Are the O's better than they were at the end of the 2017 season?

[wildcard]

This is really an exerise in looking at addition by subtraction.  

The O's have allowed 10 players to go free agent.   Miley, Jimenez, Tillman, Hellickson. Smith, Castillo, Hardy,  Flaherty. P. Alvarez and Gentry

They have added 5 players from outside the organization  (Cortes, Mesa, Araujo, Kelly and Brugman) and three to the forty man roster from  in side the organization (Harvey. Wynns and Hess)

Starters

Miley  8-15, 5.61 ERA,  32 S,  157.1 IP

Jimenez 6-11, 6.81 ERA, 25 S, 148.2 IP

Tillman  1-7, 7.89 ERA, 19 S, 93 IP

Hellickson 2-6,  6.97 ERA, 10 S,  51.2 IP 

Total  17-39, 6.61 ERA, 86 S, 445.2 IP

These four starters were terrible.   Its hard to think that their replacements would do worse.   But the 86 starts and 445 IP is a lot to replace.  This is what made the O's a last place  team and this is what will keep the O's a last place team if it is not improved.   Are Castro, Cortes and Ynoa  better?   Let's  call in a wash.

Hardy for Beckham at SS

Hardy    73 G, 254 AB, 578 OPS

Beckham  50 G,  216 G,  871 OPS

Much better offense and healthier.   Worse on defense.   

Castillo for Sisco and Wynns at C

Castillo 96 G, 341 AB   813 OPS

Downgrade on offense,   But Castillo's  5.62 CERA is  troubling  compared with  Joseph's 4.23 CERA with the same staff.   Defense and game calling is the  catcher's most important job.  We will have to see how Sisco and Wynns do.

Smith for Hays in RF

Smith 111G. 330 AB, 774 OPS

Certainly a better future potential.  Hays may have a chance to match Smith's offensive output.   Hays should offer more range on defense.

Flaherty for Tejada. Sardinas, Salcedo

Flaherty  23 G, 38 AB 539 OPS

Tejada  20G, 60 AB, 576 OPS

Bad year for Flaherty.   Offense may be a wash.  Defense Flaherty may be more versatile.   Tejada a better SS which is were the most playing time may come from.

 

Pedo Alvarez and Gentry impact minimal.

Bottom line:  O's may be as good as they were at the end of the season but ....The O's were a last place team and will stay there without better starting pitching.

 

 

 

 

 

[Frobby]

I agree with your bottom line.    

[webbrick2010]

Yep, were a last place team will be a last place team in 2018

When does the re-build begin?

Why are we paying 16 million for a last season of Manny Machado?

Why are we paying 10 million for a last season of Brad Brach?

Why are we paying 17 million for a last season of Adam Jones?

Why are we paying for Davis, Trumbo, and O'day... oh yeah no one else in baseball will take their contracts

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Yep, were a last place team will be a last place team in 2018

When does the re-build begin?

Why are we paying 16 million for a last season of Manny Machado?

Why are we paying 10 million for a last season of Brad Brach?

Why are we paying 17 million for a last season of Adam Jones?

Why are we paying for Davis, Trumbo, and O'day... oh yeah no one else in baseball will take their contracts

We are not paying $10 mm for Brach.   He’s signed for $5.2 mm or so.

 

[Tx Oriole]

26 minutes ago, wildcard said:

This is really a exerise in looking a addition by subtraction.  

The O's have allow 10 players to go free agent.   Miley, Jimenez, Tillman, Hellickson. Smith, Castillo, Hardy,  Flaherty. P. Alvarez and Gentry

They have added 5 players from outside the organization  (Cortes, Mesa, Araujo, Kelly and Brugman) and three to forty man roster from  in side the organization (Harvey. Wynns and Hess)

Starters

Miley  8-15, 5.61 ERA,  32 S,  157.1 IP

Jimenez 6-11, 6.81 ERA, 25 S, 148.2 IP

Tillman  1-7, 7.89 ERA, 19 S, 93 IP

Hellickson 2-6,  6.97 ERA, 10 S,  51.2 IP 

Total  17-39, 6.61 ERA, 86 S, 445.2 IP

These four starters were terrible.   Its hard to think that their replacements would do worse.   But the 86 starts and 445 IP is a lot to replace.  This is what made the O's a last place  team and this is what will keep the O's a last place team if it is not improved.   Are Castro, Cortes and Ynoa  better?   Let's  call in a wash.

Hardy for Beckham at SS

Hardy    73 G, 254 AB, 578 OPS

Beckham  50 G,  216 G,  871 OPS

Much better offense and healthier.   Worse on defense.   

Castillo for Sisco and Wynns at C

Castillo 96 G, 341 AB   813 OPS

Downgrade on offense,   But Castillo's  5.62 CERA is  troubling  compared with  Joseph's 4.23 CERA with the same staff.   Defense and game calling is the  catcher's most important job.  We will have to see how Sisco and Wynns do.

Smith for Hays in RF

Smith 111G. 330 AB, 774 OPS

Certainly a better future potential.  Hays may have a chance to match Smith's offensive output.   Hays should offer more range on defense.

Flaherty for Tejada. Sardinas, Salcedo

Flaherty  23 G, 38 AB 539 OPS

Tejada  20G, 60 AB, 576 OPS

Bad year for Flaherty.   Offense may be a wash.  Defense Flaherty may be more versatile.   Tejada a better SS which is were the most playing time may come from.

 

Pedo Alvarez and Gentry impact minimal.

Bottom line:  O's may be as good as they were at the end of the season but ....The O's were a last place team and will stay there without better starting pitching.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes they will. As long as Angelos wont allow DD to sign better pitching. My goodness if better pitchers want a 4 year deal then give it to them.. Sign a Cobb. Better than signing some washed up low tier pitcher. Trash heap pitchers like DD always signs. 

[Tx Oriole]

6 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Yep, were a last place team will be a last place team in 2018

When does the re-build begin?

Why are we paying 16 million for a last season of Manny Machado?

Why are we paying 10 million for a last season of Brad Brach?

Why are we paying 17 million for a last season of Adam Jones?

Why are we paying for Davis, Trumbo, and O'day... oh yeah no one else in baseball will take their contracts

I agree with you on some things. This team is stuck with Davis and Trumbo. When they gave Manny 16 million I thought it was a contract extension. I didn't realize it was just for 2018 season. As for AJ I hope he retires an Oriole. Move him to RF. 

[Yardball85]

46 minutes ago, wildcard said:

This is really a exerise in looking a addition by subtraction.  

The O's have allow 10 players to go free agent.   Miley, Jimenez, Tillman, Hellickson. Smith, Castillo, Hardy,  Flaherty. P. Alvarez and Gentry

They have added 5 players from outside the organization  (Cortes, Mesa, Araujo, Kelly and Brugman) and three to forty man roster from  in side the organization (Harvey. Wynns and Hess)

Starters

Miley  8-15, 5.61 ERA,  32 S,  157.1 IP

Jimenez 6-11, 6.81 ERA, 25 S, 148.2 IP

Tillman  1-7, 7.89 ERA, 19 S, 93 IP

Hellickson 2-6,  6.97 ERA, 10 S,  51.2 IP 

Total  17-39, 6.61 ERA, 86 S, 445.2 IP

These four starters were terrible.   Its hard to think that their replacements would do worse.   But the 86 starts and 445 IP is a lot to replace.  This is what made the O's a last place  team and this is what will keep the O's a last place team if it is not improved.   Are Castro, Cortes and Ynoa  better?   Let's  call in a wash.

Hardy for Beckham at SS

Hardy    73 G, 254 AB, 578 OPS

Beckham  50 G,  216 G,  871 OPS

Much better offense and healthier.   Worse on defense.   

Castillo for Sisco and Wynns at C

Castillo 96 G, 341 AB   813 OPS

Downgrade on offense,   But Castillo's  5.62 CERA is  troubling  compared with  Joseph's 4.23 CERA with the same staff.   Defense and game calling is the  catcher's most important job.  We will have to see how Sisco and Wynns do.

Smith for Hays in RF

Smith 111G. 330 AB, 774 OPS

Certainly a better future potential.  Hays may have a chance to match Smith's offensive output.   Hays should offer more range on defense.

Flaherty for Tejada. Sardinas, Salcedo

Flaherty  23 G, 38 AB 539 OPS

Tejada  20G, 60 AB, 576 OPS

Bad year for Flaherty.   Offense may be a wash.  Defense Flaherty may be more versatile.   Tejada a better SS which is were the most playing time may come from.

 

Pedo Alvarez and Gentry impact minimal.

Bottom line:  O's may be as good as they were at the end of the season but ....The O's were a last place team and will stay there without better starting pitching.

 

 

 

 

 

I agree that we are about the same for the most part - Beckham putting up an .871 OPS again may be a stretch, but he's better than Hardy at this point in his career.

Of course, as you conclude, the Orioles are still a last place team.  

[Spy Fox]

Seems like we some form of the addition by subtraction argument every year. As alluded to in the OP, this only works if the players subtracted are replaced by people who are actually better, or at least less bad.

So far, we haven't set that up for this year.

[mdbdotcom]

Are they better than they were from 1998-2011?

[MDtransplant757]

5 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Are they better than they were from 1998-2011?

Yes. 

[NCRaven]

I'd like to revisit this on opening day.  This has been a slow moving off season all around baseball.  When we know who the #3-5 starting pitchers are, we will be better able to answer the question.  Also, if we trade Machado we'll likely be a worse team in 2018, but could be a better team in 2019 and later, depending on who comes back in that trade.

[backwardsk]

The starting pitching facts are illuminating.  Then consider Gausman's first half starts (19) had 5.85 ERA.  So that, by my math, represents a 6.49 ERA by starters for 105 starts.  How hard would it be for Castro/Ynoa/Wright/Cortes/Asher/Lee to shave a half run in 95-100 starts?  How would that translate to wins and losses?

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Are they better than they were from 1998-2011?

 

1 minute ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Yes. 

I don’t know yet, and it depends what year you’re talking about.    In that stretch, we won as few as 63 and as many as 79 games.    We’ll certainly be as bad as some of those teams if we don’t shore up the pitching.   

[MDtransplant757]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I don’t know yet, and it depends what year you’re talking about.    In that stretch, we won as few as 63 and as many as 79 games.    We’ll certainly be as bad as some of those teams if we don’t shore up the pitching.   

Unlike the dark days, we actually have pitching coming along the way. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

The starting pitching facts are illuminating.  Then consider Gausman's first half starts (19) had 5.85 ERA.  So that, by my math, represents a 6.49 ERA by starters for 105 starts.  How hard would it be for Castro/Ynoa/Wright/Cortes/Asher/Lee to shave a half run in 95-100 starts?  How would that translate to wins and losses?

Very rough rule of thumb: 10 fewer runs allowed = 1 wIn.    So, half a run for each of 100 starts = 50 runs = 5 more wins.   Of course, if you consider that the starters are only averaging 5+ innings per start, then half a run of ERA for those starters is only maybe 30 runs = 3 wins.