Starting Pitchers-Best Stat

[Bahama O's Fan]

If you could pick one single stat only to judge starting pitchers on, which one would it be and why?

[bird watcher]

Over what kind of sample size?  Multiple years?

[Bahama O's Fan]

Just now, bird watcher said:

Over what kind of sample size?  Multiple years?

Yes, over their career.

[Luke-OH]

Over a huge multiple year sample size ERA- does a pretty good job. It adjusts for the park and standardizes ERA to league average. Anything two years or less, you probably want to strip out defense. So you’d go with FIP- or xFIP- depending on how much control you think a pitcher has over the quality of their flyball contact.

[Larry18]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Yes, over their career.

Career I'd use rWAR. 

[Frobby]

Just to start off with a relatively obscure stat, I’ll go with Adjusted Pitching Runs.   Career leaders:

Cy Young 784

Roger Clemens 708

Walter Johnson 650

Lefty Grove 618

Kid Nichols 615

Greg Maddux 531

Grover Cleveland Alexander 514

Randy Johnson 497

Pedro Martinez 485

Tom Seaver 438

Other notables: Curt Schilling 354 (16th), Mike Mussina 345 (17th), Jim Palmer 340 (20th).

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/apRuns_career.shtml

It’s a cumulative stat, so longevity matters, but excellence over a shorter career also gets rewarded, as shown by Pedro Martinez’s high standing on the list.   In fact, Mariano Rivera weighs in at 21st on the list.

The active leaders in this stat are interesting:

Kershaw 324

Verlander 229

Sabathia 225

Hernandez 221

Greinke 217

Look how far Kershaw is ahead of everybody else, and how close he is already to the likes of Schilling, Mussina and Palmer.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/apRuns_active.shtml

 

[DrungoHazewood]

Strikeout rate compared to league average.  K/BB ratio would be good, too.

Speaking broadly, a pitcher's career is a long (or sometimes short) battle against declining strikeout rates.  As long as you're well above average you're good.  Once you slip below a certain point you're living on borrowed time.  That point used to be around 4.5 when I was a kid, in the 1980s.  Today it's probably more like six.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Strikeout rate compared to league average.  K/BB ratio would be good, too.

Speaking broadly, a pitcher's career is a long (or sometimes short) battle against declining strikeout rates.  As long as you're well above average you're good.  Once you slip below a certain point you're living on borrowed time.  That point used to be around 4.5 when I was a kid, in the 1980s.  Today it's probably more like six.

Hello my friend, good to see you around these parts.

I image that number was pretty low in the mid 60s, and low ERA days of the higher mound?

I think there is such a fine line these days, for a pitcher to have success, that it doesn't take much, and they become very hittable.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Strikeout rate compared to league average.  K/BB ratio would be good, too.

Speaking broadly, a pitcher's career is a long (or sometimes short) battle against declining strikeout rates.  As long as you're well above average you're good.  Once you slip below a certain point you're living on borrowed time.  That point used to be around 4.5 when I was a kid, in the 1980s.  Today it's probably more like six.

So Nolan Ryan is the greatest pitcher of all time?    Sorry, not buying it.   

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Hello my friend, good to see you around these parts.

I image that number was pretty low in the mid 60s, and low ERA days of the higher mound?

I think there is such a fine line these days, for a pitcher to have success, that it doesn't take much, and they become very hittable.

I don't know, the strikeout rate in the 60s was in the fives, so I'm guessing anything under 4.0 was trouble.

But then you also have Mike Torrez, which I have yet to put my mind around.  My theory is this 1975 season in Baltimore* was a bizarre and unholy combination of Mark Belanger and a great defense, maybe some kind of a spitball, and a now-extinct strategy to pitch around anyone who wasn't one of those 1970s shortstops who weighed 148 pounds and hit .206.

* 20-9, 3.06, down-ballot MVP support in a year where he walked 133 and struck out 119 in 270 innings.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't know, the strikeout rate in the 60s was in the fives, so I'm guessing anything under 4.0 was trouble.

But then you also have Mike Torrez, which I have yet to put my mind around.  My theory is this 1975 season in Baltimore* was a bizarre and unholy combination of Mark Belanger and a great defense, maybe some kind of a spitball, and a now-extinct strategy to pitch around anyone who wasn't one of those 1970s shortstops who weighed 148 pounds and hit .206.

* 20-9, 3.06, down-ballot MVP support in a year where he walked 133 and struck out 119 in 270 innings.

1975 was a black hole and no baseball for me. My beloved Senators were gone, and I was totally hating on MLB.

It wasn't until 78 or 79, when a buddy took me to a Orioles game, and got me out of my funk.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So Nolan Ryan is the greatest pitcher of all time?    Sorry, not buying it.   

Because Nolan Ryan struck out as more/many batters as anyone (in context of his time/place) he was able to fashion a Hall of Fame career despite lapping the field in career walks and wild pitches. 

If you look at your list of Adjusted Pitching Runs leaders a common trait of all of them, is that they were better-than-MLB average strikeout pitchers for most or all of their careers.  Even Greg Maddux, known as an archetype of the finesse pitcher, was at or above the league strikeout rate throughout his prime.  Later on, as his K rate dropped, his performance fell, too.

Strikeouts define the limits of your ability to pitch in the majors.  Other things influence that, but of the basic stats strikeouts are clearly the most important thing for pitchers.  You have to be a historical oddity like Ryan or Maddux to start to operate just outside the limits of your strikeout rate.

[Frobby]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

Because Nolan Ryan struck out as more/many batters as anyone (in context of his time/place) he was able to fashion a Hall of Fame career despite lapping the field in career walks and wild pitches and hit by pitch. 

If you look at your list of Adjusted Pitching Runs leaders a common trait of all of them, is that they were better-than-MLB average strikeout pitchers for most or all of their careers.  Even Greg Maddux, known as an archetype of the finesse pitcher, was at or above the league strikeout rate throughout his prime.  Later on, as his K rate dropped, his performance fell, too.

Strikeouts define the limits of your ability to pitch in the majors.  Other things influence that, but of the basic stats strikeouts are clearly the most important thing for pitchers.  You have to be a historical oddity like Ryan or Maddux to start to operate just outside the limits of your strikeout rate.

I’m not denying that strikeouts are important.    I’m just saying focusing solely on strikeouts misses too much other information.    I’d rather use a stat that includes strikeouts but also other factors.    

[LC_O's_87]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’m not denying that strikeouts are important.    I’m just saying focusing solely on strikeouts misses too much other information.    I’d rather use a stat that includes strikeouts but also other factors.    

That's why he also referenced K/BB ratio which, coupled with K/9, really gives you the most skilled pitchers 

Guys with swing and miss stuff who don't have to nibble at the edges are the best.  It's a ratio stat so it won't quite capture the longevity as well as the metric you cited but it's probably the best combo IMO for individual pitcher skill:

Pedro Martinez -- K/9: 10.0 and K/BB: 4.15 // Career ERA 2.93

Clayton Kershaw - K/9: 9.9 and K/BB: 4.18 // Career ERA. 2.36

Nolan Ryan -- K/9: 9.5 and K/BB: 2.04 // Career ERA 3.19

Roger Clemens - K/9:  8.6 and K/BB: 2.96 // Career ERA 3.12

Randy Johnson - K/9: 10.6 and K/BB: 3.26 // Career ERA 3.29

But it's not perfect.....look at Maddux

Greg Maddux - K/9: 6.1 and K/BB 3.37 // Career ERA 3.16 

[Just Regular]

I've been won over to strikeouts minus walks (K%-BB%) as an upgrade on K/BB.  Straight K/BB is too nice to the Josh Tomlins of the world.