Jump to content

Baseball Prospectus: Lo Cain

weams

By weams
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37070/rubbing-mud-lorenzo-cain-still-available/

Quote

Whenever the dust settles, however, it looks more and more like Cain will be the bargain buy of the winter. There are many potential explanations for the lack of enthusiasm that has allowed him to sit on the market for this long, but no good ones. Cain is, quietly, a later-blooming, slightly injury-prone Kenny Lofton. He’s as good a bet to be an average-plus player over the next five years as any remaining free agent, including the guys (Eric Hosmer and J.D. Martinez, at least) who seem certain to get way more money and longer deals.

 

 

  • Replies 55
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Lucky_13 Major Leaguer Rising Star

Lucky_13

Posted
Posted

If they could get Cain on a four year deal, I'd be all over it.  It allows them to slide Jones over to right and maybe trade some of their OF depth for a starting pitcher. 

If they trade Manny, Cain would do a solid job of replacing his production.  I would love to see an OF defense of Hays in left, Cain in center, and Jones in right. 

weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
  • Author
Posted
39 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I'd say Cain is Abel to push Jones to RF.

If the price is right, it'd also give the Orioles more OF depth to trade from for SP.

kungfudesertdunes.jpg

weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
  • Author
Posted
49 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

If they could get Cain on a four year deal, I'd be all over it.  It allows them to slide Jones over to right and maybe trade some of their OF depth for a starting pitcher. 

If they trade Manny, Cain would do a solid job of replacing his production.  I would love to see an OF defense of Hays in left, Cain in center, and Jones in right. 

71f719ddc346cd0b78d1ac5bc2560738c320c954

weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
  • Author
Posted
5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Given the choice between signing him and not making the playoffs and not signing him and not making the playoffs I choose not signing him.

 
 

Anytime during his four seasons?

Dark Helmet Hangout Grand Counsel

Dark Helmet

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Tx Oriole said:

And what would be so wrong with that? 

I for one would rather use the money it would take to sign Cain to sign Cobb. Keep Mancini in LF and DH Trumbo ( since we're stuck with him). Nobody wants Trumbo and I want to keep Mancini. 

 

Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Dark Helmet said:

Jones is only 8 months older than Cain. I don't think Cain is anymore the future in CF as Jones is.

Cain had the 16th fastest sprint speed of the 451 players statcast recorded.  Jones was 241st.  Jones has lost speed in the three years statcast has been collecting this data, Cain has actually been getting faster.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • Aristotelian
      Elias unwilling to spend money despite Rubenstein giving him the green light?

      By Aristotelian · Posted

      We got Eflin from the Rays and took on $18M in salary in a similar buy trade to what I am proposing. This has nothing to do with the Rays model. 
    • Baseball fandom
      Elias unwilling to spend money despite Rubenstein giving him the green light?

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      Yayyy they will become the TB Rays. I respect them but how many titles have they won? You know the answer to that. Zero.  41 years is long enough. 
    • Pickles
      Orioles 2027 Payroll Projection

      By Pickles · Posted

      Obviously the main talk on the board right now is about adding free agents, with Burnes being the most discussed.  Now, one of the main arguments for signing a big free agent is the team is young, cheap and nobody is making much money yet.  This is all true.  However, that is set to change and change fairly quickly.  I've run some numbers to demonstrate what the payroll will look like in 2027, without any extensions.  I don't claim to be an expert on this so if I made a mistake regarding years, or if you think my projection is faulty, by all means say so.  But these are the numbers as I've calculated them; I chose middle projections, so the individual projections could be higher or lower. Position Players Rutschman (Arb 3) 17 million Holliday (Arb 1) 5 million Henderson (Arb 2) 13 million Westburg (Arb 2) 8 million Cowswer (Arb 2) 8 million Kjerstad (Arb 1) 5 million O'Neill (FA contracts) 16.5 million Pitchers Bradish  (Arb 3) 8 million Rodriguez (Arb 2) 7 million Bautista (Arb 3) 12 million That's 100 million dollars for 10 players.  Now, I think you can project some guys to be on that team that won't be in arb yet.  That's Basallo, Mayo (though he might be), and  Bradfield.  On the pitching side, Povich and there are some others, like Cano and McDermmott, for instance, but I didn't project them out b/c pitching is so volatile and I'm not sure they're core pieces. Conclusions: So they have 100  million dollars laid out here.  The positional side looks solid still, though they need to be figuring out what they're going to do on the other side of this first group of prospects- Rutschman, Henderson, Westburg, Cowser.  They're going to have to trade them, which is a lot of talent going out the door, or extend them, which will increase their salaries significantly, and that's with another wave of guys, Basallo, Mayo and EBJ set to enter arbitration themselves. The pitching side is pretty thin.  Now, again, I haven't projected out some guys presently in the org who could reasonably be on that staff, but at best it is probably 2-3 guys in AAA or above. Now, this might bolster people's arguments to sign Burnes; I'm not sure it does but I could see that.  It might bolster people's arguments they need to start focusing on pitching in the draft; likewise, I'm not sure it does but I could see that too. People are going to argue about what payroll should look like- 150 vs 200 million.  That's par for the course. But what I think this should demonstrate is if they sign a Burnes, or take on Castillo, that's pretty much it.  They aren't the Yankees and they don't have room for two of those contracts- not if they want to remain competitive after 2027.  And if that contract doesn't work out, they're in serious trouble.  They just can't spend their way out of trouble. Now some people seem fine with focusing on 2025-2027, and that's the window.  I firmly believe Elias has a longer window than that, and I'm ok with that, but that is something else someone might want to argue. We all acknowledge payroll is going to go up, but I thought we should see what it actually looks like and put a number to it.  
    • Baseball fandom
      Free Agency 2024

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      😂
    • Baseball fandom
      Free Agency 2024

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      I personally wonder if he's scared to make a big move if one or 2 things, if it will cost him a real high end prospect(s) or a big money deal. I mean I understand both things and  why it would be very concerning as a GM but in the profession he chose to be in being scared is not good quality to have. Or like he has to feel like he overwhelmingly won a deal. He may have felt that way with the Burnes and Eflin deals possibly. Also I will give him his due for some of Houston's success but I can't help but wonder if he was the final decision maker there if they would have won the multiple series that they did operating like he does. No one knows. 
    • Aristotelian
      Elias unwilling to spend money despite Rubenstein giving him the green light?

      By Aristotelian · Posted

      Wow, we might actually agree! Seriously, thank you for understanding my post and not getting defensive. For sure, we need to improve the team. If we can get a legit TOR guy through a buy-trade, any cost savings would be an additional benefit vs the elite free agent. Yes, that could be used for bullpen or other needs and I would be in favor of that.
    • Bemorewins
      Elias unwilling to spend money despite Rubenstein giving him the green light?

      By Bemorewins · Posted

      I’m fine with adding Castillo instead of Burnes as long as we are adding elsewhere.  We have to get better if we want to win a World Series. This division is going to be a bloodbath alone just to win it next year. We are going to need a stronger rotation and probably a stronger bullpen.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...