What do the starters really need to do for us to contend for a wild card spot?

[Frobby]

2016:   Tillman, Gausman and Bundy combined for 423.1 IP at a 3.83 ERA over 74 starts.   Everyone else totaled 462.2 IP, 5.54 ERA in 88 starts.   Result: 4.72 ERA in 886 IP.

2017:   Gausman and Bundy combined for 356.1 IP, 4.47 ERA in 62 games.   Everybody else combined for 6.60 in 489.2 IP over 100 games.  Result: 5.70 ERA in 846 IP.

You can see from this that we had both a front end and back end problem last year.    It will be good if our back end performs better this year, but the front end also needs to step up big-time.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Need another starter either Cobb or Lynn.

[now]

Yup, still waiting for Bundy and Gausman to make good on that #1-2 pedigree, for sure. (McDonald, Wieters all over again).

[theocean]

If Bundy, Gausman, Tillman, and Cashner all pitch like they are perfectly capable of doing - the O’s have a shot at the Wild Card.

Two of them probably have to post a sub 4.00 ERA. I think Bundy does this year. I’m not sure if the others pull it off.

Still a lot of players left unsigned. Not crazy to think the O’s get another arm.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, theocean said:

If Bundy, Gausman, Tillman, and Cashner all pitch like they are perfectly capable of doing - the O’s have a shot at the Wild Card.

Two of them probably have to post a sub 4.00 ERA. I think Bundy does this year. I’m not sure if the others pull it off.

Still a lot of players left unsigned. Not crazy to think the O’s get another arm.

Gausman has the ability to have a sub 4.00 ERA.  Whether Gausman puts together an entire season where he is consistent is the question.  

[25 Nuggets]

Well, the first thing you need to do is look in-division.  Here are the current projections courtesy of Fangraphs:

1. 94-68 Boston - 5.23 RS/G, 4.41 RA/G
2. 90-72 New York - 5.17 RS/G, 4.58 RA/G
3. 85-77 Toronto - 5.04 RS/G, 4.80 RA/G
4. 79-83 Tampa Bay - 4.31 RS/G, 4.41 RA/G
5. 73-89 Baltimore - 4.91 RS/G, 5.41 RA/G

They are projecting 19.0 WAR for the Orioles position players, which is 15th in the league.  Squarely in the middle.

They are projecting 7.9 WAR for the Orioles pitchers.  This is tied for 2nd worst in baseball with Detroit, only ahead of Chicago.  Chicago is surprising - they don't have either Giolito or Kopech having good rookie seasons, and they have a rotation ERA of 5.24.  But anyway...

If the Orioles position players are in fact middle-of-the-pack, then the pitching staff needs to be middle-of-the-pack minimum.  Here are the FanGraphs projections by role:

• 2018 Starts - 939.0 IP, 5.20 ERA, 6.9 K/9, 2.03 K/BB
• 2018 Relief - 519.0 IP, 4.47 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 2.31 K/BB

Compare to last year (from BB-Ref):

• 2017 Starts (45-69) - 846.0 IP, 5.70 ERA, 1.522 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.07 K/BB
• 2017 Relief (30-18) - 595.0 IP, 3.93 ERA, 1.338 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.22 K/BB

So the analytics actually show a substantial improvement in the rotation, though they're still bad.  They however also show a drop in bullpen performance.

So before talking about the rotation, we need the bullpen to put up another good season.  And that's without Britton to start.

Here's the breakdown of projections in the rotation then by rWAR.

• 2.4 Gausman
• 1.3 Bundy
• 0.7 Tillman
• 0.6 Cashner
• 0.3 Wright
• 0.2 Ynoa
• 0.1 Kelly
• 0.1 Harvey
• 0.1 Scott
• 0.0 Castro
• 0.0 Asher
• 0.0 Ramirez
• -0.1 Hess

They have Cortes notably in the bullpen.  Gausman is the ONLY pitcher they have with an ERA under five.

So, where the rotation needs to improve is obvious to me.  Bundy needs to do better than that.  He must replicate his modest success last year (4.24 ERA, 2.7 rWAR), or even improve on it.  Cashner needs to do better.  Four of the past five seasons he's been a 2-win pitcher.  Heck, he's not even ahead of Tillman on this list!

Finally, Tillman needs to rebound.  But even at 0.7 rWAR, that's a rebound.  The Orioles need either a big surprise from the AAAA guys... or one more good starting pitcher.

In conclusion, this long winded response is the same as my short one.

GET LANCE LYNN

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I don't see any way Bundy has a 5+ ERA this year.  I really want to know why Fangraphs is projecting  Bundy to regress.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I don't see any way Bundy has a 5+ ERA this year.  I really want to know why Fangraphs is projecting  Bundy to regress.  

Did you see the rotographs article about how he was the luckiest pitcher in the majors last year?

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did you see the rotographs article about how he was the luckiest pitcher in the majors last year?

 

I haven't read that article, will google it later.  Bundy's FIP improved to 4.38 last year, and he cut down on his walks.  I just don't see him falling off a cliff even if the advanced metrics say otherwise.  

[Ripken]

Bundy and Gaus look like top half rotation guys, add Lynn (or Cobb), and pray Chris Davis can OPS 1.000

[wildbillhiccup]

Claim him and trade Brach or GIvens for starting pitching. This isn't rocket science. Trade. For. Pitching. 

Braves designated RHP Mauricio Cabrera for assignment.

The move clears a spot on the 40-man roster for Peter Moylan. Cabrera was a disaster in the minors last season, but he's just 24 and can touch triple digits on the radar gun, so he figures to get scooped up on waivers.

[wildbillhiccup]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did you see the rotographs article about how he was the luckiest pitcher in the majors last year?

 

I did. Bundy's definitely in line for an era regression. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I did. Bundy's definitely in line for an era regression. 

I’ll bet he isn’t.   

[eddie83]

A collective ERA of around 4.50. 

As much as the addition of Cashner and return of Tillman are huge, Bundy and Gausman to me are the key.  Hard to fathom the team having a decent rotation if one of them struggles/ injured. Going to need 60-65 starts from them with an ERA at worst around 4.  Hope for ERA of around 4.50 for Cashner and Tillman and the number 5 spot not to be a total debacle. 

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, Frobby said:

I’ll bet he isn’t.   

I'm guessing closer to 4.5, but I hope I'm wrong.