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Even Money Wager on 2018 Tillman

Beef Supreme

By Beef Supreme
in Orioles Talk

2018 Chris Tillman will perform like...  

21 members have voted

  1. 1. One or the other. No wiggle.

    • 2016 Chris Tillman 16-7, 3.77 ERA, 172 IPs, 1.285 WHIP
      10
    • 2017 Chris Tillman 1-7, 7.84, 93 IPs, 1.892 WHIP
      11

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Beef Supreme Hangout Veteran Council

Beef Supreme

Posted
Posted

Some of us are optimistic about Chris Tillman having a healthy 2018 season and returning to past form. Others are pessimistic, some of whom believe he is not healthy and will perform poorly this upcoming season. So here is your imaginary $100 bill that you must bet on this:

2018 Chris Tillman will perform like...

2016 Chris Tillman 16-7, 3.77 ERA, 172 IPs, 1.285 WHIP
or
2017 Chris Tillman 1-7, 7.84, 93 IPs, 1.892 WHIP

So you have to bet your $100 on one of the two options above. Which Tillman will show in 2018?

(You do not get "somewhere in between" as a choice. You just lose your $100 if that's your answer.)
 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Some of us are optimistic about Chris Tillman having a healthy 2018 season and returning to past form. Others are pessimistic, some of whom believe he is not healthy and will perform poorly this upcoming season. So here is your imaginary $100 bill that you must bet on this:

2018 Chris Tillman will perform like...

2016 Chris Tillman 16-7, 3.77 ERA, 172 IPs, 1.285 WHIP
or
2017 Chris Tillman 1-7, 7.84, 93 IPs, 1.892 WHIP

So you have to bet your $100 on one of the two options above. Which Tillman will show in 2018?

(You do not get "somewhere in between" as a choice. You just lose your $100 if that's your answer.)
 

Shame you won't allow 2015's Fat Tillman.  11-11, 4.99 ERA, 1.387 WHIP.

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OsEatAlEast Hangout Grand Counsel

OsEatAlEast

Posted
Posted

I've been trying to kick the pessimist in me that has me not even liking baseball half as much as I did when I was a kid out. So I'm going to say Tillman returns to form this year...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Then signs a long term contract with the O's and bombs like most other guys who sign long term with the O's.:o

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

That isn't how gambling works. Closer to 2016 than 2017 is my answer because I believe in regression to the mean. 2016 is much closer to his career average than 2017 and he is only 30 (in two months).

Regression to the mean implies a reliable true talent mean to regress to. If his shoulder is toast to the point he can’t throw with his old mechanics  (which is a real possibility), his true talent mean probably looks a lot different than his career averages.

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Beef Supreme Hangout Veteran Council

Beef Supreme

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4 minutes ago, cimota said:

Neither of those will show.   If he pitches as poorly as last season he won't make it to 93 innings.  Why not just ask people how they think he will do?

Because there are two sentiments that have dominated the board recently regarding Chris Tillman. The first is that he will return to form, pitching like he did in 2016, and be a great deal for the Orioles. The second is that he is toast. I simplified it: Tillman last year or Tillman two years ago. Choose heads or choose tails.

btw: you lost your $100.

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

Because there are two sentiments that have dominated the board recently regarding Chris Tillman. The first is that he will return to form, pitching like he did in 2016, and be a great deal for the Orioles. The second is that he is toast. I simplified it: Tillman last year or Tillman two years ago. Choose heads or choose tails.

btw: you lost your $100.

I would lose 100 dollars even if I had bet. Stupid scenario.  I predict he will be somewhere in between the -2.2 WAR he was last year and the 4.1 WAR he had in 2016.  There is quite a gap there.    I have no idea how he really will pitch but I would be happy with seasons like any of the 5 he pitched between 2012 and 2016.  If he pitches again like he did last year he will be out of baseball.   I hope he succeeds because like Buck I like our guys.

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