Cashner signing

[weams]

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

 

 

 

If the Orioles are broke they are being mismanaged.  See this article on the Orioles in Forbes in April of 2017:

https://www.forbes.com/teams/baltimore-orioles/ 

The Orioles had an operating loss in 16 and I presume they did in 17 as well.  The operating loss was $2.1 million on revenues of $253M.  Of course the value of the franchise rose 18% to 1.175 Billion.  While the article that is attached mentions the legal battle over MASN, it does not give a value to MASN nor does it stipulate if it is counted in the valuation though I presume it is.  

Broke is not where the Orioles are..cash poor and needing to get to a lower expense number?  Yeah, seems most of baseball is working on that and the Orioles should too.

But we should not be using terms that will mislead folks here.  The Orioles are not broke.  Unless you know something... If they are?  Wouldn't that increase the odds that my hunch that they are preparing for sale is on point?

 

1 hour ago, weams said:

My opinion is that they are not in good financial shape. And may be mismanaged. 

I'm not going to push...but I have to ask...so even assuming additional loses of say $10M in '17 added to the $2.1M in '16.  $12M+/- in loses for a say $1.5 Billion franchise is neither broke nor is it in "not good financial shape".  I concede that your knowledge of where the Orioles are for '17 and headed into '18 is certainly better than mine.  But......broke?  Poor financial shape?  WHY?

Attendance vs payroll do not account for much more than the number I use above.  Admittedly for financial numbers it is heavy on the back of the envelope.  But also what about the MLB payout....I just cant find anything to square your statement.  I trust you, so this concerns me.

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

I agree with you wildcard. It is time for a FA pitcher signing to finally work out for the Orioles. The Orioles have definitely had some very bad luck when it comes to a FA pitcher signing. I hope Cashner is an Oriole for three years.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

I agree with you wildcard. It is time for a FA pitcher signing to finally work out for the Orioles. The Orioles have definitely had some very bad luck when it comes to a FA pitcher signing. I hope Cashner is an Oriole for three years.

I hope he opts out after two.

[weams]

10 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

I'm not going to push...but I have to ask...so even assuming additional loses of say $10M in '17 added to the $2.1M in '16.  $12M+/- in loses for a say $1.5 Billion franchise is neither broke nor is it in "not good financial shape".  I concede that your knowledge of where the Orioles are for '17 and headed into '18 is certainly better than mine.  But......broke?  Poor financial shape?  WHY?

Attendance vs payroll do not account for much more than the number I use above.  Admittedly for financial numbers it is heavy on the back of the envelope.  But also what about the MLB payout....I just cant find anything to square your statement.  I trust you, so this concerns me.

I have no facts or data to really refute any positive spins. I think that the payroll is by nature a 120ish and they have spent so much more the last few years. They sell all of their international monies. They have traded comp pick to save money. They extended no one. I really think the Chris Davis thing was an attempt to win it all for Angelos the Elder. I think it was the Hail Mary.  2014 was really their year. 

[weams]

Just now, weams said:

I have no facts or data to really refute any positive spins. I think that the payroll is by nature a 120ish and they have spent so much more the last few years. They sell all of their international monies. They have traded comp pick to save money. They extended no one. I really think the Chris Davis thing was an attempt to win it all for Angelos the Elder. I think it was the Hail Mary.  2014 was really their year. 

The MLB profit sharing and BAM money was what I think funded the Os since 2015. I would not be surprised if they were back on debt watch. 

[weams]

And don't trust me on this. I have NO insider information and I am sure the "Angelos is Midas" crowd will be sure to note his guilded toilets. Which I've never seen. 

I just smell an organization running a bit on fumes for a while. 

[weams]

Just now, weams said:

And don't trust me on this. I have NO insider information and I am sure the "Angelos is Midas" crowd will be sure to note his guilded toilets. Which I've never seen. 

I just smell an organization running a bit on fumes for a while. 

With a real old owner who won't do rebuild.

[atomic]

27 minutes ago, weams said:

I think he spent BAMtech the last two years. MASN is a farce. 

From what I have read the Orioles got 50 million in profit from MASN.   I don't really care how Peter Angelos spends his money.   But I don't think he is doing badly.   I think he donated 20 million to U of Baltimore law School to get family name on a building.   The Lounge for big donaters at symphony is named after Angelo's as well.   I am sure that requires a huge donation. I think he has loads of money. 

[theocean]

34 minutes ago, weams said:

I think he spent BAMtech the last two years. MASN is a farce. 

I think BAMtech money was used last two years as well. Over the last few years, the O's have had a little over 2 million fans attend games - which puts them on Atlanta, Arizona, Seattle's level. I think $130-$140 million payroll is what the O's can realistically do.

As far as MASN - who knows what they actually bring in. I get the feeling it doesn't bring in as much money as people would expect. But, I could be totally wrong. All I know is that I hope it sticks around as long as it means I get to hear Gary Thorne call games while drinking Jack Daniels and Jim Palmer be his normal sassy self.

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

Thanks for hijacking this post boys. We are supposed to be talking about new Oriole Andrew Cashner. Remember?

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

Working hypothesis:

1) Angelos realized that the window had closed when the pitching went south last year.   Not only that, but attendance has dropped steadily and season tickets are way down for this year.   Season tickets correlate to total ticket sales, so even if the team miraculously had a great season, attendance would still likely drop.   Walkup helps but only on good weather days and can't make up for the loss of many 81 game plan holders.

2) So Angelos dialled back the budget this year.   This is a demarcation year.   Manny, Britton, Jones, Showalter, Duquette, Brach -- all gone after this year.   He knows in his wrinkled, dusty heart, that we can't win.

3) But DD was instructed to give lip service to winning so that the fans wouldn't completely abandon ship in droves.   A tourniquet to stop the bleeding this year.   Remember, there's thousands of fans who don't follow it as closely as we do.  They'll see we signed Cashner, we have some young guys, and they'll be hopeful.   We're an echo chamber in here, reinforcing each other's despair about the future of the franchise.   We are aware of advanced stats that 80% of people who go to games and spend money are not.   There are plenty of O's fans who watch 100+ games a year, go to 20+, but they don't follow baseball the way we do.   They don't study the FIPs of new acquisitions, or even think about baseball much at all until Opening Day.   Then they give it their full attention.   They've probably never heard of Cashner but they'll read the paper tomorrow and like his ERA from last year, and they'll form their opinion of him watching him pitch starting in April.   The doom and gloom in our niche segment of the fanbase hasn't quite gotten out to all Oriole fandom.   They know we had a bad year and had sucky pitching and the suckiest of the pitchers are gone, and they're waiting to see how the replacements do.   So just by talking about trying to compete, DD is preventing some folks from ditching their season tickets.

4) Next year we bring in fresh new GM, manager, start a youth movement highlighted by Harvey, Sisco, Hays, Akin, Stewart, Santander, Mullins... try to market it as a completely new era.   You won't be able to hide the fact that one era has ended with all those guys leaving, so you'll have to admit you are building.   Hope to get a 1989-style youth infusion and start growing the fanbase back.

Does that explain the inexplicable offseason?  

I agree completely.  Or Angelos is more infirm than the public is told and it is just do nothing by default.   Excellent post. 

[tntoriole]

40 minutes ago, weams said:

His ERA goes up by at least a run when he is forced to lose the beard. 

[foxfield]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I look at Cashner as a .500 pitcher who should be able to hit his 3 year averages.  29 start, 160 IP   4.26 ERA 

That will be a big improvement over Jimenez who he replaces. 

This. Is. Right.

[atomic]

From Forbes article said Orioles lost 2 million last year.  Team was bought for 173 million they estimate it is now worth 1.1 billion.   They say 15 percent debt.   If Angelo's needed money he could easily sell 10 percent of club or he could have team take out a loan for 100 million and pay himself a 100 million dollar dividend.   At his age I think 100 million could get him through the rest of his life even if he didn't stick to a budget.