What if Arrieta falls to the O's?

[wildcard]

No I have not heard anything.  But just look at the situation that is forming.

MLBTR calls the changes of the Twins signing Arrieta as "remote".   They prefer Cobb or Lynn.  I think the Brewers are in the same place.  

The Nats are often thought of as the landing spot for Jake but Rizzo says  "“We have great confidence in our in-house options"  Cole and Fredde.   The Nats are probably already over the luxury tax  for 2018.  The payroll is 178m.    Scherzer AAV is 30m. Strasburg is 25m, and Murphy is 16m  that adds about 17m. So for luxury tax purposes they ar at 195m.   Each team adds 14m for benefits to the luxury tax.  That makes them at 209m   The Nats where over the luxury tax in 2017 so this would be their 2nd year.   Each dollar over the 197m luxury tax limit cost the team 30%.   That mean if Jake gets 21m (like Darvish) then the Nats pay 27m for him.  And the Nets would have no room to add during the season.

The Yankees are in a similar situation.   They are at 161m  add 14m for medical they are at 175m  Add Jake a 21m and they are at 196.   The Yankees need to stay under 197m to break the years of going over the luxury tax which is cost them a 50% add for every dollar over the 197m  limit.   Cashman is on record saying he wants room to add  during the season.     The Yankees signing Jake looks unlikely.

The O's will not go 4 years on Cobb or Lynn.  They do  not like  the medicals of Vargas, Cashner and Garcia.   They may on;y offer one year contracts with an option on those three.  They are competing with the Jays, Twins, Phillies and maybe Angels for these three players.    The O's need three starters.

The O's are at about 126m.  Their opening day payroll last year was 164m,   They are 38m under that.  Plus anything they can defer in a contract. 

Jake has had no recent medical problems.   If Darvish set Jake's  rate at 21m and the O's will go 3 years with a vesting option on a 4th year then that may be the best offer that Jake gets.   The other teams that I think might be interested at that level are the Phillies and Rangers.

Dan likes to wait for the bargains late in the offseason.   This year Jake could be the O's Cruz.  Jake's market looks very thin.

Its all speculation at this time but if the market plays out the way it looks like it might, they O's may have a chance at Jake.

   

[maybenxtyr]

It has been speculated that Jake turned down the same offer from the Cubs that Darvish signed. I seriously doubt we will see a reunion with Jake and the Orioles. The Phillies are in a much better situation to sign him if he doesn't sign elsewhere.

[weams]

Not the slightest chance. 

[wildcard]

from Phillies.com

Quote

 it seems more likely that the Phillies would sign an experienced starter to a one- or two-year deal than commit to a lengthy contract. That would seemingly take Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb out of the conversation.

https://www.mlb.com/news/philadelphia-phillies-looking-to-add-starter/c-266234774

[weams]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Not the slightest chance. 

And I mean this most respectfully. Jake is not pitching for the Orioles again. 

[gmelson26]

1 hour ago, weams said:

And I mean this most respectfully. Jake is not pitching for the Orioles again. 

Yeah I have to be honest, given the history of them that I've read, I'd be shocked to see him back here.

[Aglets]

The Orioles are not giving any pitchers contracts for 4 or more years.

Jake apparently didn't want 6/126M . 

The math doesn't quite work out, this is just wishful thinking........and I'm not sure it's a good idea anyway.  I think whoever does sign Jake is going to regret that contract.

 

[Aristotelian]

I can't imagine a world in which Arrieta pitches for the Orioles or the Orioles pay Arrieta. 

[tntoriole]

It would be the most shocking offseason development in Orioles history.  And I think Dan is anything but shocking.  And then there is Potter.   I might win the lottery as likely. 

[bobmc]

2 hours ago, weams said:

Not the slightest chance. 

But they could obtain Jake anyway....    

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/jake-odorizzi

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/02/sifting-through-spring-training-storylines.html

[El Gordo]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

No I have not heard anything.  But just look at the situation that is forming.

MLBTR calls the changes of the Twins signing Arrieta as "remote".   They prefer Cobb or Lynn.  I think the Brewers are in the same place.  

The Nats are often thought of as the landing spot for Jake but Rizzo says  "“We have great confidence in our in-house options"  Cole and Fredde.   The Nats are probably already over the luxury tax  for 2018.  The payroll is 178m.    Scherzer AAV is 30m. Strasburg is 25m, and Murphy is 16m  that adds about 17m. So for luxury tax purposes they ar at 195m.   Each team adds 14m for benefits to the luxury tax.  That makes them at 209m   The Nats where over the luxury tax in 2017 so this would be their 2nd year.   Each dollar over the 197m luxury tax limit cost the team 30%.   That mean if Jake gets 21m (like Darvish) then the Nats pay 27m for him.  And the Nets would have no room to add during the season.

The Yankees are in a similar situation.   They are at 161m  add 14m for medical they are at 175m  Add Jake a 21m and they are at 196.   The Yankees need to stay under 197m to break the years of going over the luxury tax which is cost them a 50% add for every dollar over the 197m  limit.   Cashman is on record saying he wants room to add  during the season.     The Yankees signing Jake looks unlikely.

The O's will not go 4 years on Cobb or Lynn.  They do  not like  the medicals of Vargas, Cashner and Garcia.   They may on;y offer one year contracts with an option on those three.  They are competing with the Jays, Twins, Phillies and maybe Angels for these three players.    The O's need three starters.

The O's are at about 126m.  Their opening day payroll last year was 164m,   They are 38m under that.  Plus anything they can defer in a contract. 

Jake has had no recent medical problems.   If Darvish set Jake's  rate at 21m and the O's will go 3 years with a vesting option on a 4th year then that may be the best offer that Jake gets.   The other teams that I think might be interested at that level are the Phillies and Rangers.

Dan likes to wait for the bargains late in the offseason.   This year Jake could be the O's Cruz.  Jake's market looks very thin.

Its all speculation at this time but if the market plays out the way it looks like it might, they O's may have a chance at Jake.

   

Where are you getting this? Do you have a source other than your service entrance? I doubt Jake or the O's want anything to do with one another. But more to the point Boras will be holding out for ever for more than Darvish got and Dan wont want to wait for that dance to end.

[Beef Supreme]

The Orioles will not pursue Arrieta. Also, he is no "bargain" at $20MM. And his diminished velocity suggests there is a medical problem.

[UpstateNYfan]

His TTP disqualifies him automatically.

[MDtransplant757]

Technically we'd be signing a home grown starter to a long deal for once

[wildcard]

Maybe you guys know more about  Jake's history with the O's then I do.   Jake was a struggling minor leaguer who couldn't control his stuff when Buck had him in 2011-2013.   No one knew how to make him a major league pitchier.   Connor nor Adair helped him.   I don't know that there were hard feeling between Jake and the O's.  It just did not work.

If Jake came back it would be as an established pitcher,  Buck and McDowell would just let him do it his way.

To me it all about money.  Angelos has already give Davis 23m/yr.   21m for Jake seems possible for 3 yr plus a vesting option.   The O's have the need for him.

The real reason why it would not happen is the the Rangers change their direction and bring him back to Texas where is was born and went to college.   Or the the Phillies out bid the O's.  Boras is all about money any way.

Boras settling for 3/63 will be a long process.  It will probably not happen in the next month but maybe by opening day.  Meanwhile Jake works out at Boras complex.