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Worst Free Agent Contact of 2015 Davis or Heyward

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By NATTYBO's
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We all lament the Davis contract but I remember having intense discussions with members of this board who loved Heywards.  2 years later both the contracts look horrible.  Over the last 2 years Davis has a 2.9War and Heyward has a 3.9.  Davis gets hit on his defensive WAR while my eyes see differently.    I still say that the Heyward contract is worse.

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Not to say that the Heyward contract is better or worse, but it was apparent during the World Series that Heyward's leadership was invaluable to the Cubs. I've never heard Chris Davis being cited as a leader.

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4 minutes ago, NATTYBO's said:

We all lament the Davis contract but I remember having intense discussions with members of this board who loved Heywards.  2 years later both the contracts look horrible.  Over the last 2 years Davis has a 2.9War and Heyward has a 3.9.  Davis gets hit on his defensive WAR while my eyes see differently.    I still say that the Heyward contract is worse.

Would you trade Davis for Heyward, straight up, right now?

I certainly would.

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would you trade Davis for Heyward, straight up, right now?

I certainly would.

Davis is coming off his worst season in the last 6 years, hopefully he can't regress.  Given that Heyward is living of off dWAR and potential I wouldn't.  

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7 minutes ago, NATTYBO's said:

Davis is coming off his worst season in the last 6 years, hopefully he can't regress.  Given that Heyward is living of off dWAR and potential I wouldn't.  

They were practically equally valuable at the plate in 2017 and Heyward is almost 3.5 years younger.  Neither is a contract that you'd want, but Heyward is more likely to produce value over the course of his contract than Davis.

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1 minute ago, phillyOs119 said:

They were practically equally valuable at the plate in 2017 and Heyward is almost 3.5 years younger.  Neither is a contract that you'd want, but Heyward is more likely to produce value over the course of his contract than Davis.

People have been touting his potential for offensive improvement for years and he has only regressed.  The Davis Contract is one year less, I'll take that

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2 minutes ago, NATTYBO's said:

People have been touting his potential for offensive improvement for years and he has only regressed.  The Davis Contract is one year less, I'll take that

I wasn't touting his potential, just what both players were in 2017 and that Davis who is already showing serious signs of aging (loss of bat speed + big time loss of footspeed) is older.

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1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

They were practically equally valuable at the plate in 2017 and Heyward is almost 3.5 years younger.  Neither is a contract that you'd want, but Heyward is more likely to produce value over the course of his contract than Davis.

The age discrepancy is a huge factor.    Also, I’m just really worried about what I’ve seen from Davis the last two years concerning taking called third strikes.    He’s not going to rebound if that problem doesn’t go away.    Both contacts may be losers, but the odds of Heyward giving the Cubs a few good years are much better than the odds we’ll get decent production from Davis, IMO.    I’m certainly hoping to be proven wrong.    

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Just now, Frobby said:

The age discrepancy is a huge factor.    Also, I’m just really worried about what I’ve seen from Davis the last two years concerning taking called third strikes.    He’s not going to rebound if that problem doesn’t go away.    Both contacts may be losers, but the odds of Heyward giving the Cubs a few good years are much better than the odds we’ll get decent production from Davis, IMO.    I’m certainly hoping to be proven wrong.    

Yeah, Davis has shown signs of aging too, just look at his trouble hitting velocity especially if it is up and in at all.  Look at how much his statcast sprint speed has decreased.  I'd like to hope that those things come back, but I'm not holding my breath.

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5 hours ago, NATTYBO's said:

Davis is coming off his worst season in the last 6 years, hopefully he can't regress.  Given that Heyward is living of off dWAR and potential I wouldn't.  

Davis had a Batting Average of .196 and an OPS of .704 in 2014.  I don't know how he could have had a worse season last year.  Think you are just reading WAR and taking it as a fact.  

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2 minutes ago, cimota said:

Davis had a Batting Average of .196 and an OPS of .704 in 2014.  I don't know how he could have had a worse season last year.  Think you are just reading WAR and taking it as a fact.  

Davis had a OPS of .704 in 2014, the AL average was .706.

Davis had a OPS of .732 in 2017, the AL average was .753.

Context is important.

Also, speed numbers from statcast say that Davis slowed considerably from 2015 to 2017 (2015 was the first year they recorded that data).  Which hurts his value as a baserunner and probably hurts him defensively at least a little bit. 

So even if you don't want to use WAR, the statistics back up 2017 as his worst season when you account for league wide hitting environment (which you need to do to make a legitimate comparison).

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