The 2018 Offense (so far)

[Frobby]

For obvious reasons, we’re all focused on the pitching.   While waiting for that to sort out, what do we think of our offense as it stands now?

2016: 744 runs (7th), .256 BA (9th), .317 OBP (9th), .443 SLG (2nd), .760 OPS (3rd), 253 HR (1st), 19 SB (15th), 1324 K’s (11th*), 468 BB (10th).

2017: 743 runs (8th), .260 BA (4th), .312 OBP (13th), .435 OBP (5th), .747 OPS (9th), 232 HR (5th), 32 SB (15th), 1412 K’s (12th*), 392 BB (14th).

* 11th = 5th highest, 12th = 4th highest.

On the surface, run production barely changed.    We scored one fewer run and finished one spot lower on the list of runs scored by team.    However, on a closer look there are two issues:

1.    Average runs per team was up by 32 runs, so our one run drop is a 33-run drop relative to the rest of the league.

2.   The team OBP, SLG and OPS all dropped by appreciable amounts.   The run total didn’t drop proportionately, due to the fact that the team hit very well in RISP situations, which isn’t likely to be sustained.   

So, my baseline is that our offense was down appreciably in 2017, and was below average on the whole.

So what do we think about 2018?   We’ve lost the following players: 

1.    Wellington Castillo (.813 OPS in 365 PA).    Whatever you think of his defense, and however much you may like Chance Sisco’s offense in the long run, we are probably taking a significant step back at C offensively in 2018.

2.   Seth Smith (.774 OPS in 373 PA).    Highest OBP on the team, so we’re probably losing some OBP at a minimum.

3.   JJ Hardy (.578 OPS in 268 PA). We may miss his steady glove, but the bat won’t be missed.   

4.   Hyun Soo Kim (.593 OPS in 142 PA).    We won’t miss that, either.

I’m not going to write off Gentry, Tejada (who signed a MiL with us) or Flaherty just yet.    

In terms of additions, we possibly have Hays and Sisco, and will have a full year of Beckham, though we have to assume he won’t match his .871 OPS of August/September.   And we’ll see if we pick up someone else.    

As to the returning players, we’d hope for more than we got last year from Davis, Trumbo and Machado (assuming, for now, that he’s not traded).   IMO, we’re hoping we hold serve with Schoop, Joseph, Mancini and Jones.

Overall, I’m not expecting huge improvement in the 2018 offense.   Realistic best case scenario is probably to return to 2016 levels, just barely above average.   Worst case scenario is to slide a little further than where we were last year, and be a bottom-third offense.   

Thoughts?

[Aristotelian]

It doesn't matter if we bring back the same rotation. It also doesn't matter who fills the holes. The core of the offense will be Manny, Schoop, Jones, Davis, Trumbo, and Beckham. We will probably hit a lot of home runs with a lot of strikeouts and poor OBP.

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

I think Caleb Joseph is going to have a career year especially now that he will see lots of playing time. I am hoping that Austin Hays will receive lots of playing time because I feel he can provide alot more offense than Seth Smith did. Beckham will obviously have a better bat than Hardy. I don't think Trumbo and Davis can get any worse than they were in 2017. We should definitely see an improvement from them. Manny's bat was pretty awful the first half of the season. Therefore, I don't think Manny's offense will be missed as much if the Orioles trade him. I don't know about you but I feel the Orioles offense has the potential for a big year this year. Get us some pitching Dan and the Orioles could surprise some folks.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

I think Caleb Joseph is going to have a career year especially now that he will see lots of playing time. I am hoping that Austin Hays will receive lots of playing time because I feel he can provide alot more offense than Seth Smith did. Beckham will obviously have a better bat than Hardy. I don't think Trumbo and Davis can get any worse than they were in 2017. We should definitely see an improvement from them. Manny's bat was pretty awful the first half of the season. Therefore, I don't think Manny's offense will be missed as much if the Orioles trade him. I don't know about you but I feel the Orioles offense has the potential for a big year this year. Get us some pitching Dan and the Orioles could surprise some folks.

Joseph, in his career, including the minors, has never seen "lots" of playing time at Catcher.  He isn't going to this year either.

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

I see no reason why Caleb can't catch at least five games a week. Caleb is a good defensive catcher and he has proven that his bat gets better with regular playing time. The only reason not to have Caleb catch five games a week is if he goes into a long hitting slump. Caleb is the perfect mentor for Sisco. There is no reason for Sisco to catch five games a week if Caleb is doing his job.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

I see no reason why Caleb can't catch at least five games a week. Caleb is a good defensive catcher and he has proven that his bat gets better with regular playing time. The only reason not to have Caleb catch five games a week is if he goes into a long hitting slump. Caleb is the perfect mentor for Sisco. There is no reason for Sisco to catch five games a week if Caleb is doing his job.

He's never done it.

His career high for games played in a season (not including winter ball) is 135, he had 64 games at Catcher that year.  His high for games started at Catcher is 95, set when he was 23.  You are expecting him, at 32, to up his workload?

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

I see no reason why Caleb can't catch at least five games a week. Caleb is a good defensive catcher and he has proven that his bat gets better with regular playing time. The only reason not to have Caleb catch five games a week is if he goes into a long hitting slump. Caleb is the perfect mentor for Sisco. There is no reason for Sisco to catch five games a week if Caleb is doing his job.

BTW, I would love to see the "proof" that his bat improves with regular playing time.  I don't think there is near enough data to conclusively prove that point.

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

I don't see why Caleb can't catch more games than he ever has in his career. Do you really want the Orioles to have a rookie catcher catching most of their games? I sure don't. If Caleb is healthy, he should catch the most games this year. If Caleb was made out of glass, the Orioles would have resigned Wellington. I have to believe that the Orioles have faith in Caleb being their starting catcher this year.

[bobmc]

40 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

It doesn't matter if we bring back the same rotation. It also doesn't matter who fills the holes. The core of the offense will be Manny, Schoop, Jones, Davis, Trumbo, and Beckham. We will probably hit a lot of home runs with a lot of strikeouts and poor OBP.

Is "Manny" short for Mancini?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

I don't see why Caleb can't catch more games than he ever has in his career. Do you really want the Orioles to have a rookie catcher catching most of their games? I sure don't. If Caleb is healthy, he should catch the most games this year. If Caleb was made out of glass, the Orioles would have resigned Wellington. I have to believe that the Orioles have faith in Caleb being their starting catcher this year.

Seriously?

You think it is feasible to have a 32 year old start more than he ever has before in his career?  How many starts are you talking, 120?

And yea, I have no issue at all with having the rookie catcher as the strong side of the platoon.

[tntoriole]

Chance is going to better Trey’s spot in the 2018 ROY voting but will finish second to Austin who will win the AL ROY in 2018.  Trey is going to better ALL of his 2017 numbers and will be the most improved outfielder in the AL.  Tim Beckham will be a force in 2018 if we just encourage and leave him at SS with Bobby Dickerson and Bordick working him. 

Manny, Schoop, Davis will not vary much.  I suspect a bit of a falloff for Adam and a bit of improvement from Trumbo. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Chance is going to better Trey’s spot in the 2018 ROY voting but will finish second to Austin who will win the AL ROY in 2018.  Trey is going to better ALL of his 2017 numbers and will be the most improved outfielder in the AL.  Tim Beckham will be a force in 2018 if we just encourage and leave him at SS with Bobby Dickerson and Bordick working him. 

Manny, Schoop, Davis will not vary much.  I suspect a bit of a falloff for Adam and a bit of improvement from Trumbo. 

 

So on the entire offense you are only expecting one player to decline and that will only be a "bit" of a falloff?  And a one-two finish in ROY voting?

 

 

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

I don't see why Caleb can't catch more games than he ever has in his career. Do you really want the Orioles to have a rookie catcher catching most of their games? I sure don't. If Caleb is healthy, he should catch the most games this year. If Caleb was made out of glass, the Orioles would have resigned Wellington. I have to believe that the Orioles have faith in Caleb being their starting catcher this year.

 

30 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Seriously?

You think it is feasible to have a 32 year old start more than he ever has before in his career?  How many starts are you talking, 120?

And yea, I have no issue at all with having the rookie catcher as the strong side of the platoon.

There’s a middle ground between Caleb catching the most games of his career and Sisco catching the majority of the games — that is, for the two of them to split the job basically 50/50.    I’m hoping that’s what happens.     I expect Caleb to play more at the beginning of the year while Sisco is getting settled in, though.    Assuming he makes the team (which is a good bet IMO).

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

There’s a middle ground between Caleb catching the most games of his career and Sisco catching the majority of the games — that is, for the two of them to split the job basically 50/50.    I’m hoping that’s what happens.     I expect Caleb to play more at the beginning of the year while Sisco is getting settled in, though.    Assuming he makes the team (which is a good bet IMO).

He wants Caleb catching "at least" five games a week.  That's a full time starter workload, and a high one at that.

 

[mdbdotcom]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

There’s a middle ground between Caleb catching the most games of his career and Sisco catching the majority of the games — that is, for the two of them to split the job basically 50/50.    I’m hoping that’s what happens.     I expect Caleb to play more at the beginning of the year while Sisco is getting settled in, though.    Assuming he makes the team (which is a good bet IMO).

I lean a lot more toward playing the kids than I do toward trying to win a wildcard spot, so I'd like to see Sisco do 50% or more of the catching with Joseph as his mentor. I'm also all for using Santander vs. RHP while hes' up for the first 44 games. By then, DJ Stewart might be ready to take his place.

Hoping Trumbo is not on the team.