BP’s Orioles Top 10 Prospects 2018

[Frobby]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/37136/baltimore-orioles-top-10-prospects-2018-ryan-mountcastle-austin-hays-chance-sisco/

Mountcastle

Hays

DJ Hall

Sisco

Mulins

Harvey

Akin

Stewart

Lowther

Scott

I found BP’s write-ups varied quite a lot from OH’s.    For example, Akin  is described as a “command and control” lefty, while there’s no mention whatsoever about Lowther’s plus command of his curveball.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Going out on a limb putting Mountecastle ahead of Hays.

And their Stewart writeup is strange.

[Il BuonO]

Mountcastle ahead of Hays is out there. Is Hall ranked as high in the OH list?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Mountcastle ahead of Hays is out there. Is Hall ranked as high in the OH list?

Hall's ranking is because of his draft status.  He didn't pitch enough for the results to be meaningful but he certainly wasn't overwhelming in his debut.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hall--000dl-

[Luke-OH]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hall's ranking is because of his draft status.  He didn't pitch enough for the results to be meaningful but he certainly wasn't overwhelming in his debut.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hall--000dl-

I'd argue it's more about pre-draft scouting than draft status (at least it should be), I know personally, I don't rank anyone based on their draft position alone (although admittedly that's how it turned out in my rankings for the top guys).  I gave them a FV grade based on what I saw in game or video, and leaned on other peoples scouting reports for guys I didn't get to see game video or live (the Halls in particular, I saw some game video of Sparks and Jacob Brown, but also took other reports into consideration because I only saw ABs, not fielding)

26 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Mountcastle ahead of Hays is out there. Is Hall ranked as high in the OH list?

BP has been very high on Mountcastle.  He was 41st in all of baseball in their mid-season list and 4 of the guys in front of him graduated.  DL Hall is ranked 5th on the OH list, and ranked similarly on my personal list that will be up pretty soon. 

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/37136/baltimore-orioles-top-10-prospects-2018-ryan-mountcastle-austin-hays-chance-sisco/

Mountcastle

Hays

DJ Hall

Sisco

Mulins

Harvey

Akin

Stewart

Lowther

Scott

I found BP’s write-ups varied quite a lot from OH’s.    For example, Akin  is described as a “command and control” lefty, while there’s no mention whatsoever about Lowther’s plus command of his curveball.

I'm not a subscriber, curious as to what they said about Mullins/Harvey. 

People get all mixed up on Akin, that "invisiball" article portrayed him as some sort of no stuff crafty lefty.  That's pretty far from the truth, IMO.  The only scouting report of Akin that I've read that I agree with is this one from Baseball Census (who I highly recommend).  It is higher on him than I am, from that report, it'd be hard to not have him comfortably in the top 100 in baseball, I think they caught him on a really good outing, I've seen him more (in a starter role) and I have him as a 50 FV instead of a 55 FV.  Their characterization of Akin as a pitcher is pretty spot on though, IMO (other than the 55 on his 2 seam FB, which I don't like)

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I'm not a subscriber, curious as to what they said about Mullins/Harvey. 

People get all mixed up on Akin, that "invisiball" article portrayed him as some sort of no stuff crafty lefty.  That's pretty far from the truth, IMO.  The only scouting report of Akin that I've read that I agree with is this one from Baseball Census (who I highly recommend).  It is higher on him than I am, from that report, it'd be hard to not have him comfortably in the top 100 in baseball, I think they caught him on a really good outing, I've seen him more (in a starter role) and I have him as a 50 FV instead of a 55 FV.  Their characterization of Akin as a pitcher is pretty spot on though, IMO (other than the 55 on his 2 seam FB, which I don't like)

Paraphrasing:

Mullins: Fine defender capable of playing all three positions, sweet lefty swing but awful from the right side, probably should give up switch hitting, surprising power but also has small ball skills.   Upside: 55 starting CF who has to avoid tough lefties.   Likely: 45 nifty fourth OF.

Harvey:  three major league quality pitches, including a fastball that runs to mid-90’s with life, a “beautifully shaped” curve that’s one of the most impressive you’ll see from a RH, and a change that projects average and flashes plus.  Basically, their only concern is his health.   “ETA: basically, the next time he’s healthy two months in a row.”

Back to Akin, they have his upside as a 50 4th starter, but his likely as a 45 5th starter.    They see him as a low-risk prospect likely to be in a starting rotation, albeit towards the back end.    Based on this report and the other one from Baseball Census, I’m pretty encouraged about Akin as someone we’ll see in our rotation one day.    

[Luke-OH]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Paraphrasing:

Mullins: Fine defender capable of playing all three positions, sweet lefty swing but awful from the right side, probably should give up switch hitting, surprising power but also has small ball skills.   Upside: 55 starting CF who has to avoid tough lefties.   Likely: 45 nifty fourth OF.

Harvey:  three major league quality pitches, including a fastball that runs to mid-90’s with life, a “beautifully shaped” curve that’s one of the most impressive you’ll see from a RH, and a change that projects average and flashes plus.  Basically, their only concern is his health.   “ETA: basically, the next time he’s healthy two months in a row.”

Back to Akin, they have his upside as a 50 4th starter, but his likely as a 45 5th starter.    They see him as a low-risk prospect likely to be in a starting rotation, albeit towards the back end.    Based on this report and the other one from Baseball Census, I’m pretty encouraged about Akin as someone we’ll see in our rotation one day.    

Their take on Mullins and Harvey is pretty comparable to mine, although I haven't seen Harvey's change since pre-draft video.  I think if you have average on his change and command, you could make a credible argument he's the number one prospect in the system (I think there is too much risk to go that far, but it's a realistic argument).  I love that they say Mullins should probably give up switch hitting, I've said that here before, and I think it definitely doesn't help him to hit RH.

[Thats Baseball]

Bleacher Report article on underrated players.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2754364-each-mlb-teams-most-underhyped-prospect-you-need-to-know-asap

[Ruzious]

I love 2-way prospects, but I can understand putting Mountcastle ahead of Hays because of his age and imposing size.  I'm a Mullins guy - looking forward to seeing him even moreso than Hays in Baltimore.  Don't mean to downplay Hays - who I hope is the 2018 AL ROY.    

[wildcard]

Mullins splits at AA last year probably put in the the majors at some point this year against right-handed pitching.

Vs righties  208 AB, 39 R, 11 HR, 31 RBI,  293/339/524.863.   Didn't hit lefties well.

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mullins splits at AA last year probably put in the the majors at some point this year against right-handed pitching.

Vs righties  208 AB, 39 R, 11 HR, 31 RBI,  293/339/524.863.   Didn't hit lefties well.

The reason is he’s a switch hitter with a superior LHed swing. 

[Tony-OH]

On 1/17/2018 at 6:58 PM, Il BuonO said:

Mountcastle ahead of Hays is out there. Is Hall ranked as high in the OH list?

Based purely off of upside bat potential, Mountcastle certainly could be the #1 prospect. He has the most upside impact bat potential in the system, but his lack of defensive value is why we have Hays over him.

[Frobby]

On 1/27/2018 at 3:31 AM, Tony-OH said:

Based purely off of upside bat potential, Mountcastle certainly could be the #1 prospect. He has the most upside impact bat potential in the system, but his lack of defensive value is why we have Hays over him.

Which I agree with.   Defense is a big part of the game.    A guy who’s likely to be either a very good RF and a competent CF when necessary is way more valuable than a guy who hasn’t yet shown he can play any defensive position at a major league level.