How I messed up: Assessing my Mid-season Top 30 mistakes

[Luke-OH]

So I'm pretty new to scouting, I've been watching a ton of baseball for years including minor league baseball, but I'm pretty new to writing up scouting reports and prospect lists.  The point is I'm learning and trying really hard to improve.  @Tony-OH has given me plenty of pointers which have been very helpful and I consume baseball like it's my job.  One of my core beliefs when it comes to scouting players is to trust my eyes, I don't get easily dissuaded by other people's opinions on players.  If I like the player I like the player, maybe I'll take another look, but I stick to my guns.  Now a key component to trusting yourself is to from time to time look back and see what you got wrong and why.  Tony reminded me of that in a post this morning.  So I'm going to look back on my top 3 mistakes in my Midseason Top 30 prospects list.  These aren't going to be guys who jumped up due to legitimate changes the prospect made, but more guys that I missed something in my assessment of them.

Here is the link to the list in question:  http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/29313-phillyos-mid-season-top-30-orioles-prospects/&tab=comments#comment-2156912

1. Randolph Gassaway (midseason rank #14) overrated - So this was my biggest mistake by far.  I wrote this note about Gassaway "Has the body to hit for power but the swing isn’t geared for power currently, that holds him back from a higher ranking.  There are things to like though, good contact skills stemming from a simple noise-free approach and a compact swing.  He also has a good idea of the strike zone."  So pretty much I ignored the fact that I saw a swing that wasn't going to be conducive to power production for some reason.  I also didn't watch him in the field enough, his lackluster play in LF puts a ton of pressure on the bat and without a retooling of the swing the bat is not going to be good enough to profile in an OF corner even with solid defense.  

2. Lucas Long (midseason rank #12)  overrated - I still like Lucas Long and think he's a MLB player, but I was a bit overzealous in projecting a guy without a starter's repertoire to be able to start in the bigs due to one plus pitch and above average command in relief outings and the occasional spot start.  The Orioles shifted him to a starting role, and while he was solid, the stuff and command declined under a heavier workload.  The lesson here is to not assume stuff and a limited repertoire will hold up in longer outings and heavier workloads (This is an important point for the people who always want to try various relievers as starting pitchers).

3. Alex Wells (midseason rank #16) underrated - I hadn't seen Wells pitch more than short clips at the time of this list because I hadn't been to Delmarva and very few Delmarva games are on milb.tv.  I made the mistake of taking national prospect analysts misgivings about Wells to heart too much.  If I had of seen him more I'd have seen that his feel for pitching and excellent changeup allows for his lackluster velocity to play.

HM: Ranking Mountcastle over Hays - I discounted the value of the total contributions of Hays to a team.  His defense and speed advantages put much less pressure on Hays's bat.  I still think Mountcastle is the better hitter of the two but I didn't put enough consideration into their overall profiles.

HM: Cody Sedlock (midseason rank #8) - I think this isn't too bad, I saw the decreased stuff, but I failed to notice the change in delivery from college (which I should have, it was obvious once I went looking for it).

HM: Leaving Santander off - Straight up omission on my part, I had him in mind, but just forgot about him because he wasn't playing.

Just a few more notes, I did a few things right.  I had Akin ahead of Sedlock which looks good now.  I had Hanifee and Tobias Myers fairly high before really anyone else in the community were on them.  I was on Stewart's stance change.  I was on Lowther as soon as he was drafted.  I saw Wilkerson as a utility option long before the blogs started touting him, although the love got overblown and exaggerated (my take was just that he might be better than an org guy.)

  

 

[Enjoy Terror]

Nice write up. Really enjoyed this

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Don't fret too much about it. 

Gassaway was a big deal coming off his season at Delmarva in 2016 and he took a step back this season. Is that a sign of things to come, or just a growing pain that many other players have had? 

Long struggled under the heavier workload. So have plenty of others. Not everyone can come in and be a Blier or Castro. They stretched him out as a potential back end starter/long swingman and it didn't go that well.

Wells was pretty under the radar. Got to see him a lot in Aberdeen and was impressed, but people didn't like the fact he wasn't blowing everyone away with an overpowering fastball. For every Jamie Moyer out there, there are thousands of Randy Johnson's with even more control issues who get looked at first, because they can reach e digits on a gun. 

I disagree with you on Hays vs. Mountcastle. Hays didn't have an issue adjusting to AA pitching, while Mountcastle looked like an A+ player facing AA pitching.

Sedlocks nose dive was a surprise to a lot of people. I chalked it up to cold weather to start the season, when control for everyone was a major issue. The delivery was overlooked, but how often do teams change someone's delivery/stance?

It would of been hard to grade him without seeing him.

Good call on the rest. For Wilkerson, the brass did like him and he was in line for a call up before Tejada became available and so did Sardinas. That overshadowed him a bit though he did come to Tampa during that last road trip to get some work in infront of front office personel. 

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Don't fret too much about it. 

Gassaway was a big deal coming off his season at Delmarva in 2016 and he took a step back this season. Is that a sign of things to come, or just a growing pain that many other players have had? 

Long struggled under the heavier workload. So have plenty of others. Not everyone can come in and be a Blier or Castro. They stretched him out as a potential back end starter/long swingman and it didn't go that well.

Wells was pretty under the radar. Got to see him a lot in Aberdeen and was impressed, but people didn't like the fact he wasn't blowing everyone away with an overpowering fastball. For every Jamie Moyer out there, there are thousands of Randy Johnson's with even more control issues who get looked at first, because they can reach e digits on a gun. 

I disagree with you on Hays vs. Mountcastle. Hays didn't have an issue adjusting to AA pitching, while Mountcastle looked like an A+ player facing AA pitching.

Sedlocks nose dive was a surprise to a lot of people. I chalked it up to cold weather to start the season, when control for everyone was a major issue. The delivery was overlooked, but how often do teams change someone's delivery/stance?

It would of been hard to grade him without seeing him.

Good call on the rest. For Wilkerson, the brass did like him and he was in line for a call up before Tejada became available and so did Sardinas. That overshadowed him a bit though he did come to Tampa during that last road trip to get some work in infront of front office personel. 

Thanks, not fretting about it at all, just trying to use it as a learning tool.

[Frobby]

I would worry if you didn’t occasionally change your mind about a player.    Overall, your insights have been excellent.   As to Lucas Long, he may not be a starter, but having a good swingman who can pitch multiple innings and give you a spot start when needed is incredibly underrated.   Hopefully Long can fill that role for us eventually.   

[Luke-OH]

33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That being said.   What makes Mountcastle a better hitter than Hays besides just being bigger, younger, and stronger?     They both seem to be very aggressive hitters who use the whole field.   Hays seems to make a little more contact which makes me take his over aggressiveness with a grain of salt.    I am more concerned with Mountcastles very low walk numbers last year.

Mountcastle isn't currently a better hitter than Hays but he's almost two years younger, has better bat speed, and a better swing plane for power.  Hays has more power currently but Mountcastle will likely have more power as he adds mass/strength to his significantly larger frame.  

Mountcastle doesn't have the same ability to manipulate the bat head as Hays does which is why he struggled against AA pitching, while Hays adapted quickly.  Mountcastle will need to develop his pitch recognition and strike zone judgement, but he's super young and I'd be surprised if he doesn't tear up AA next this upcoming season.

Both players' aggressive approach is a product of the Orioles development plan, they were told to be extremely aggressive in order to learn what they could and couldn't hit.  It'll be interesting to see if Hays's approach adjusts in the future.  

[Luke-OH]

33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Good stuff.  Always respect someone who isn't always tooting his own horn.    You bring a lot to the site and you have some humility.   A good combo.

Thanks, I know I have strong opinions on players and issues.  I don't want people to mistake that for me thinking I'm always right or something.  I'm an amateur trying to improve my eye, in a field where even the best are wrong sometimes.  I like it when people question my assessments or scouting reports because it makes me rethink my logic, take longer looks, and generally improve.  Like any scout or analyst I'm going to be wrong frequently, but I'm going to try and point to things wrong about in addition to the things I'm right about.

[weams]

9 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Good stuff.  Always respect someone who isn't always tooting his own horn.    You bring a lot to the site and you have some humility.   A good combo.

 

 

I agree. 

[George Zuverink]

10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Good stuff.  Always respect someone who isn't always tooting his own horn.    You bring a lot to the site and you have some humility.   A good combo.

 

Amen to that. I always feel like you’ve brought something new and worthwhile to the table when I read your posts, Philly. 

[Jammer7]

Good stuff. You bring a lot to the table here, and it is greatly appreciated.