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Cashner signing

jcaponio

By jcaponio
in Orioles Talk

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I agree it’s not a promising profile, but one thing I noticed when I was digging through the data on brooksbaseball was that it seems like the lower strikeout rate was mostly a matter of choice for Cashner. He switched from Slider to Cutter which missed far less bats. He also threw his sinker much more instead of his 4S fastball that generates almost twice as many swinging strikes. I’m tempted at least to think he could go back to 2015/2016 Cashner if he wanted to.

I think it was on purpose, and that's part of what's worrying.  He probably thinks that the change directly lead to his 2017 success.  I think if you ran his 2017 season over a bunch of times you'd see that a 3.40 ERA is about as good as it would ever get, and most pitchers with his underlying peripherals would have an ERA north of 4.50.  It'll take a period of sustained poor results for him to want to go back to his 2015-16 approach that resulted in an 81 ERA+ in National League pitcher's parks.

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Es4M11 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Es4M11

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4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I agree it’s not a promising profile, but one thing I noticed when I was digging through the data on brooksbaseball was that it seems like the lower strikeout rate was mostly a matter of choice for Cashner. He switched from Slider to Cutter which missed far less bats. He also threw his sinker much more instead of his 4S fastball that generates almost twice as many swinging strikes. I’m tempted at least to think he could go back to 2015/2016 Cashner if he wanted to.

I tend to agree with you that some of Cashner's lack of strikeouts is by choice. I suspect he elected to pitch to contact a little more with the Texas infield behind him. A ground ball pitcher playing to his strengths.

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Es4M11 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Es4M11

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think it was on purpose, and that's part of what's worrying.  He probably thinks that the change directly lead to his 2017 success.  I think if you ran his 2017 season over a bunch of times you'd see that a 3.40 ERA is about as good as it would ever get, and most pitchers with his underlying peripherals would have an ERA north of 4.50.  It'll take a period of sustained poor results for him to want to go back to his 2015-16 approach that resulted in an 81 ERA+ in National League pitcher's parks.

Cashner's regression is practically certain, but if the regression is from 3.4x ERA to 4.50, I think that is still a win for the Orioles considering the dollars that were committed. I do not discount the possibility that he could be much worse and that this could be a bad signing.

At face value, IMO, this is a good signing if there is another larger acquisition coming. If this is the best pitcher the club intends to sign then I would rather they had not even bothered.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We made the playoffs in 2016 with a rotation of Tillman, Gausman, Ubaldo, Gallardo, Wright/Wilson/Worley. 

I think Bundy, Gausman, Cashner, Tillman, Castro/Cortes/Wright could be better. 

For 2016, you should have included Bundy, who made more starts (14) than Wright (12), Wilson (13) or Worley (4).   Miley also made 11 starts.  

I’m definitely not ready to say this rotation will be better than that one, but that one certainly wasn’t very good (4.72 ERA, 13th in the AL), so it’s possible.   

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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7 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

Cashner's regression is practically certain, but if the regression is from 3.4x ERA to 4.50, I think that is still a win for the Orioles considering the dollars that were committed. I do not discount the possibility that he could be much worse and that this could be a bad signing.

At face value, IMO, this is a good signing if there is another larger acquisition coming. If this is the best pitcher the club intends to sign then I would rather they had not even bothered.

Yes, it's a positive thing that they just paid for one win.  But on the other hand... they just paid for one win, and stuck it in the #3 spot in the rotation.

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

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58 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There have been seven pitchers in the last five years who had a K rate under 5.00, and qualified for the ERA title.

Kevin Correia, 2013.  In 2014 he posted a 5.44 ERA, and in 2015 he pitched the last 23 innings of his career.
Jeremy Guthrie, 2013.  In 2014 he actually upped his K rate and had a better year.  In 2015 his ERA was 5.95 and his career essentially ended.
Martin Perez, 2016.  In 2017 he had a 4.82 ERA.
Cashner, Perez' teammate.
Ty Blach, 2017.  Obviously we don't know about 2018 yet. In '17 he had a 4.78 ERA, good for a 87 ERA+.
Mark Buehrle, 2015.  Retired after the season.
Mike Pelfrey, 2015.  In the following two years he combined to throw 239 innings to a 5.50.

"Ground ball pitcher" is a descriptive term, not a quality measurement.

You would have hated Scott Mcgregor.  Never struck out 5 guys per nine innings in a season in his career. 

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Es4M11 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Es4M11

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yes, it's a positive thing that they just paid for one win.  But on the other hand... they just paid for one win, and stuck it in the #3 spot in the rotation.

I'm hoping there is more to come. Not holding my breath or anything, but why defer some of Cashner's money this year unless you have immediate plans for it?

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

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36 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

I tend to agree with you that some of Cashner's lack of strikeouts is by choice. I suspect he elected to pitch to contact a little more with the Texas infield behind him. A ground ball pitcher playing to his strengths.

Texas was ranked 25th (out of 30) in team fielding last season so I'm not sure that strategy holds up. 

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

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Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

I wouldn't rule it out. I'm pretty sure the Oriole's spring training facility has the same words engraved on it as the statue of liberty when it comes to starting pitchers. 

Im not ruling it out, but it makes sense, since he was willing to accept a bounce-back deal, and a few teams has kicked the tires, and nobody has inked him.

 

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