A few interesting PECOTA comps

[Just Regular]

From first skim of this year's BP annual

MASN Special: Tim Beckham = Danny Espinosa

Least Surprising:  Chris Davis = Ryan Howard

Promising: Adam Hall got Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor.  The biographical detail he was a Bermudan emigre to Canada was new to me.

Passing of the Torch: Austin Hays = Adam Jones

Transcending Trumbo: Trey Mancini = Corey Dickerson.  Last year I saw Mancini as Trumbo's Mini-Me, but he's been a .300 hitter for 2500 professional at-bats.  Calling him a 60 Hit feels too good to be true - how well he consolidates a pretty big driver of how viable our wildcard nucleus is after Machado.

Regular All-Star: Jonathan Schoop = Bret Boone/Jeff Kent

Also Promising: Chance Sisco got Carlos Santana and Josh Donaldson

Let's Hope This Time is Better: Keegan Akin = Garrett Olson

Mixed Bag: Dylan Bundy got David Price and Yovani Gallardo (presumably the good young version)

 

[Can_of_corn]

"But Chris Davis is so athletic.  He's going to age a lot better than Ryan Howard."

- Paraphrased from a half a dozen different posters.

 

I do wonder how they can even run a comp for Hall.  He played what two games in the Gulf Coast league?

[Redskins Rick]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

"But Chris Davis is so athletic.  He's going to age a lot better than Ryan Howard."

- Paraphrased from a half a dozen different posters.

 

I do wonder how they can even run a comp for Hall.  He played what two games in the Gulf Coast league?

Hey, when you sit at a keyboard, you can pretty much type anything and send it out to the sports world!

Yes, Davis sucked last year, with a -.1 WAR.

To compare him with Ryan Howard at this point, is ludicrous. IMO

Ryan's WARs has been 1.2, 1.2, -1.2, .6, -1, -1.4, -1.5 = -3.3

Ryan has been pathetic, and I haven't crunched the numbers, but I suspect maybe the worst 1st or even worst position player in baseball, playing full time. Ryan cant even put up a position oWAR value.

Is this saying, Davis won't be there? Hell no. But, its saying he isn't there yet, his last 7 WAR = 18 and just one poor season.

I pray to the baseball gods that he doesn't follow the path of Howard.

 

[clapdiddy]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

"But Chris Davis is so athletic.  He's going to age a lot better than Ryan Howard."

- Paraphrased from a half a dozen different posters.

 

I do wonder how they can even run a comp for Hall.  He played what two games in the Gulf Coast league?

Yup...I was one of those.   Although,  I never liked a 7-year deal for Davis.   

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Hey, when you sit at a keyboard, you can pretty much type anything and send it out to the sports world!

Yes, Davis sucked last year, with a -.1 WAR.

To compare him with Ryan Howard at this point, is ludicrous. IMO

Ryan's WARs has been 1.2, 1.2, -1.2, .6, -1, -1.4, -1.5 = -3.3

Ryan has been pathetic, and I haven't crunched the numbers, but I suspect maybe the worst 1st or even worst position player in baseball, playing full time. Ryan cant even put up a position oWAR value.

Is this saying, Davis won't be there? Hell no. But, its saying he isn't there yet, his last 7 WAR = 18 and just one poor season.

I pray to the baseball gods that he doesn't follow the path of Howard.

 

At 31 Howard put up a 1.2 WAR season.

[Redskins Rick]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

At 31 Howard put up a 1.2 WAR season.

Okay, but its still way too dang early to make the comparison. IMO

Thats not saying, he wont be that bad.

God help us, if he is.

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

At 31 Howard put up a 1.2 WAR season.

Still a pretty weak comp IMO. The body of work says Davis is a much, much better player.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Still a pretty weak comp IMO. The body of work says Davis is a much, much better player.

Right, Howard won a RoY and a MVP,  finished in the top 5 of the MVP three other times but Davis is a much, much, better player.  

Howard through age 31 season - 19.4 rWAR

Davis through age 31 season- 17.6 rWAR

Of course Howard's decline was at least partially due to injury.  Davis has thus far avoided serious injury.

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right, Howard won a RoY and a MVP,  finished in the top 5 of the MVP three other times but Davis is a much, much, better player.  

Howard through age 31 season - 19.4 rWAR

Davis through age 31 season- 17.6 rWAR

Of course Howard's decline was at least partially due to injury.  Davis has thus far avoided serious injury.

Well... fair. It'll be interesting to see how those WAR numbers shake out for their careers, though.

[Frobby]

I doubt Davis will be as bad as Howard, who was worth -4.5 rWAR over the life of his five-year deal.    That doesn’t mean his contract isn’t a disaster, though.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I doubt Davis will be as bad as Howard, who was worth -4.5 rWAR over the life of his five-year deal.    That doesn’t mean his contract isn’t a disaster, though.   

I agree, Howard's final numbers were influenced by his injury.  But I do think he's a fair comp for Davis.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agree, Howard's final numbers were influenced by his injury.  But I do think he's a fair comp for Davis.

So do I.    Very fair.   

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agree, Howard's final numbers were influenced by his injury.  But I do think he's a fair comp for Davis.

Not sure if I buy this for the entire remainder of his career.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

Not sure if I buy this for the entire remainder of his career.

I wasn't claiming it for the rest of his career.

Certainly his age 32 and 33 seasons.

[MDtransplant757]

2 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

From first skim of this year's BP annual

MASN Special: Tim Beckham = Danny Espinosa

Least Surprising:  Chris Davis = Ryan Howard

Promising: Adam Hall got Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor.  The biographical detail he was a Bermudan emigre to Canada was new to me.

Passing of the Torch: Austin Hays = Adam Jones

Transcending Trumbo: Trey Mancini = Corey Dickerson.  Last year I saw Mancini as Trumbo's Mini-Me, but he's been a .300 hitter for 2500 professional at-bats.  Calling him a 60 Hit feels too good to be true - how well he consolidates a pretty big driver of how viable our wildcard nucleus is after Machado.

Regular All-Star: Jonathan Schoop = Bret Boone/Jeff Kent

Also Promising: Chance Sisco got Carlos Santana and Josh Donaldson

Let's Hope This Time is Better: Keegan Akin = Garrett Olson

Mixed Bag: Dylan Bundy got David Price and Yovani Gallardo (presumably the good young version)

 

Tim Beckham as 2012 Espinosa, or Espinosa now?

Davis to Howard is valid

Adam Hall, we'll see. Far to early to label him now

Hays and Jones makes sense. Now if Jones can teach Hays how to be a leader in the clubhouse

Mancini to dickerson is pretty spot on

Schoop would be a regular All star if Jose Altuve played in the NL. 

That's a bit high on sisco, but makes sense if he adds power. 

Akin was/is a better prospect than Olson ever could have hoped to be. 

If that's Bundy's cieling and floor, i'll be happy with that.