Orioles SOM (State of mind)

[pocketRIPKENS]

Say I was a NON orioles baseball fan looking in on it's organization through a non-bias lens without any previous knowledge of ownerships past discretions, blunders, provocations etc. How would one NOT think the organization plans to compete one last year in AL East with expiring contracts looming? If this was a rebuild, we would have sold both Britton and Machado last year with value exceedingly more than just a rental AND in turn, earned back someones prized farm pieces. We did NOT do that. Therefore, we MUST be in a last hoorah moment (of sorts). We have small pieces that are young and under our control, we have small pieces that are entering their prime and close to contract time (within 2 years) and we have expiring contracts on some of our prime players after this year. If again, I was someone who didn't know the Orioles past, I would say they are two good pitchers away from a serious contender in the East. They have a strong bullpen, a good enough fielding infield, and a legit #3-#5 pitching rotation. We have weaknesses at the catching position and are desperate for a starting pitcher, really two- a legit #1 and #2, or two #2's. Gausman and Bundy as a #3 and #4 in your rotation is more than sufficient. If we tried to address the catching position, I'm not sure how much you really can improve it without a mortgage. I think you ride out Caleb and hope Sisco can become your guy. I believe he will be there as a hitter, but how comfortable our pitchers will be with him behind the dish, is still to be seen.

 

Now, as an Orioles fan, if you signed a Cobb and Vargas, how significantly does the outlook of this team change? Lets first look at what we need to improve on, here are the totals of the pitchers we want to replace, 17-39, 6.61 ERA, 86 S, 445.2 IP. Ugh. Very easy to improve upon, but if you more than compensate these numbers with consistent options I would think we would have enough to contend for a wildcard spot at very least. And, given the current status of our mixed vet and younger players team, getting two veteran starters, is by no means, counter intuitive to a minor rebuild in 2019. Before the pitchforks, I know it isn't as easy as going out and just getting these guys but if we say things like "too expensive" we lay ourselves out there for major criticism. Andrew Miller was "too expensive" to pay non closer money to, instead we gave it to O'day. Bad deal. Miller has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last 3 years. We didn't want to "overpay" Nelson Cruz, instead we signed the worst deal in Orioles history in Chris Davis. We almost never make the right move in these type situations because we play to fill the stands, instead of field a team. So, I would say the Orioles State of Mind is very much in limbo at the moment in the eyes of the league. Their (ownership) next moves will tell the story of what this franchise actually wants, as Oriole fans we've seen it time and time again, Orioles front office history repeating itself, blunder after blunder. If we let the most valuable piece in franchise history walk into free agency without a significant return, this mismanagement deserves no sheep. I for one, will consider my fandom and weigh it heavily in the balances of being loyal and being duped year after year. It's not as if there are Cal Ripken's or Derek Jeter's in sports anymore, if there are, they're rare. We aren't being loyal to a core group anymore, its 100% a business, and our leader is Mr. Burns. We are all Homers until we decide to force change on them. I've canceled my cable with no intentions (for now) of renewing. I have no access to MASN, it'll be me and Joe Angel should I choose to follow them. I've been a lifelong fan and it pains me to accept this reality. Thanks for listening.

 

[tntoriole]

outstanding!  I agree.  And welcome!  We can just look at 2014 and see what even  a moderate improvement in starting pitching can lead to. But if it is an all in 2018 plan, then trading Machado is not happening.  If they sign two good starters, keep Machado who then has the walk year of walk years and we win the World Series, I will forgive the non trade of Manny.   But short of that...no.  And  as you point out, the much more likely outcome is signing mediocrity, finishing last AND then letting Manny, Zach, Adam just walk.  

[clapdiddy]

Just now, birdwatcher55 said:

Sign Tillman and Hellickson on the cheap and let's call it an offseason

Unlike others here, I wouldn't mind having Tillman back on a very incentive-based contract.   I will not miss Hellickson in the least.

[Yardball85]

9 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Sign Tillman and Hellickson on the cheap and let's call it an offseason

LOL.  And lose 95 games and Machado for a draft pick.   

[pocketRIPKENS]

My point was resigning the likes of Tillman and Hellickson on the cheap would've been fine moves had we moved Manny and Britton last year for farm money bags headed toward a 70% rebuild. We DID NOT therefore these types moves are just more of the same further highlighting the bone headed front office and more importantly, ownership. Why is Manny still on the roster if we aren't banging down the doors of Cobb, Vargas, Arrieta types???? Makes absolutely no sense. Either we were contending one last year, which IMO is wrong move BTW, or we looked towards future and stock piled ourselves with young talent. All of the knowledgable fanbase would have commended and understood this move. Hell, I would have bought season tickets knowing we made the tough call but creatively and instinctively kept this team in contention for next decade or so. Instead, we are half way in on an ALL or nothing play without a future. 

[Yardball85]

13 minutes ago, pocketRIPKENS said:

My point was resigning the likes of Tillman and Hellickson on the cheap would've been fine moves had we moved Manny and Britton last year for farm money bags headed toward a 70% rebuild. We DID NOT therefore these types moves are just more of the same further highlighting the bone headed front office and more importantly, ownership. Why is Manny still on the roster if we aren't banging down the doors of Cobb, Vargas, Arrieta types???? Makes absolutely no sense. Either we were contending one last year, which IMO is wrong move BTW, or we looked towards future and stock piled ourselves with young talent. All of the knowledgable fanbase would have commended and understood this move. Hell, I would have bought season tickets knowing we made the tough call but creatively and instinctively kept this team in contention for next decade or so. Instead, we are half way in on an ALL or nothing play without a future. 

Because the organization has no plan whatsoever.  They are probably as confused and shellshocked as we are.

[Frobby]

54 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

outstanding!  I agree.  And welcome!  We can just look at 2014 and see what even  a moderate improvement in starting pitching can lead to. 

I wouldn’t call the improvement in the starting pitching in 2014 “moderate.”    The starters’ ERA improved from 4.57 to 3.61.    That’s a huge leap.    By contrast, last years’ starters had a 5.70 ERA.  We’d have to make as big a leap as we made in 2014 just to get back to “a bit below average” as opposed to “epicly bad.”

[spiritof66]

11 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Because the organization has no plan whatsoever.  They are probably as confused and shellshocked as we are.

Do you really think Duquette and the others in the FO  -- excluding those named Angelos --  don't understand the lousy position that the Orioles are in, where they are likely to end up in 2018 without a significant upgrade in starting pitching, and how expensive that kind of upgrade will be?

I don't know what options for dealing with this mess are open and what options have been foreclosed by ownership -- though I can guess --  or what strategy (if any) the team has for digging its way out of this hole. But the idea that the professionals in the Oriole front office don't know what they're dealing with is hard for me to accept.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, spiritof66 said:

Do you really think Duquette and the others in the FO  -- excluding those named Angelos --  don't understand the lousy position that the Orioles are in, where they are likely to end up in 2018 without a significant upgrade in starting pitching, and how expensive that kind of upgrade will be?

I don't know what options for dealing with this mess are open and what options have been foreclosed by ownership -- though I can guess --  or what strategy (if any) the team has for digging its way out of this hole. But the idea that the professionals in the Oriole front office don't know what they're dealing with is hard for me to accept.

Agreed.    They’re intelligent people, who spend their entire professional lives dealing with this stuff.    But what their plan is, is anyone’s guess.   

[interloper]

Re: the OP, Gausman has an ERA approaching 5 last year. We do not have a good 1-2 foundation of a rotation. 

[Going Underground]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Agreed.    They’re intelligent people, who spend their entire professional lives dealing with this stuff.    But what their plan is, is anyone’s guess.   

I think it is see Manny before he leaves. . He might get the richest or second richest contract in MLB history.  Sideshow Angelos the barker to get fans in the seats. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

Re: the OP, Gausman has an ERA approaching 5 last year. We do not have a good 1-2 foundation of a rotation. 

Any path to near term success for the Orioles hinges on Gausman being closer to his 2016 self than his 2017 self.   I’d be willing to make a plan that hinges on that assumption, even knowing that if the assumption is wrong, the plan’s going to fail.  

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, Yardball85 said:

LOL.  And lose 95 games and Machado for a draft pick.   

I don't know where this 95 loss thing comes from.

No, I don't think we can contend as currently constituted.

But we lost 87 games last year with historically bad starting pitching.  

No matter who we use to replace 2016 Tillman, Miley, Hellickson, and Jimenez, I don't think they can be worst than those guys.   Vargas, 2017 Tillman, Castro, Ynoa, Cashner, Cortes.  Those guys all could be bad, yes.   But I honestly don't think they can be worst than 2016 Tillman, Miley, Hellickson, and Jimenez.   As bad, maybe.   But not worse.  Because you can't really be worse than those guys were.

So I don't see why anyone is predicting we will drop from 75-87 to 67-95.   Stay at 87 losses?   Sure.   Drop to 95?  Just don't see it happening.

[interloper]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Any path to near term success for the Orioles hinges on Gausman being closer to his 2016 self than his 2017 self.   I’d be willing to make a plan that hinges on that assumption, even knowing that if the assumption is wrong, the plan’s going to fail.  

Sure, I mean that's the only plan they have. There's no other option but to hope. I just think instead of finding 2 good pitchers, they really need to find 3 or 4 to contend.

[Yardball85]

42 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I don't know where this 95 loss thing comes from.

No, I don't think we can contend as currently constituted.

But we lost 87 games last year with historically bad starting pitching.  

No matter who we use to replace 2016 Tillman, Miley, Hellickson, and Jimenez, I don't think they can be worst than those guys.   Vargas, 2017 Tillman, Castro, Ynoa, Cashner, Cortes.  Those guys all could be bad, yes.   But I honestly don't think they can be worst than 2016 Tillman, Miley, Hellickson, and Jimenez.   As bad, maybe.   But not worse.  Because you can't really be worse than those guys were.

So I don't see why anyone is predicting we will drop from 75-87 to 67-95.   Stay at 87 losses?   Sure.   Drop to 95?  Just don't see it happening.

As bad as the rotation was last year, Cortes, Wright, Ynoa may be even worse.  Although I don't know a ton about Cortes, Wright and Ynoa would be crushed in the rotation, and the bullpen will be incredibly taxed again.  

Plus the downgrade from Castillo to Joseph, starting a rookie in RF.

95 might have been a touch of hyperbole, but it's possible.