Fangraphs poll: O’s will have the fourth-fewest wins over the next five years

[Frobby]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/here-are-the-complete-five-year-win-forecasts/

It’s kind of a silly idea for a poll, but it’s not too surprising that we’re near the bottom.

 

[Can_of_corn]

Team finished in last the prior season and seemingly refuses to rebuild or reload.  Sounds about right.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

With the current state of the franchise I can't disagree with this.  

[esmd]

Eh, 5 years is a long time.  1-2years?  Okay.  But 5?  Just throwing stuff against the wall, IMO.

[rudyrooster]

Screw Fangraphs!   They might be right, but screw 'em anyway!

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, esmd said:

Eh, 5 years is a long time.  1-2years?  Okay.  But 5?  Just throwing stuff against the wall, IMO.

My train of thought is that the teams currently tanking should be good in four years where a team that is adrift won't be.

[oriole]

Good thing polls don't reflect reality. They're just an accumulation of guesses and opinions. Sure, they might be right but I'd bet prior to 2012 a poll like this might have had similar results.

[24fps]

So much rides on which way they jump this season, especially the next six weeks.  If they don't make a few critical moves like trade Machado, then say hello to nuclear winter.

[NCRaven]

Falls under the "who knows" category for me.  But, given how Fangraphs and others have consistently underrated the O's expected wins over the last 5-6 years, I would not be surprised if this poll would have had the same results (re:  the Orioles) if it had been taken in 2011.  And, it would have been wildly wrong.  The farm has improved and pitching is beginning to get to the higher levels of the system.  So, we could very well see a resurgence in the 2020 timeframe, IMO.

[24fps]

21 minutes ago, esmd said:

Eh, 5 years is a long time.  1-2years?  Okay.  But 5?  Just throwing stuff against the wall, IMO.

Five years seems to be a commonly accepted rule of thumb for how long a rebuild takes.  I have no idea how that number was arrived at.  I agree that five years too long unless it's a full tear-down and that shouldn't happen more than once a generation in my opinion.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Five years seems to be a commonly accepted rule of thumb for how long a rebuild takes.  I have no idea how that number was arrived at.  I agree that five years too long unless it's a full tear-down and that shouldn't happen more than once a generation in my opinion.

Stalin.

[foxfield]

So, according to this scientific mutifacited supper analytical analysis, the Orioles will be the 4th worst team in all of baseball over the next 5 years.  This sophisticated system, suggests that the only teams the Orioles can surpass over this time frame are 

The Florida Marlins

The Detroit Tigers

The Kanas City Royals

I would not like to disparage the fine baseball minds and computers that put this together.  But in spite of the many issues this franchise currently has...if Vegas is giving a line on this poll???

I'd bet the farm.  And take the over.

 

[backwardsk]

46 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Team finished in last the prior season and seemingly refuses to rebuild or reload.  Sounds about right.

You would think a team that finished last would get a top 10 pick.

[foxfield]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Stalin.

 

Five year plans and new deals
Wrapped in golden chains
And I wonder, still I wonder
Who'll stop the rain?

[Moose Milligan]

I'm looking forward to baseball season because...well, baseball and everything that comes with it.  Warmer weather, longer days, etc.

Can't say I'm looking forward to the Orioles this year, though.  Don't get me wrong, I'm still going to watch as much as I can but there's no reason to get excited about them as a team for the foreseeable future.