What’s the most you’d pay Jonathan Schoop on a six-year deal?

[Frobby]

Jonathan Schoop is two years from  free agency, comIng off a 5.1 rWAR season.    He’s projected to make $9.1 mm in arbitration this year.   Assuming he’d be amenable to signing a six-year deal this winter, what’s the most you would pay him?

As discussed in another thread, Robinson Cano is the only 2B ever to earn more than $16 mm in a season.   But, Schoop will hit free agency at a relatively young age, and may still be on the ascent performance-wise.    A six-year deal would cover his age 26-31 seasons, so you wouldn’t be obligated to pay for many years of likely decline.    So what say you?

[foxfield]

6/75 seems like a good starting point.  His sale of future income bet he wouldn't make 50 so this could be a win for everyone.  Since that is not an option...I will go with 80mm.  

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think you have to start at 6/96 to have a realistic chance of signing him and enticing him not to test FA in two years.      That's only an average of 16M per year.    My guess is that it might take 6/120M to actually get him to sign.     I would go that high to get his age 26-31 seasons.     At some point, the Orioles have to hold onto some young player.   Schoop looks to be as good a citizen as you can find and a great teammate.     I usually prefer letting guys walk over giving out huge contracts but I would go as high as 6/120M for Schoop.

You realize, of course, that in 2 of those 6 years he’s not a free agent, and would make less money in arbitration.   When you say 6/$96, that’s really saying he’d be getting something like 4/$70 mm for the four FA seasons.  6/$120 mm is like 4/$94 for the FA seasons.    And, you’re committing that before he’s actually reached free agency, so all the risk of injury Is on the team.     Under those circumstances, these parameters seem very generous to me.    But of course, that’s why I put up the poll.   

[Number5]

Schoop has shown he has a conservative outlook  by purchasing insurance on future earnings.  I figure he'll likely get about $20 million for his 2 arbitration years.  Four more years @$16 million each would be another $64 million, so I'll go with the $85 million option.  I think it is entirely possible he'd sign for that.  Maybe less.

[Finisher]

If I'm Schoop I want mid 20 mill per. I'm sure he's got Machado chirping in his ear telling him he's worth a ton.

 

[dorfmac]

6/120 was what I thought before reading any commentary or responses. After reading, 100 maybe.

[pcbothwel]

I may be in the minority, but I dont see why you overpay someone like this. Everyone always acts like locking up these young players long term deals is always smart.

Just look at the last couple years with players signing these extensions and then falling back to earth.

Odor, Tim Anderson, Soler, Polanco, Piscotty, Starlin Castro, Andrelton Simmons, Matt Moore, etc.

We should look to extend, but I wouldnt be desperate.

[TradeAngelos]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I think you have to start at 6/96 to have a realistic chance of signing him and enticing him not to test FA in two years.      That's only an average of 16M per year.    My guess is that it might take 6/120M to actually get him to sign.     I would go that high to get his age 26-31 seasons.     At some point, the Orioles have to hold onto some young player.   Schoop looks to be as good a citizen as you can find and a great teammate.     I usually prefer letting guys walk over giving out huge contracts but I would go as high as 6/120M for Schoop.

I agree with every single syllable of this post, it is perfectly accurate. 

Now I will sit back and watch everyone say Schoop isn't that good, and make the case for trading him instead. 

[TradeAngelos]

Oh and let's not forget Eric Hosmer, a completely inferior older player, reportedly has not only one but TWO 7 yr deals on the table presumably for 140m plus. 

[Number5]

12 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

Oh and let's not forget Eric Hosmer, a completely inferior older player, reportedly has not only one but TWO 7 yr deals on the table presumably for 140m plus. 

It seems Nightengale may have exaggerated the dollar figures on that, but in any case, Hosmer is a FA.  We are talking about extending a player with 2 arb. years left.  Big difference.

[Tryptamine]

Well Schoop has 2 years left under contract and last year he made 3.475M in ARB1. I'd expect him to get roughly 7M in ARB2 and 11M in ARB3 then ideally you'd buy out 2 years of FA and buy a team option for a 3rd. He'd then be a FA at age 31. On the open market you figure he's worth at least 15M and upwards of 20M, if last year was legit. Then he'll also have to be compensated for being willing to give an optoni year. I figure 7M+11M+15M(x2)+17M for a grand total of 5/65 starting this year would be realistic. Somewhere between 5/65 and 5/75 is a nice deal for both sides.

[TradeAngelos]

2 hours ago, Number5 said:

It seems Nightengale may have exaggerated the dollar figures on that, but in any case, Hosmer is a FA.  We are talking about extending a player with 2 arb. years left.  Big difference.

Forget about the 2 arb years and focus on the FA years. When a 28 yr old inferior, older player with much less upside is getting 20m a year (or more), the idea that Schoop's FA years are worth LESS than him is flat out ludicrous. 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, TradeAngelos said:

Forget about the 2 arb years and focus on the FA years. When a 28 yr old inferior, older player with much less upside is getting 20m a year (or more), the idea that Schoop's FA years are worth LESS than him is flat out ludicrous. 

Putting aside the fact that I think it would be nuts to pay Hosmer that kind of money, I don’t think you are taking risk into account.    Put simply, a player who is signing an extension two years before free agency will get less in his FA years than a player who already at FA, because of the risk the team is taking that the player suffers a catastrophic injury or drastic drop in performance in the intervening two years, that the team could have avoided by just going year-to-year until the player reached FA.    Obviously, the discount can only be so big, or the player will take his chances and wait until FA without an extension.    But the discount is almost always there; otherwise, why would the team take the risk?

[Redskins Rick]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Putting aside the fact that I think it would be nuts to pay Hosmer that kind of money, I don’t think you are taking risk into account.    Put simply, a player who is signing an extension two years before free agency will get less in his FA years than a player who already at FA, because of the risk the team is taking that the player suffers a catastrophic injury or drastic drop in performance in the intervening two years, that the team could have avoided by just going year-to-year until the player reached FA.    Obviously, the discount can only be so big, or the player will take his chances and wait until FA without an extension.    But the discount is almost always there; otherwise, why would the team take the risk?

I think locking up a player at this stage of their career, worked very well for the Indians a while back, but these days, and the amount of money needed, makes it riskier.

[POR]

30 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I think locking up a player at this stage of their career, worked very well for the Indians a while back, but these days, and the amount of money needed, makes it riskier.

And the Orioles do not take risks if they do not have to. 

The White Sox parlayed signing Chris Sale, Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana to favorable contracts early in their career to get Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Eloy Jimenez, Lucas Giollito,  Dyland Cease, Reynoldo Lopez, Luis Alexander Basabe and Dane Dunning.  I would say that worked out very well for them.