I'd highly recommend it (although he doesn't get a ton of looks at Delmarva, he didn't get any late season looks at Wells or McKenna and I don't think he saw Peluffo or Dietz at all).  Well he was a fan of Humpal and wrote this scouting report.

Scouting Lucas Humpal

 

Edit: Also for comparison during Keegan Akin's strong debut in Aberdeen in 2016, his -DRA was 92.6.  So Lowther, Vespi, Hanifee, and Bishop were hugely better in Aberdeen in 2017 by this metric than Akin was in 2016. (Baumann was also better with a 77.6 -DRA.  It's going to be a fan bunch of starters to watch in 2018.

[Can_of_corn]

Love how they can adjust for minor league framing.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Love how they can adjust for minor league framing.

Yeah not sure how that works, I’m guessing they don’t adjust for as much with the milb numbers as they do with the MLB numbers.

[hoosiers]

I saw Vespi pitch in Staten Island on 8/2 after Bauman pitched five innings.  He generated a lot of swing and miss as a lefty.  My recollection, and I am no scout, is that there was some deception to his delivery as he throws across his body somewhat.  

Vespi made a big jump in 2017 from 2016 maintaining quality stats moving from the GCL to the NYP.  He pitched nearly the same amount of innings each year - 52 in 2016 and 49 in 2017.  His BBs increased from 11 to 17 and his Ks nearly tripled from about 41 to 69.  The HRs allowed increased from two to five.  One of those HRs was a no-doubter at the SI game I watched.

Vespi is 6'3", 215 and will play 2018 as a 22 year old likely in Delmarva.  It will be interesting to see if the Os move Vespi into the rotation next year.  I don't know much about him - whether there is more velo there or the ability to improve secondary pitches - so that his ceiling might be an impressive one.  I tend to think that a good pitcher, esp LHP, at a lower level like the NYP can have exaggerated results (kind of what the Ks are doing to the DRA numbers) that will be reduced against better hitters.  I am sure Vespi has had more success than most 18th round draft picks so kudos to the scouts here.  I think we will know a lot more about Vespi after next season.

Separately, Tobias Myers had a DRA- near 40 I believe - pitching to a DRA 38 with the Ironbirds and a 42 with the TB team as a 19 year old.  

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

I saw Vespi pitch in Staten Island on 8/2 after Bauman pitched five innings.  He generated a lot of swing and miss as a lefty.  My recollection, and I am no scout, is that there was some deception to his delivery as he throws across his body somewhat.  

Vespi made a big jump in 2017 from 2016 maintaining quality stats moving from the GCL to the NYP.  He pitched nearly the same amount of innings each year - 52 in 2016 and 49 in 2017.  His BBs increased from 11 to 17 and his Ks nearly tripled from about 41 to 69.  The HRs allowed increased from two to five.  One of those HRs was a no-doubter at the SI game I watched.

Vespi is 6'3", 215 and will play 2018 as a 22 year old likely in Delmarva.  It will be interesting to see if the Os move Vespi into the rotation next year.  I don't know much about him - whether there is more velo there or the ability to improve secondary pitches - so that his ceiling might be an impressive one.  I tend to think that a good pitcher, esp LHP, at a lower level like the NYP can have exaggerated results (kind of what the Ks are doing to the DRA numbers) that will be reduced against better hitters.  I am sure Vespi has had more success than most 18th round draft picks so kudos to the scouts here.  I think we will know a lot more about Vespi after next season.

Separately, Tobias Myers had a DRA- near 40 I believe - pitching to a DRA 38 with the Ironbirds and a 42 with the TB team as a 19 year old.  

I saw Vespi very early in the season and I kind of wrote him off. He had good stuff, but he wasn't repeating his delivery, and honestly it didn't look like a delivery that was likely to be repeatable.  It wasn't until I saw the swinging strike numbers (3rd best in all the minors outside of rookie leagues) and his walk rate that I decided to go back and watch some of his other outings.  He  throws a lot of strikes for a guy with that funky of delivery.  It's really similar to Kershaw's delivery actually where he turns his back and then comes to almost a stop before driving towards the plate.  

More velocity would be nice, but he throws in the low 90's which is enough for a lefty, he has a slider that I'd at least put a 55 future grade on if not 60.  He has a fringy change-up the I see as an average pitch as he develops.  His curveball is pretty bad, it doesn't have the armspeed of his other pitches and it's a cement mixed with a nice easy break.  I saw 2 of the home runs he gave up on it.  

His slider is a legit good pitch and he uses it on LHB and RHB and it generates either GBs or Whiffs.

I agree that A- ball competition is weak, and next year will be a test for all the Aberdeen guys, but I think Vespi needs to be talked about when you talk about Cameron Bishop, because I've seen them both and I prefer Vespi's stuff (Bishop has a starter's delivery and better command, and is higher rated on my list currently because of that).

Myers was really good, and I liked him a lot, had him on my mid-season list before anyone was talking about him, but I still think it was a coup to get Tim Beckham for him.  He had such good results due to being extremely polished for a young pitcher. He has a more developed repertoire than Baumann who was a high round college draftee.  I just think there isn't much more there unless he becomes a super change-up or super command guy.   He's a good prospect, a 45 FV with a chance to jump if his stuff holds up in full season ball.  He'd slot around 12-15 on the Orioles list.