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By Baseball fandom · Posted
Yayyy they will become the TB Rays. I respect them but how many titles have they won? You know the answer to that. Zero. 41 years is long enough. -
Obviously the main talk on the board right now is about adding free agents, with Burnes being the most discussed. Now, one of the main arguments for signing a big free agent is the team is young, cheap and nobody is making much money yet. This is all true. However, that is set to change and change fairly quickly. I've run some numbers to demonstrate what the payroll will look like in 2027, without any extensions. I don't claim to be an expert on this so if I made a mistake regarding years, or if you think my projection is faulty, by all means say so. But these are the numbers as I've calculated them; I chose middle projections, so the individual projections could be higher or lower. Position Players Rutschman (Arb 3) 17 million Holliday (Arb 1) 5 million Henderson (Arb 2) 13 million Westburg (Arb 2) 8 million Cowswer (Arb 2) 8 million Kjerstad (Arb 1) 5 million O'Neill (FA contracts) 16.5 million Pitchers Bradish (Arb 3) 8 million Rodriguez (Arb 2) 7 million Bautista (Arb 3) 12 million That's 100 million dollars for 10 players. Now, I think you can project some guys to be on that team that won't be in arb yet. That's Basallo, Mayo (though he might be), and Bradfield. On the pitching side, Povich and there are some others, like Cano and McDermmott, for instance, but I didn't project them out b/c pitching is so volatile and I'm not sure they're core pieces. Conclusions: So they have 100 million dollars laid out here. The positional side looks solid still, though they need to be figuring out what they're going to do on the other side of this first group of prospects- Rutschman, Henderson, Westburg, Cowser. They're going to have to trade them, which is a lot of talent going out the door, or extend them, which will increase their salaries significantly, and that's with another wave of guys, Basallo, Mayo and EBJ set to enter arbitration themselves. The pitching side is pretty thin. Now, again, I haven't projected out some guys presently in the org who could reasonably be on that staff, but at best it is probably 2-3 guys in AAA or above. Now, this might bolster people's arguments to sign Burnes; I'm not sure it does but I could see that. It might bolster people's arguments they need to start focusing on pitching in the draft; likewise, I'm not sure it does but I could see that too. People are going to argue about what payroll should look like- 150 vs 200 million. That's par for the course. But what I think this should demonstrate is if they sign a Burnes, or take on Castillo, that's pretty much it. They aren't the Yankees and they don't have room for two of those contracts- not if they want to remain competitive after 2027. And if that contract doesn't work out, they're in serious trouble. They just can't spend their way out of trouble. Now some people seem fine with focusing on 2025-2027, and that's the window. I firmly believe Elias has a longer window than that, and I'm ok with that, but that is something else someone might want to argue. We all acknowledge payroll is going to go up, but I thought we should see what it actually looks like and put a number to it. -
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By Baseball fandom · Posted
I personally wonder if he's scared to make a big move if one or 2 things, if it will cost him a real high end prospect(s) or a big money deal. I mean I understand both things and why it would be very concerning as a GM but in the profession he chose to be in being scared is not good quality to have. Or like he has to feel like he overwhelmingly won a deal. He may have felt that way with the Burnes and Eflin deals possibly. Also I will give him his due for some of Houston's success but I can't help but wonder if he was the final decision maker there if they would have won the multiple series that they did operating like he does. No one knows. -
By Aristotelian · Posted
Wow, we might actually agree! Seriously, thank you for understanding my post and not getting defensive. For sure, we need to improve the team. If we can get a legit TOR guy through a buy-trade, any cost savings would be an additional benefit vs the elite free agent. Yes, that could be used for bullpen or other needs and I would be in favor of that. -
By Bemorewins · Posted
I’m fine with adding Castillo instead of Burnes as long as we are adding elsewhere. We have to get better if we want to win a World Series. This division is going to be a bloodbath alone just to win it next year. We are going to need a stronger rotation and probably a stronger bullpen. -
By Aristotelian · Posted
You aren't understanding what I am saying. What if you could run the same 2025 payroll as with Burnes but without the long term contract? Castillo is making $24M, only $3M less than Fried (who I think we would all have been pretty ecstatic to sign). I am saying smart spending not low spending. No, it's not the NYY model but it's not the Tampa model either, that is how we got Eflin. It is funny, the same people giving Elias heat for being rigid will be happy with one strategy and one player only and consider anything else a failure.
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