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C Martin Cervenka selected in AAA portion of rule 5


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Just now, wildcard said:

Gilmartin has a 2.88 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.  He out pitched almost everyone on the roster.   He is a lefty.  He was a #1  draft choice and the O's think they found something with him. They will protect him.

He throws junk and has a .216 BABIP and a 91% Left on Base, neither are remotely sustainable even for an excellent pitcher. It's 25 innings, if you project him forward with even his minor league LOB and BABIP numbers, he's a 5 ERA guy. 

ERA is not a good judge of talent in small samples.

Gilmartin has faced 103 batters, the only statistic that begins to stabilize at that few batters faced is K rate. Gilmartin's K rate is 4.68/K or 12.6%, both poor.

 

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6 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

He throws junk and has a .216 BABIP and a 91% Left on Base, neither are remotely sustainable even for an excellent pitcher. It's 25 innings, if you project him forward with even his minor league LOB and BABIP numbers, he's a 5 ERA guy. 

ERA is not a good judge of talent in small samples.

Gilmartin has faced 103 batters, the only statistic that begins to stabilize at that few batters faced is K rate. Gilmartin's K rate is 4.68/K or 12.6%, both poor.

 

That may be a good point to a Sabr guy.  But will the guy that sets the 40 man roster for the Rule 5 draft be a Sabr guy?  Or will it be Dan who  thinks he found a gem?

I think there is room for him on the 40 man.   I would take off Beckham, Joseph,  Hart and Wright and only take one Rule 5 guy. Joseph may be resigned later.

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That may be a good point to a Sabr guy.  But will the guy that sets the 40 man roster for the Rule 5 draft be a Sabr guy?  Or will it be Dan who  thinks he found a gem?

I think there is room for him on the 40 man.   I would take off Beckham, Joseph,  Hart and Wright and only take one Rule 5 guy. Joseph may be resigned later.

The vast majority of MLB are "Sabr guys", it's not just a data thing either, it's a scouting thing too. Ask a scout what they think about Gilmartin at this point. I think the eye can easily mistake good results for true talent, especially in a season like this where good results are so few and far between. 

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2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

The vast majority of MLB are "Sabr guys", it's not just a data thing either, it's a scouting thing too. Ask a scout what they think about Gilmartin at this point. I think the eye can easily mistake good results for true talent, especially in a season like this where good results are so few and far between. 

Here is what Tony had to say about Gilmartin:

23 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

This guy is the perfect example of a pitch ability lefty. He moves the ball in and out, changes speeds, brushes guys back, and gets guys out with below average raw stuff.

My initial take on him wasn't totally wrong when it came to the stuff, but I didn't take into consideration how good of a pitcher he is with that stuff.

He's been a real find out of the pen and if he can maintain the kind of command he's shown, I might try and stretch him out and see what if he can start next year. Worse case he should be fine in his current role. Either way he's pitched himself into a job next year barring an implosion next spring.

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3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I guess you are talking about Wright.  I don't want to keep him but does Brady?

I know Brady made some favorable remarks about Wright in that Ken Rosenthal piece about Brady, but that was nearly two years ago.   In the interim, Wright has posted ERA’s of 5.76 and 5.53.   He’s had opportunity and made very little of it.

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Just now, Frobby said:

I know Brady made some favorable remarks about Wright in that Ken Rosenthal piece about Brady, but that was nearly two years ago.   In the interim, Wright has posted ERA’s of 5.76 and 5.53.   He’s had opportunity and made very little of it.

I agree.  But why did he make it through the whole season?   He trains with Brady and I would guess that Brady has been in his corner.  Will that continue?  We should know soon.

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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I know Brady made some favorable remarks about Wright in that Ken Rosenthal piece about Brady, but that was nearly two years ago.   In the interim, Wright has posted ERA’s of 5.76 and 5.53.   He’s had opportunity and made very little of it.

Brady is a lot like Buck and is always talking good about people.

Heck, he had great things to say about Kim and his conditioning and how did that work out?

 

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4 hours ago, wildcard said:

So who out of this group would you not protect?

Staters - (11) Bundy, Cashner, Cobb, Harvey, Hess, Means, Oritiz,  Ramirez, Rogers,  Yacabonis, Tate.

Relievers -  (15)  Araujo, Bleier, Carroll,  Castro, Fry. Givens, Gilmartin, Hart, Meisinger, Phillips,  Scott, Wright,  Flaa, Kline, Luis Gonzalez

Catcher (4)  Cervenka, Joesph, Sisco, Wynns

Infielders ( 6)    Beckham,  Davis, Nunez,  Valera, Villar, Wilkerson

Outfielder ( 6) Hays, Mancini, Mullins, Rickard, Stewart, Santander

DH (1) Trumbo

Rule 5 Draft (2)

Total (45)

 

Easy to find 5 there to get rid of, especially if they do the right thing and release Davis.  Beckham, Joseph, Hart and Wright are easy dumps.  Maybe they can move Givens or even Trumbo.  Is Rickard still a thing?

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6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

He throws junk and has a .216 BABIP and a 91% Left on Base, neither are remotely sustainable even for an excellent pitcher. It's 25 innings, if you project him forward with even his minor league LOB and BABIP numbers, he's a 5 ERA guy. 

ERA is not a good judge of talent in small samples.

Gilmartin has faced 103 batters, the only statistic that begins to stabilize at that few batters faced is K rate. Gilmartin's K rate is 4.68/K or 12.6%, both poor.

 

When Gilmartin first came up, I'm pretty sure my first reaction was, "This guy doesn't have major league stuff." After watching a lot of him now, I still think his stuff is below average across the board, but what I do see is a guy that knows how to pitch. Am i excited over him? No, not really, but if there is one thing I've learned from Richard Bleier is that if you can pitch, even with below average stuff, you can have some success in the right role.

Would I protect him? Sure, mostly because there's no reason not to keep a cheap, controllable guy who can be stretched out and give you innings. He's mainly pitched in mop up time and usually batters aren't as motivated during those times, but saying that, I've seen him slow down a red-hot offense several times now.

Remember, this is a guy who's had some success as reliever in the major leagues before. He basically throws everything including the kitchen sink at guys and keeps guys off balance, despite the fact that he doesn't have a plus pitch, or maybe even a solid average pitch (maybe his slider and change which both get decent WHIF). 

I realize his numbers scream out for regression, and I'm not saying he may be a high two ERA guy, but what I am saying is I believe he's earned his chance to be on the 40-man this offseason and will get every opportunity to be part of the pitching staff next year. 

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7 hours ago, wildcard said:

So who out of this group would you not protect?

Staters - (11) Bundy, Cashner, Cobb, Harvey, Hess, Means, Ortiz,  Ramirez, Rogers,  Yacabonis, Tate.

Relievers -  (15)  Araujo, Bleier, Carroll,  Castro, Fry. Givens, Gilmartin, Hart, Meisinger, Phillips,  Scott, Wright,  Flaa, Kline, Luis Gonzalez

Catcher (4)  Cervenka, Joesph, Sisco, Wynns

Infielders ( 6)    Beckham (non-tender)Davis (DFA/release), Nunez,  Valera, Villar, Wilkerson

Outfielder ( 6) Hays, Mancini, Mullins, Rickard, Stewart, Santander

DH (1) Trumbo

Rule 5 Draft (2)

Total (45)

 

I bolded the guys I would not protect. That's seven guys and I would also try and trade Cobb and Cashner and of course try to give Trumbo away but I doubt there are takers on Trumbo.

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6 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

So you would keep Caleb? Also, thoughts on Flaa? I thought he was regarded pretty decently.

He had a good year as a 26-year old in AA pitching in middle relief. I didn't see him pitch this year, but he always had middling stuff. Unless there is some jump in stuff i'm not privy too, I'm not sure why people think he's a guy. 

As for Caleb, he's not going to be expensive and he still is able to better a pitching staff. I mean the world's not going to end if the Orioles go in a different direction, but no one is ready to take his place.

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4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I bolded the guys I would not protect. That's seven guys and I would also try and trade Cobb and Cashner and of course try to give Trumbo away but I doubt there are takers on Trumbo.

I serious doubt that Cobb, Cashner  or Trumbo will be traded prior to the Rule 5 draft.  So  all three will be protected on the 40 man roster.   Davis is not getting released.  I am surprised you think he would be.  I know you said these are guys you would release and not that the O's would release them, but let's be realistic.

Beckham and Hart I agree with.

Araujo, Phillips and Meisinger are all players that have had minor league success and are very likely to be protected by the O's on the 40 man roster.    In the rebuild the O's will be looking to give chances next year to these kind of minor league players IMO.  In spite of what the Red Sox did to Meisinger today.

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