Cashner signing

[weams]

[weams]

[weams]

[weams]

[Babypowder]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Even if you don’t like Cashner, that seems like a ridiculously negative take.   Shocked if he’s below 6.00? Based on what?   His 3.40 ERA from last year?   His 3.80 career ERA?    His 102 career ERA+?    His career 3.99 FIP?    His 4.61 FIP from last year?   His 5.43 ERA projection from Steamer?   His 4.91 projection from ZiPS?

I think those projections are in line with what I expect. However, there’s enough red flags in the peripherals that an absolute disaster (6+ ERA) is well within the realm of possibilities. In fact, there’s already been a post showing that all other pitchers in the last 50 years with this kind of gap between their ERA and peripherals have exploded in the immediately following season.

[weams]

On 2/15/2018 at 7:31 PM, cimota said:

 The Lounge for big donaters at symphony is named after Angelo's as well.   I am sure that requires a huge donation. I think he has loads of money. 

2

Many thousands in fact.

[foxfield]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/blue-jays-continue-sneaky-good-offseason-with-jaime-garcia/

“At around the same time the Orioles were finalizing a two year deal for Andrew Cashner, the Toronto Blue Jays signed a better pitcher at about half the cost.”

???  Am I missing something here?  Jamie Garcia gets a two year deal that is really a one year deal.  Cashner gets a two year deal that is really a three year deal.  And it is the Jays who have done well?  If these guys are both simply average, Garcia is gets 18M for 2 years and Cashner 16M for 2 years.  If they suck, Cashner gets 16M and Garcia gets 18M for 2 years.  If they are the two best pitchers in baseball over the next two years, Garcia gets rich with someone else, and the Orioles get Cashner for a third year at still bargain bin pricing.

This is not great signing by any means, but the creativity here is border line brilliant and the author of this article, Craig Edwards, is either just blind with hatred to write the line you quote, or is an idiot.  

Mr. Edwards, if I misunderstand your math, my apologies will be forthcoming.... 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, foxfield said:

???  Am I missing something here?  Jamie Garcia gets a two year deal that is really a one year deal.  Cashner gets a two year deal that is really a one year deal.  And it is the Jays who have done well?  If these guys are both simply average, Garcia is gets 18M for 2 years and Cashner 16M for 2 years.  If they suck, Cashner gets 16M and Garcia gets 18M for 2 years.  If they are the two best pitchers in baseball over the next two years, Garcia gets rich with someone else, and the Orioles get Cashner for a third year at still bargain bin pricing.

This is not great signing by any means, but the creativity here is border line brilliant and the author of this article, Craig Edwards, is either just blind with hatred to write the line you quote, or is an idiot.  

Mr. Edwards, if I misunderstand your math, my apologies will be forthcoming.... 

How is Cashner’s deal really a one year deal?   He’s signed for two years guaranteed at $16 mm.    Garcia is signed for one year guaranteed at $8 mm.

[foxfield]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How is Cashner’s deal really a one year deal?   He’s signed for two years guaranteed at $16 mm.    Garcia is signed for one year guaranteed at $8 mm.

Mistyped and I corrected....Cashner is really a three year deal....at least by what I meant.  Garcia is guaranteed 10M if I read the 2M buyout for year two.  No?

[foxfield]

And I guess that in reality, if they both suck...Garcia gets 10M for 1 year and Cashner gets 16M for 2.  Again, if that us winning and great job by the Jays.  I don't see it.  

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Mistyped and I corrected....Cashner is really a three year deal....at least by what I meant.  Garcia is guaranteed 10M if I read the 2M buyout for year two.  No?

You’re right about that part.   

Seems to me the big issue is who does better.    The thesis of the article is that Garcia is the better pitcher.   We’ll see.    The unconditional commitment is definitely lower.  Personally, if Cashner earns all his incentives and turns out to earn 3/$41 mm, I’ll be happy he did it and won’t worry much about whatever Garcia did or was paid.   It’s not at all certain Cashner will earn that third year — it vests at 340 innings, which Cashner has never done in two consecutive seasons.    

[weams]

18 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Mistyped and I corrected....Cashner is really a three year deal....at least by what I meant.  Garcia is guaranteed 10M if I read the 2M buyout for year two.  No?

But if Cashner is bad, or injured, he's out after two. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Even if you don’t like Cashner, that seems like a ridiculously negative take.   Shocked if he’s below 6.00? Based on what?   His 3.40 ERA from last year?   His 3.80 career ERA?    His 102 career ERA+?    His career 3.99 FIP?    His 4.61 FIP from last year?   His 5.43 ERA projection from Steamer?   His 4.91 projection from ZiPS?

6.00 is very negative, maybe hyperbolically.  But 5.00 is not unreasonable.  102 ERA+ for his career, and last year the Orioles and their opponents averaged 4.88 runs/team/game.

1.20 delta between FIP and ERA means something like a 80-90% chance of significant regression.

[Es4M11]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

6.00 is very negative, maybe hyperbolically.  But 5.00 is not unreasonable.  102 ERA+ for his career, and last year the Orioles and their opponents averaged 4.88 runs/team/game.

1.20 delta between FIP and ERA means something like a 80-90% chance of significant regression.

I can live with 4.50 ERA. Could be worse, but might be better, too

[mdbdotcom]

22 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

6.00 is very negative, maybe hyperbolically.  But 5.00 is not unreasonable.  102 ERA+ for his career, and last year the Orioles and their opponents averaged 4.88 runs/team/game.

1.20 delta between FIP and ERA means something like a 80-90% chance of significant regression.

As I heard one sabermetrics savant put it, Cashner has to manage contact better than any other pitcher in MLB in order to be an average major league pitcher. That sounds like something that probably doesn't happen two years in a row.