PECOTA 2018

[weams]

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

 

East	Updated	W	L	RS	RA	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	FRAA
New York Yankees	Hitters: Jan 26 Pitchers: Dec 16	96	66	823	671	.251	.323	.438	.265	15.9
Boston Red Sox	Hitters: Jan 30 Pitchers: Jan 30	87	75	746	685	.262	.325	.411	.258	22.8
Tampa Bay Rays	Hitters: Feb 4 Pitchers: Feb 4	84	78	724	696	.250	.309	.397	.255	18.5
Toronto Blue Jays	Hitters: Feb 5 Pitchers: Feb 4	78	84	767	796	.252	.324	.425	.261	1.6
Baltimore Orioles	Hitters: Feb 6 Pitchers: Jan 30	69	93	744	875	.257	.312	.438	.258	-14.6

[auzzy98]

Seems about right judging by our current lineup and pitching staff. Not looking forward to being the bottom of the scrap heap again

[tntoriole]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

 

East	Updated	W	L	RS	RA	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	FRAA
New York Yankees	Hitters: Jan 26 Pitchers: Dec 16	96	66	823	671	.251	.323	.438	.265	15.9
Boston Red Sox	Hitters: Jan 30 Pitchers: Jan 30	87	75	746	685	.262	.325	.411	.258	22.8
Tampa Bay Rays	Hitters: Feb 4 Pitchers: Feb 4	84	78	724	696	.250	.309	.397	.255	18.5
Toronto Blue Jays	Hitters: Feb 5 Pitchers: Feb 4	78	84	767	796	.252	.324	.425	.261	1.6
Baltimore Orioles	Hitters: Feb 6 Pitchers: Jan 30	69	93	744	875	.257	.312	.438	.258	-14.6

Unfortunately, I agree at this point.  Maybe something changes soon.  But right now, I agree with this prediction.  

[Frobby]

Can’t really argue until the O’s do something about their rotation.   They have the O’s offense right on par with the last two years, and the pitching being terrible.  My guess is that even if the O’s sign three ctedible starters, they’d still be projected at 77-78 wins.

[MikeAD]

How on earth are we going to win 70 games, lol?  Not a chance.

[MikeAD]

Just now, Frobby said:

Can’t really argue until the O’s do something about their rotation.   They have the O’s offense right on par with the last two years, and the pitching being terrible.  My guess is that even if the O’s sign three ctedible starters, they’d still be projected at 77-78 wins.

Yes.  I think its pretty nice to say we will stay at that level of offensive output with a combo of declining players and younger players taking on a larger role.  Regardless going to be a ton of runs scored by the AL East teams.  

[jjdman]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Can’t really argue until the O’s do something about their rotation.   They have the O’s offense right on par with the last two years, and the pitching being terrible.  My guess is that even if the O’s sign three ctedible starters, they’d still be projected at 77-78 wins.

Over 70 and under 78 would be a hell of a middle for a gambler

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

How are the Rays getting to 84 wins?  Can't disagree with the Orioles projection until they add some starting pitching.  

[Frobby]

Last year I got a subscription to BP so I could access PECOTA and look at their premium articles.   I rarely used it after February, so I didn’t renew for this year.   

[esmd]

At this point, it's a pretty good guess.  My only question is why does the headline say 70 but the chart shows 69?

[Can_of_corn]

 

12 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

How are the Rays getting to 84 wins?  Can't disagree with the Orioles projection until they add some starting pitching.  

They get to play the Orioles. 

 

Oh, and they can pitch.

[Bonecrusher52]

 

2017 

2018 

[VaBird1]

A lot of the individual projections also project career worst years.  Not that 70 wins is unrealistic, just saying.

[SteveA]

Well, Pecota has historically been good at establishing a floor for the Orioles.   We pretty much always exceed it, sometimes by a lot, sometimes by a very little.

So now we have a floor.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

Well, Pecota has historically been good at establishing a floor for the Orioles.   We pretty much always exceed it, sometimes by a lot, sometimes by a very little.

So now we have a floor.

We didn’t exceed it last year.