Bundy: luckiest pitcher in the majors?

[Frobby]

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/who-got-unlucky-starting-pitcher-edition/

[Can_of_corn]

Pretty sure the luckiest pitcher in MLB doesn't pitch for the Orioles.

[Beef Supreme]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Pretty sure the luckiest pitcher in MLB doesn't pitch for the Orioles.

So does that mean Parker Bridwell?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Beef Supreme said:

So does that mean Parker Bridwell?

Parker Bridwell can't lose.

[Beef Supreme]

"The raw stats suggest" that Bundy is the "luckiest pitcher of the year" in 2017, for example his 19 Quality Starts. That this article is about fantasy baseball and they overlook the "raw stats" of one of the most common categories in 5x5 Roto is baffling. Sure, he slumped mid-season, though extra days of rest appeared to get him back in form. I think the writers are going to find they were fooled by the stats they chose as their criteria. If they had watched him pitch, they would have seen how well he commanded his fastball last year in the majority of his starts and realized it wasn't all luck. When he was properly rested, he threw darts...and there is nothing lucky about that. I put no credence in their prediction for fantasy baseball regarding Dylan Bundy nor in their evaluation of his 2017 performance. I believe they are not seeing the forest for the trees.

[LookitsPuck]

Good signs from Dylan Bundy from 2017:

• Health
• Health
• Health

But seriously...health, better command, improved/crisper stuff.

My main problem w/ Bundy right now is the gopher-ball. 

His 2017 numbers are like 2013 Chris Tillman.

• 2017 Bundy: 8.1 SO/9, 2.7 BB/9, 8.1 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.24 ERA, 4.38 FIP
• 2013 Tillman: 7.8 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9, 8.0 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.71 ERA, 4.42 FIP

Pretty crazy how similar those numbers are.

Anyways, the thing that alarms me about Bundy is the dip in velocity. It's marked. I don't know if he's doing it to get his command in order or to go deeper in games, but in 2016 he was sitting (routinely) about 2+ mph faster on everything (fastball, changeup, curve). I know Tillman suffered from the same thing as he went on in his career. 

I hope it's not indicative of an injury. It could just be him stretching himself out for the full season, so I'll be keeper an extra close eye on him in 2018.

[Frobby]

I think Bundy’s top level fastball is a thing of the past, but that his repertoire is good enough for him to be a very good pitcher.    He had a few bad games that inflated his ERA, but gave us a good chance to win over 2/3 of the time.    I just hope he displays a bit more stamina as this season progresses, and minimizes the number of off-games he has.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Bundy’s top level fastball is a thing of the past, but that his repertoire is good enough for him to be a very good pitcher.    He had a few bad games that inflated his ERA, but gave us a good chance to win over 2/3 of the time.    I just hope he displays a bit more stamina as this season progresses, and minimizes the number of off-games he has.

Sometimes it takes these guys 3 seasons under their belt, before they come out throw a strong 32-34 game season.

 

[wildcard]

I prefer to think of the O's as the luckiest team in the majors to have Bundy.

[foxfield]

Bundy's road to the rotation and his buildup has been pretty atypical.  Good or Bad, I believe we see his A game this year.  What that looks like could be anywhere from very solid #3 to HYWFGATORP.

Hell yeah, we finally grew a top of rotation pitcher.

[Moose Milligan]

As the article mentioned, he's got some out pitches.  4 seamer that lefties can't touch, righties struggle against the slider, IIRC.

A guy like Miley or Ubaldo didn't have an out pitch.  

So we'll see how Bundy does, but I agree with Foxfield that he can float anywhere between #3 and #1.  

[Ohfan67]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

As the article mentioned, he's got some out pitches.  4 seamer that lefties can't touch, righties struggle against the slider, IIRC.

A guy like Miley or Ubaldo didn't have an out pitch.  

So we'll see how Bundy does, but I agree with Foxfield that he can float anywhere between #3 and #1.  

Ubaldo didn’t have an out pitch??? He had days when his splitter was very nasty. He sucked with the Orioles, but he had an out pitch. The lack of quality other pitches and location were his primary problems 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

Ubaldo didn’t have an out pitch??? He had days when his splitter was very nasty. He sucked with the Orioles, but he had an out pitch. The lack of quality other pitches and location were his primary problems 

For me, an out pitch is something that'll work day in, day out.  Sure Ubaldo had days where he was great but that was tempered by days where he was terrible.  You are correct that the lack of other pitches and location were issues, too.

But if you want to be the Ubaldo apologist, keep right on going  

[interloper]

When the slider is working, he's dominant and luck isn't a factor. When it's not working, he's relying on his fastball and he's probably mostly lucky. 

That's a pretty garbage analysis, but you know what I mean.