Duquette Suggests Rebuild Could Be Possible After This Year

[esmd]

And my post above assumes they don't trade any of the pending FAs at the deadline.  If they do, you'll probably have at least a few prospects to plug into roles for 2019.

[UpstateNYfan]

Not too many years ago, the Red Sox were suppose to run away with the Division....why should the other teams even bother showing up? IIRC, the Sox barely ended up out of last place. Francona got fired,etc. Baseball is a funny game...a few guys play above the expected, a few guys plays below the expected can turn a season around. Things happen, the worse teams win 1 in 3, the best teams lose about 2 in 5. It all comes down to the last 4/15, who knows?? That's why they play. The optimists can pretend, the pessimists can whine. That's the fun and pain of a 162 game schedule, it comes down to that 4/15 of the year. Play and pray!!

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, UpstateNYfan said:

Not too many years ago, the Red Sox were suppose to run away with the Division....why should the other teams even bother showing up? IIRC, the Sox barely ended up out of last place. Francona got fired,etc. 

Not what happened.   The year Francona got fired was 2011, the year they missed the playoffs on the final day after losing to the Orioles.   They won 90 games that year, and though they were a good team, I don’t think anybody expected them to run away with anything before that season started.  

The Sox broke up that team, hired Bobby Valentine to replace Francona and finished dead last (not “barely...out of last”) in 2012.   Nobody was expecting them to be a great team that year, though I think few expected them to win 69 games.

[mdbdotcom]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Givens has value.

O'Day has limited no trade protection already (seven teams).

Forgot about Givens.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The market fluctuates, and the innate value of the player doesn’t always drive the return a team gets for that player.    Bedard is actually a great example.     He happened to be made available in a year when the FA market for starting pitchers stunk and there were a lot of teams thinking that one more good starter might put them into the playoffs or over the top.    If a player with the exact same credentials had been offered on the trade market this offseason, I can pretty much guarantee you he wouldn’t have attracted the same quality return that Bedard did ten years ago.

That said, there’s a talent for timing the market.   Cashman did a great job of that in 2016 when he traded Chapman, Miller and others.   There was an arms race on for relievers among a few elite clubs, and Cashman saw the opportunity and jumped.    DD doesn’t seem to have much sense of that.   

I think the wrinkle here is that we have no intention of resigning these players. In particular Machado, Brach, Jones and Britton. And with Schoop I think we offer him an extension and if he declines we add him to that list. If you look at a team like the Royals I think they held onto Hosmer and Moustakas because they thought they might have a chance to resign them. 

I'm all for fielding a team that's in contention each year, but not when it's this much of a long shot and will ultimately set the franchise back years. 

 

[Moose Milligan]

15 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

I guess he plans on being back after this year. Crap. I wanted him gone and Buck gone after this year. 

Say what you want about DD, but he's a professional guy.  While he knows he's into his last year as GM, I think he's still going to perform to the best interests of the club until the end.  

 

1 hour ago, Todd-O said:

This has got to be the most depressing fan forum - ever.  The O's just went through an incredible renaissance... they've led the AL in total wins for what, the last 5 or 6 years?  We've had an opportunity to watch legit stars.  

They were a few short games from getting to the WS in 2014 - and that's without Davis, Machado, and Wieters.  Everything aligned to that point. It didn't happen.

What's with the constant trashing and total disregard for the franchise?

It's pitiful.

Enjoy it, for the love all that's good. 

Every year it's the same thing:  we're going to suck.  We have nothing.  Our team is run by a ship of fools.... 

Why not sit back and enjoy the ride?  Let these guys play the game.  They might very well have a great ride in them this year.  Good grief.

 

 

No, depressing was finishing in last place last year.  That renaissance....is over.  2014 might as well be an eternity ago.  Sure feels like it.

As far as trashing and disregard for the franchise, it's very simple.  The Orioles, in spite of themselves, were able to put together a nice run for a few years and don't have enough horses coming up through the minors to keep competing at a high level.  They're pissing all over themselves when it comes to Machado, now there's a chance he walks at the end of the year and all we get is a comp pick when we could have gotten a good haul of prospects to augment a rebuild.  This team does diddly poo when it comes to international free agents and signings.  

So, the team is owned and run by a ship of fools.  There's no denying that.  

[Roll Tide]

15 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

We've seen this strategy coming for so long.  So long.  And yet in this final year of the window, the Orioles don't look like contenders on paper as currently constructed.

And they will have nothing left of value to trade to excelerate the rebuild

[atomic]

1 hour ago, UpstateNYfan said:

Not too many years ago, the Red Sox were suppose to run away with the Division....why should the other teams even bother showing up? IIRC, the Sox barely ended up out of last place. Francona got fired,etc. Baseball is a funny game...a few guys play above the expected, a few guys plays below the expected can turn a season around. Things happen, the worse teams win 1 in 3, the best teams lose about 2 in 5. It all comes down to the last 4/15, who knows?? That's why they play. The optimists can pretend, the pessimists can whine. That's the fun and pain of a 162 game schedule, it comes down to that 4/15 of the year. Play and pray!!

The best of plans destroyed by Beer and Fried Chicken.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Todd-O said:

This has got to be the most depressing fan forum - ever.  The O's just went through an incredible renaissance... they've led the AL in total wins for what, the last 5 or 6 years?  We've had an opportunity to watch legit stars.  

They were a few short games from getting to the WS in 2014 - and that's without Davis, Machado, and Wieters.  Everything aligned to that point. It didn't happen.

What's with the constant trashing and total disregard for the franchise?

It's pitiful.

Enjoy it, for the love all that's good. 

Every year it's the same thing:  we're going to suck.  We have nothing.  Our team is run by a ship of fools.... 

Why not sit back and enjoy the ride?  Let these guys play the game.  They might very well have a great ride in them this year.  Good grief.

 

 

I think you missed the memo.  Enjoying baseball is wrong if the team isn't doing things according to your plan*. The appropriate way to enjoy a team that isn't making the correct moves is to constantly remind them they're stupid on the internet. 

* Really there's only one approved plan.  It's the one where you figure out if you're a 95 win team.  If so, yeah!  If not, sell off everything and build for 2023.  In the interim you can either watch other sports, go fishing, or build your street cred by laughing/crying over the AAA players we're passing off as major leaguers during the rebuild.  Yankee fans still commiserate over the unthinkable pain of the, like, two Alvaro Espinoza years in the early 90s.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think you missed the memo.  Enjoying baseball is wrong if the team isn't doing things according to your plan*. The appropriate way to enjoy a team that isn't making the correct moves is to constantly remind them they're stupid on the internet.

Nice post.

[theocean]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Not really. Good (smart) teams trade big name players before they become free agents. It's how the game is played. And receiving multiple high level prospects, who have proven themselves at the minor league level is certainly better than receiving one who has not. The best / most recent example are the White Sox. 

Let's actually break this down. Let's take a look at the "cores" of the last few World Series teams, I'll list the top 10 players in WAR on each team in order. I'm looking at World Series teams here because it seems like the general consensus of this thread is that everyone would like to see a team that could win it all.

2017 Astros

I wrote about the Astros in another post, but their core was drafted or international signings: Altuve (international signing), Correa (Drafted), Springer (Drafted), Reddick (Free Agent), Marwin Gonzalez (Traded for Marco Duarte, International Signing from Mexico), Bregman (Drafted), Keuchel (Drafted), Peacock (Trade, acquired for Jed Lowrie), Gurriel (International Signing), Verlander (Traded for 3 Astros Drafted Players).

In the Astros' case, the only "prospect" type players that were acquired through trade were Marwin Gonzalez and Brad Peacock. The Big Boys were all drafted or were international signings. In the case of Verlander - and McCann and Gattis - they were all acquired for players that the Astros drafted.

2017 Dodgers

Now, the Dodgers. Turner (Free Agent), Seager (Drafted), Kershaw (Drafted), Taylor (Trade, acquired for Zach Lee, who Dodgers drafted), Bellinger (Drafted), Puig (International Signing), Jansen (International Signing), Wood (Trade, crazy big three team trade, Dodgers giving up prospects for Latos, Arroyo, and others), Barnes (Trade, acquired for Dee Gordon), Hill (Free Agent.)

In the Dodgers' case, again, lots of drafted players and international signings. Austin Barnes was the only player acquired from a trade in which the Dodgers traded a veteran for prospects (Dee Gordon). Alex Wood was acquired in a trade where the Dodgers gave up prospects.

2016 Cubs

Bryant (Drafted), Rizzo (Trade, for Andrew Cashner), Lester (Free Agent),  Hendricks (Trade, acquired for Ryan Dempster), Russell (Trade, acquired for Hammel and Samardzija), Fowler (Trade, acquired for Dan Straily and Luis Valbuena), Arrieta (Trade for Scott Feldman), Zobrist (Free Agent), Baez (Drafted), Lackey (Free Agent).

Theo did a good job of trading here. Rizzo for Andrew Cashner, Arrieta for Scott Feldman, Hendricks for Ryan Dempster - all highway robbery. The 2016 Cubs are definitely a case where trading players away for prospects is super helpful in rebuilding a team. Bryant and Baez were the only drafted players.

2016 Indians

Kluber (Trade, for Jake Westbrook), Lindor (Drafted), Kipnis (Drafted), Ramirez (International Signing), Carrasco (Trade, for Cliff Lee), Santana (Trade for Casey Blake), Bauer (Trade, for Shin-Soo Choo), Salazar (International Signing), Otero (Waivers), Allen (Drafted).

Again, a good bit of trades here - Kluber, Carrasco, Santana, Bauer all acquired by trading veterans. The other half - Lindor, Kipnis, Ramirez, Salazar, Allen - were all international signings or drafted.

2015 Royals

Cain (Trade, for Grienke), Moustakas (Drafted), Hosmer (Drafted), Davis (Trade, for Will Myers, Odorizzi), Gordon (Drafted), Young (Free Agent), Morales (Free Agent), Volquez (Free Agent), Perez (International Signing), Ventura (International Signing).

For the Royals - only Lorenzo Cain came back in a trade that shipped out a star veteran. Davis came in the James Shields trade, who wasn't even around for their World Series win.

2015 Mets

Grandson (Free Agent), deGrom (Drafted), Harvey (Drafted), Duda (Drafted), Familia (International Signing), Syndergaard (Trade, for RA Dickey), Cespedes (Trade, for Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa), Conforto (Drafted), d'Arnaud (Trade, for RA Dickey), Murphy (Drafted).

The Mets were overwhelmingly drafted and home grown - with the exception of Syndergaard and d'Arnaud coming back for RA Dickey. Cespedes was acquired for a prospect in Fulmer - and Grandson was a free agent.

2014 Orioles

Just for a comparison, the 2014 Orioles, when the O's had their best chance.

Pearce (Free Agent), Jones (Traded for Bedard), Cruz (Free Agent), Hardy (Free Agent), Tillman (Traded for Bedard), Britton (Drafted), Machado (Drafted), O'Day (Waivers), Gonzalez (International Signing), Markakis (Drafted).

In Summary

There's no one way to do it. Ultimately, it is a team game - and a team needs to have their studs coming into their primes at the same time. 

The Astros, Dodgers, Mets, and Royals were all drafted for the most part. The Indians and Cubs were built through trades. 

Generally, it seems that most of the teams traded a veteran pitcher at some point for a player who later contributed big for the franchise. Unfortunately, the O's don't have any of those. They have a SS/3B at a time when the game is flooded with amazing SS/3B.

Sure, the White Sox look good right now - but they haven't won anything. The White Sox haven't had a winning season since 2012 - and I don't see them putting it together this year either.

I feel like the Padres and Rays are always in a constant state of rebuilding with great prospects but never put it together.

The Orioles have a good core right now. Sure, they are gone next year, but they are here now. And they certainly can compete. I'd consider myself a fairly pessimistic fan and even I can see that they have enough talent to compete in 2018.

Think about this metaphor. It's the summer between the end of high school and going away from college. You have a fun boyfriend or girlfriend that you really like who is going to be moving to a different city than you for college. You know you have to breakup at some point. Do you break up with them right away so you can start looking for a new long-term boyfriend or girlfriend? Or do you enjoy the summer with them and start looking for a new one in the fall when college starts? I think I'd just enjoy the summer.

 

 

[nadecir]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

The market fluctuates, and the innate value of the player doesn’t always drive the return a team gets for that player.    Bedard is actually a great example.     He happened to be made available in a year when the FA market for starting pitchers stunk and there were a lot of teams thinking that one more good starter might put them into the playoffs or over the top.    If a player with the exact same credentials had been offered on the trade market this offseason, I can pretty much guarantee you he wouldn’t have attracted the same quality return that Bedard did ten years ago.

That said, there’s a talent for timing the market.   Cashman did a great job of that in 2016 when he traded Chapman, Miller and others.   There was an arms race on for relievers among a few elite clubs, and Cashman saw the opportunity and jumped.    DD doesn’t seem to have much sense of that.   

The market fluctuates for sure, but we are in a much different era in baseball than we've ever been in.  Emotion in valuing players is out; analytics is in.  Take a look at what happened this year in free agency.  Further evidence take a look at what the Orioles were offered for Manny Machado in trade. 

Cost controlled players are valued higher than ever before.  I doubt anything resembling the Bedard trade is likely to happen in the new era of baseball analytics driving front office decision-making.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, nadecir said:

The market fluctuates for sure, but we are in a much different era in baseball than we've ever been in.  Emotion in valuing players is out; analytics is in.  Take a look at what happened this year in free agency.  Further evidence take a look at what the Orioles were offered for Manny Machado in trade. 

Cost controlled players are valued higher than ever before.  I doubt anything resembling the Bedard trade is likely to happen in the new era of baseball analytics driving front office decision-making.

When did the new era begin?

Because boy did the Diamondbacks overpay for Shelby Miller (Dec 2015).

[nadecir]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

When did the new era begin?

Because boy did the Diamondbacks overpay for Shelby Miller (Dec 2015).

I'd say the new era began for sure after the Chris Davis contract renewal  in January 2016.  ;-)

[theocean]

2 minutes ago, nadecir said:

The market fluctuates for sure, but we are in a much different era in baseball than we've ever been in.  Emotion in valuing players is out; analytics is in.  Take a look at what happened this year in free agency.  Further evidence take a look at what the Orioles were offered for Manny Machado in trade. 

Cost controlled players are valued higher than ever before.  I doubt anything resembling the Bedard trade is likely to happen in the new era of baseball analytics driving front office decision-making.

Exactly. Also - I'm not sure where the O's would get a top prospect for Machado right now. Take a look at the Top 25 Prospects from MLB.com:

MLB.com's rankings:
1. Shohei Ohtani, Angels - Not going anywhere
2. Ronald Acuna, Braves - Rebuilding
3. Vlad Guerrero Jr, Blue Jays - Sort of rebuilding, have Donaldson and Tulo
4. Eloy Jimenez, White Sox - Rebuilding
5. Gleyber Torres, Yankees - Makes sense
6. Victor Robles, Nationals - Loaded already, have Rendon and Turner
7. Nick Senzel, Reds - Rebuilding
8. Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres - Rebuilding
9. Forrest Whitley, Astros - Suspended, have Bregman and Correa anyway
10. Michael Kopech, White Sox - Rebuilding
11. Francisco Mejia, Indians - Possibly a match here, but have Ramirez and Lindor
12. Walker Buehler, Dodgers - Maybe, but have Turner and Seager
13. Bo Bichette, Blue Jays - Sort of rebuilding, have Donaldson and Tulo
14. Brendan Rodgers, Rockies - Maybe, if they're in the playoff hunt
15. Mitch Keller, Pirates - Rebuilding
16. Kyle Tucker, Astros - Maybe, but have Bregman and Correa
17. Alex Reyes, Cardinals - Maybe, if they’re in it at the deadline
18. Brent Honeywell, Rays - Rebuilding
19. Mackenzie Gore, Padres - Rebuilding
20. Royce Lewis, Twins - Maybe, if they’re in it at the deadline
21. Hunter Greene, Reds - Rebuilding
22. Willy Adames, Rays - Rebuilding
23 Austin Hays, Orioles - Already an Bird
24. Triston McKenzie, Reds - Rebuilding
25. Brendan McKay, Rays - Rebuilding

The Yankees make sense. But why would Cashman offer up his best prospect when there is no other real competition for Machado's services. The Indians could maybe be a match - but I don't think we'd all be super excited about getting Francisco Mejia when the O's have Sisco. The Dodgers - maybe if they move Justin Turner to the outfield? They probably would just trade for an outfielder.

The O's could maybe make a trade with the Twins or Cardinals or Rockies if they are in the playoff mix. But, right now, on March 6th - the Yankees seem like the only team with a need for Machado. And if you only have one team with a real need, how do you expect the O's to get what they want for Machado?