Who will be the better hitter in the long run, Hays or Mancini?

[Frobby]

Looking at their minor league records, Trey Mancini and Austin Hays were pretty similar hitters.   They had similar debuts at Aberdeen, .328/.382/449 with 7.0% BB rate, 15.1% K rate for Mancini, .336/.386/.514 with 7.2% BB rate, 20.9% K rate for Hays.

In year two, their development paths diverged, with Mancini splitting his season between Delmarva and Frederick, Hays splitting his time between Frederick and Bowie.   Mancini hit for average but not power at Delmarva (.317/.357/.422), then stumbled a bit in his first tour at Frederick (.251/.295/.396).     Hays dominated at Frederick (.328/.364/.592), then doubled down at Bowie (.330/.367/.594).    Interestingly, at Frederick their BB ratios (4.7 for Mancini, 4.3 for Hays) and K ratios (14.6 and 14.3) were very similar.

Mancini started his next year at Frederick and his numbers this time around (.314/.341/.527, 4.1% BB rate, 16.1%) were much improved, but still not quite as good as Hays’ Frederick numbers one year earlier in his development.    Mancini then got promoted to Bowie, where his BA and OBP were better than Hays’ (albeit a year later in the process), though Hays’ ISO was better and his SLG also was slightly better.   Mancini posted .359/.395/.586 with a 6.2% BB rate (better than Hays) and a 16.4 K rate  (slightly worse than Hays).

Mancini then spent one more year in the minors, starting at Bowie but spending about 85% of the season at Norfolk before making his major league debut.

Putting aside their significant defensive differences, I see them as pretty similar hitters, both in terms of quality and style.    Both are reluctant to take walks but maintain reasonable K rates.    Both have good gap power and hit to all fields, and can turn on a pitch and drive it out that way.    Both can hit for average.    I’d say Mancini is somewhat more patient and recognizes pitches better at this stage, but that may be more a function of experience than capability.

Bottom line, I think both will be capable major league hitters in the long run.     If I had to guess, I’d say Hays will be the better hitter of the two, though I’m not sure if that will be the case in 2018 or even 2019 due to the experience gap between the two (not just at the major league level, but considering the reps each has gotten in the minors).    It is going to be fun watching both of them mature.

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

We Oriole fans have been waiting a long time for the Orioles minor league system to develop good hitters like these guys. The Orioles would be absolutely foolish to trade these guys. I sure hope that they do not do that.

[Can_of_corn]

Bet on youth.

Hays.

[weams]

Mancini is a very nicely refined hitter. He just does not really play a position all that well. 

[weams]

23 minutes ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

We Oriole fans have been waiting a long time for the Orioles minor league system to develop good hitters like these guys. The Orioles would be absolutely foolish to trade these guys. I sure hope that they do not do that.

They sure might. 

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

Do you have inside contacts weams telling you that the Orioles are willing to trade one of these guys? Why do you say that?

[Catch 8]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

Mancini is a very nicely refined hitter. He just does not really play a position all that well. 

This!  Mancini has very short swing.  Very refined -- I like this description.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

I'm going with Mancini for now. He has shown a better approach at making adjustments when needed and seems to have better pitch recognition. Not to say that Hays might not surpass him, but I want to see Hays ability to adjust and become better at pitch recognition. This year could be telling.

Either way though, having both is a GREAT thing.

[theobird]

I will take Mancini. But I will also be thrilled if Hays outhits him. I like them both, and Hays is a complete player because of his defense, ability to run, etc. I think Hays will likely be the more valuable player because of this. But I am just not sure he will outhit Mancini, because I think Mancini just improves his hit game from here.

[backwardsk]

Does Mountcastle outhit both?

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Looking at their minor league records, Trey Mancini and Austin Hays were pretty similar hitters.   They had similar debuts at Aberdeen, .328/.382/449 with 7.0% BB rate, 15.1% K rate for Mancini, .336/.386/.514 with 7.2% BB rate, 20.9% K rate for Hays.

In year two, their development paths diverged, with Mancini splitting his season between Delmarva and Frederick, Hays splitting his time between Frederick and Bowie.   Mancini hit for average but not power at Delmarva (.317/.357/.422), then stumbled a bit in his first tour at Frederick (.251/.295/.396).     Hays dominated at Frederick (.328/.364/.592), then doubled down at Bowie (.330/.367/.594).    Interestingly, at Frederick their BB ratios (4.7 for Mancini, 4.3 for Hays) and K ratios (14.6 and 14.3) were very similar.

Mancini started his next year at Frederick and his numbers this time around (.314/.341/.527, 4.1% BB rate, 16.1%) were much improved, but still not quite as good as Hays’ Frederick numbers one year earlier in his development.    Mancini then got promoted to Bowie, where his BA and OBP were better than Hays’ (albeit a year later in the process), though Hays’ ISO was better and his SLG also was slightly better.   Mancini posted .359/.395/.586 with a 6.2% BB rate (better than Hays) and a 16.4 K rate  (slightly worse than Hays).

Mancini then spent one more year in the minors, starting at Bowie but spending about 85% of the season at Norfolk before making his major league debut.

Putting aside their significant defensive differences, I see them as pretty similar hitters, both in terms of quality and style.    Both are reluctant to take walks but maintain reasonable K rates.    Both have good gap power and hit to all fields, and can turn on a pitch and drive it out that way.    Both can hit for average.    I’d say Mancini is somewhat more patient and recognizes pitches better at this stage, but that may be more a function of experience than capability.

Bottom line, I think both will be capable major league hitters in the long run.     If I had to guess, I’d say Hays will be the better hitter of the two, though I’m not sure if that will be the case in 2018 or even 2019 due to the experience gap between the two (not just at the major league level, but considering the reps each has gotten in the minors).    It is going to be fun watching both of them mature.

I will say Hays.

[Tx Oriole]

15 minutes ago, weams said:

They sure might. 

If they could get pitching in return I'd trade them in a heart beat. 

[Ruzious]

45 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Bet on youth.

Hays.

Yup.  I think it's Hays - though it might not be overnight.   

[NCRaven]

16 minutes ago, theobird said:

I will take Mancini. But I will also be thrilled if Hays outhits him. I like them both, and Hays is a complete player because of his defense, ability to run, etc. I think Hays will likely be the more valuable player because of this. But I am just not sure he will outhit Mancini, because I think Mancini just improves his hit game from here.

I don't disagree that Mancini may improve from here.  But I'd also say that the 21 year old Hays has as much or more room to grow than Mancini and they are already similar hitters.  If I was going to trade one in an effort to bring back a controllable, high ceiling pitcher, it would be the 25 year old Mancini, not Hays.  Hays plays a higher value position (CF/RF) than Mancini (DH/1B/LFish) at a higher level.  He also brings a speed element that Mancini does not have.  Overall, I expect Hays to be the much more valuable player for a longer period of time.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I don't disagree that Mancini may improve from here.  But I'd also say that the 21 year old Hays has as much or more room to grow than Mancini and they are already similar hitters.  If I was going to trade one in an effort to bring back a controllable, high ceiling pitcher, it would be the 25 year old Mancini, not Hays.  Hays plays a higher value position (CF/RF) than Mancini (DH/1B/LFish) at a higher level.  He also brings a speed element that Mancini does not have.  Overall, I expect Hays to be the much more valuable player for a longer period of time.

Oh, I think Hays probably has more trade value, for the reasons you state.    If push came to shove, I’d trade either one for a good young pitcher, but I’d rather trade Mancini.