Locking up Gausman: Worth the Risk?

[Frobby]

I think it’s safe to say, Kevin Gausman has yet to establish himself as a consistent big league pitcher.    For his career, he’s 34-43, with a 4.18 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 101 ERA+.    To me, he always seems like a guy who should be better than he is.

That said, if I were running the O’s, I’d take a shot at locking him up long term.   If he takes a step forward, his price is going to increase astronomically; in fact, he’ll shoot right out of our price range.   

I’d try something like this:

2018: $5.75 mm

2019: $10 mm

2020: $12.5 mm

2021: $14 mm

2022: $14 mm

2023: $16 mm team option, $2 mm buyout.

That’s 5 yrs, $58.5 guaranteed, possibly becoming 6/$72.5.

Thoughts?

[TradeAngelos]

A year too early. Too inconsistent right now. 

 

[Tx Oriole]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s safe to say, Kevin Gausman has yet to establish himself as a consistent big league pitcher.    For his career, he’s 34-43, with a 4.18 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 101 ERA+.    To me, he always seems like a guy who should be better than he is.

That said, if I were running the O’s, I’d take a shot at locking him up long term.   If he takes a step forward, his price is going to increase astronomically; in fact, he’ll shoot right out of our price range.   

I’d try something like this:

2018: $5.75 mm

2019: $10 mm

2020: $12.5 mm

2021: $14 mm

2022: $14 mm

2023: $16 mm team option, $2 mm buyout.

That’s 5 yrs, $58.5 guaranteed, possibly becoming 6/$72.5.

Thoughts?

I don't think I'd want the O's to do 5 years. Maybe 3 years.  

[backwardsk]

If I'm a starting pitcher, and I have made it through a year of arbitration, there's really little incentive to not go to FA.  When guys like Smily and Pineda get $10M knowing they're not going to pitch for most of the season, I wouldn't be worried about injury.

[tntoriole]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s safe to say, Kevin Gausman has yet to establish himself as a consistent big league pitcher.    For his career, he’s 34-43, with a 4.18 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 101 ERA+.    To me, he always seems like a guy who should be better than he is.

That said, if I were running the O’s, I’d take a shot at locking him up long term.   If he takes a step forward, his price is going to increase astronomically; in fact, he’ll shoot right out of our price range.   

I’d try something like this:

2018: $5.75 mm

2019: $10 mm

2020: $12.5 mm

2021: $14 mm

2022: $14 mm

2023: $16 mm team option, $2 mm buyout.

That’s 5 yrs, $58.5 guaranteed, possibly becoming 6/$72.5.

Thoughts?

I think it might be a year too early from both sides.  Kevin is hoping maybe 2018 turns an Arrieta like corner at which point we lose and he is giving up 3 years of his first free agency contract at the end of which he would be 33.  He might be amenable to a deal that buys out only 2 free agency years rather than 3.

 Orioles still have to see whether he is going to figure it out and he may never do that.   If he has the big turnaround and we then know we cannot llikely afford him, then it becomes the Manny situation again,  He is an Arb 2 this year, so he could be dealt or kept at cost control for both 2019 and 2020.   

[sportsfan8703]

44 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

A year too early. Too inconsistent right now. 

 

People always want it both ways. You can’t wait till guys are 1-2 yrs away from FA to lock them up. See Machado and Schoop. 

We should just realize that Manny is gone. Focus on extending Schoop, Gausman and Bundy. 

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

A year too early. Too inconsistent right now. 

 

I find it interesting that you’d say that, while at the same time criticizing the Orioles for not locking up Schoop before this year.   In your mind, had Schoop been consistent through 2016?

2014: 65 OPS+, 1.5 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR

2015: 111 OPS+, 1.4 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR

2016: 98 OPS+, 2.1 rWAR, 2.1 fWAR

Now here’s Gausman’s last three years:

2015: 97 ERA+, 1.3 rWAR. 1.5 fWAR

2016: 119 ERA+, 4.2 rWAR, 3.0 fWAR

2017: 93 ERA+, 1.9 rWAR, 2.5 fWAR

I see them as very similar situations.   

[Babypowder]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s safe to say, Kevin Gausman has yet to establish himself as a consistent big league pitcher.    For his career, he’s 34-43, with a 4.18 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 101 ERA+.    To me, he always seems like a guy who should be better than he is.

That said, if I were running the O’s, I’d take a shot at locking him up long term.   If he takes a step forward, his price is going to increase astronomically; in fact, he’ll shoot right out of our price range.   

I’d try something like this:

2018: $5.75 mm

2019: $10 mm

2020: $12.5 mm

2021: $14 mm

2022: $14 mm

2023: $16 mm team option, $2 mm buyout.

That’s 5 yrs, $58.5 guaranteed, possibly becoming 6/$72.5.

Thoughts?

At something along the lines of what you laid out....absolutely. I think it's pretty likely he at least remains slightly above average throughout that deal and you won't be paying him to be anything more than that. If he improves as you hope, you're getting a steal.

[weams]

58 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s safe to say, Kevin Gausman has yet to establish himself as a consistent big league pitcher.    For his career, he’s 34-43, with a 4.18 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 101 ERA+.    To me, he always seems like a guy who should be better than he is.

That said, if I were running the O’s, I’d take a shot at locking him up long term.   If he takes a step forward, his price is going to increase astronomically; in fact, he’ll shoot right out of our price range.   

I’d try something like this:

2018: $5.75 mm

2019: $10 mm

2020: $12.5 mm

2021: $14 mm

2022: $14 mm

2023: $16 mm team option, $2 mm buyout.

That’s 5 yrs, $58.5 guaranteed, possibly becoming 6/$72.5.

Thoughts?

Sure. He's a great arm. 

At worst he comes in when Chen soils the bed. 

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I find it interesting that you’d say that, while at the same time criticizing the Orioles for not locking up Schoop before this year.   In your mind, had Schoop been consistent through 2016?

2014: 65 OPS+, 1.5 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR

2015: 111 OPS+, 1.4 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR

2016: 98 OPS+, 2.1 rWAR, 2.1 fWAR

Now here’s Gausman’s last three years:

2015: 97 ERA+, 1.3 rWAR. 1.5 fWAR

2016: 119 ERA+, 4.2 rWAR, 3.0 fWAR

2017: 93 ERA+, 1.9 rWAR, 2.5 fWAR

I see them as very similar situations.   

I do too. 

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I don't think I'd want the O's to do 5 years. Maybe 3 years.  

Gausman’s already under control for 3 years, so no reason to do that.  

[TonySoprano]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s safe to say, Kevin Gausman has yet to establish himself as a consistent big league pitcher.    For his career, he’s 34-43, with a 4.18 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 101 ERA+.    To me, he always seems like a guy who should be better than he is.

That said, if I were running the O’s, I’d take a shot at locking him up long term.   If he takes a step forward, his price is going to increase astronomically; in fact, he’ll shoot right out of our price range.   

I’d try something like this:

2018: $5.75 mm

2019: $10 mm

2020: $12.5 mm

2021: $14 mm

2022: $14 mm

2023: $16 mm team option, $2 mm buyout.

That’s 5 yrs, $58.5 guaranteed, possibly becoming 6/$72.5.

Thoughts?

Remind me, and I may be wrong.  Wasn't there a similar discussion here about Tillman a couple years ago?  Gauz is one of my favorites so I'm not objective when I say lock him up.  As the ManNY business has reminded us, root for the name on the front of the jersey not the back.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Remind me, and I may be wrong.  Wasn't there a similar discussion here about Tillman a couple years ago?  Gauz is one of my favorites so I'm not objective when I say lock him up.  As the ManNY business has reminded us, root for the name on the front of the jersey not the back.

Yes, there was talk of 5/$75 mm for Tillman last winter, IIRC.    That would have been a disaster, and it points up the risks of signing even decent pitchers long term.    Maybe I have orange-colored glasses, but Gausman strikes me as a sturdy guy unlikely to fall prey to injuries, compared to a lot of other guys.    But that risk is always present.  

[Dark Helmet]

1 hour ago, TradeAngelos said:

A year too early. Too inconsistent right now. 

 

And if you wait he becomes out of the Orioles price range. If you don't want to spend on the top FA, they have to take risks like Gausman. At worst, he' s already a solid 3 with flashes of a 1/2. 

That alone is already going for around to what Frobby suggested. If Gausman puts it all together, he's gone.

[Dark Helmet]

1 hour ago, Tx Oriole said:

I don't think I'd want the O's to do 5 years. Maybe 3 years.  

He's already under team control for 3 more years. No point signing him to a 3 year deal.