Even Money Wager on 2018 Tillman

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

On paper, in this division, I see Toronto, Boston, and New York all significantly better.   When you look at Toronto's rotation against ours, it's a no contest.  Of course, we'll have to see who stays healthy and who doesn't and the games aren't played on paper.    In my opinion, the Orioles start the season as the 4th best team, at best, in the division.

I like our lineup and bullpen better than Toronto’s.   They could turn out to be better than us, but I don’t think it’s clear.    Putting that aside, 90 losses is a lot and I don’t think it’s likely that our starting pitching will be as bad as last year’s.

[Redskins Rick]

16 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Hey!  I'll try to be optimistic but on paper, things don't look so good.  You need a lot of things, that shouldn't be expected, to go right, just to be an 85 win team.   On paper, I think this is a sub .500 team and if a few things go wrong it could be a lot worse.   You have a rotation that consists of an ace who completed his first full season last year and was really mediocre on normal rest and was basically shut down at the end of the season when he wore down.   Gausman is probably the best bet to both pitch 180-200 innings and be decent.   The peripherals on Cashman suggest a big regression from what he did last season.   Tillman was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year and the only excuse from the team is that he didn't have his normal offseason routine.   Meanwhile, he pitched into August and showed no signs of improvement.    The #5 spot is up for grabs between a bunch of rule 5 guys and minor league guys who have proven to be medicore on the minor league level or awful at the ML level.   We have basically no depth in the minors if things do go wrong.  Hess, Wright are not realistic options that a good team would be counting on.   Mesa pitched a partial season in AA last year.  Cortes has never been a full time starter in the minors.   Sure, some of these guys could be huge surprises.  Anything is possible.   An objective person (aka Debbie Downer) would say that things don't look very good.

You could say on paper, every season doesn't look that good.

Heck some say the 83 WS team is one of the weakest WS teams to ever win one, not my opinion, but its been said.

I think you are a bit harsh on Bundy, and I think he will be fine, and do better than Gausman. Keep in mind, Gausman has been a full-time SP, younger.

Bundy had a 2.7 WAR, which meant he was almost 3 times better than a replacement player, and he threw 19 Quality Starts out of 28 starts. Not too bad, IMO for a youngster.

Tillman was awful last season, and he was pretty good several seasons before that. Buck has already said, Tilly looks better now, than at any point, last season. Is he blowing smoke? I hope now.

Cashner was ranked #5 best FA SP available by MLBTR, is he an ACE, no, is he the big 3, no, but I suspect he will notch 175+ innings and be better than Miley, Ubaldo or company. IMO

Knock the rule 5 guys all you want, but if you look at the paper results of Cortes, you will find a pretty sharp LHP that has shown the ability to get Ks at every level. At the back end of this rotation, if the other guys are doing well, he should be just fine, and dont forget Castro.

I am not even sure Hess and Wright make the 25 man roster.

Glass is either half empty or half full.

ST starts today, so my glass is half full.

GO Os!

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

You could say on paper, every season doesn't look that good.

Heck some say the 83 WS team is one of the weakest WS teams to ever win one, not my opinion, but its been said.

I have never heard that, and it would be a preposterous claim.   The team won 98 regular season games and had been a perennial 90+ wIn team.  

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Frobby said:

I have never heard that, and it would be a preposterous claim.   The team won 98 regular season games and had been a perennial 90+ wIn team.  

I dont remember the exact content on why it was the weakest, maybe it was the weakest Oriole WS winner,  it was a discussion we was having here in OH, one day, back a few years ago.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have never heard that, and it would be a preposterous claim.   The team won 98 regular season games and had been a perennial 90+ wIn team.  

2006 Cardinals (83 wins), 1987 Twins (85 wins) and 2000 Yankees (87 wins) are three teams I can name off the top of my head that were weaker than the 1983 Orioles.  I'm sure there are plenty more if you do the research.  

[atomic]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have never heard that, and it would be a preposterous claim.   The team won 98 regular season games and had been a perennial 90+ wIn team.  

The 1982 team had the second best record in baseball only behind the best by 1 game.  So it seems unlikely that the 1983 team was just lucky.  

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

2006 Cardinals (83 wins), 1987 Twins (85 wins) and 2000 Yankees (87 wins) are three teams I can name off the top of my head that were weaker than the 1983 Orioles.  I'm sure there are plenty more if you do the research.  

2014 Giants were an 88 wIn team.  

[OFFNY]

On 2/23/2018 at 12:45 PM, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

The 2006 Cardinals (83 wins), the 1987 Twins (85 wins) and the 2000 Yankees (87 wins) are three teams I can name off the top of my head that were weaker than the 1983 Orioles.  I'm sure there are plenty more if you do the research.  

 

o

 

The 2000 Yankees' 87-74 record (with one rainout) is somewhat deceptive.

They lost 15 out of their final 18 games, but they had a 9-game lead in the division at the beginning of that slide. Their lead never went below 4 and-a-half games when they clinched the title a week before the season ended on September 26th. They then continued to lose every game for the rest of the regular season before winning all 3 of their playoff series against the Athletics, the Mariners, and the Mets.

 

They won both of the previous World Series in 1998 and 1999, and eventually went on to win it all in 2000, so it is very likely that they were coasting during that 3-15 stretch that ended their season because they had the division title all but wrapped up.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2000-schedule-scores.shtml

 

o

[Beef Supreme]

Clemens should have been ejected for throwing the shard of bat at Piazza and suspended for multiple games beyond that. Whether that might have changed the outcome of the series is speculation.

[foxfield]

The optimist in me says that Tillman is  closer to '16 than '17.  The pessimist is easy to defeat in February...  Of course I am still fighting sarcasm war.....

But I'd bet that Tillman comes closer to earning his salary in '18 than he did in '17.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, foxfield said:

The optimist in me says that Tillman is  closer to '16 than '17.  The pessimist is easy to defeat in February...  Of course I am still fighting sarcasm war.....

But I'd bet that Tillman comes closer to earning his salary in '18 than he did in '17.

His salary is a lot lower in '18. 

[foxfield]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

His salary is a lot lower in '18. 

Yeah, not going far out on the limb on that one...

[Beef Supreme]

Anybody want to change their vote?

[jamalshw]

I didn't see this before, but was in the bounce back group when he was signed. I thought he'd be a 4.20-4.50 ERA pitcher this year so would've taken the 2016 numbers as that's closer to my expectation than 2017. Now, I'd probably take the other side. It, of course, is not just based on yesterday, but also how he looked this Spring.