Duquette Suggests Rebuild Could Be Possible After This Year

[Just Regular]

6 minutes ago, nadecir said:

The market fluctuates for sure, but we are in a much different era in baseball than we've ever been in.  Emotion in valuing players is out; analytics is in.  Take a look at what happened this year in free agency.  Further evidence take a look at what the Orioles were offered for Manny Machado in trade. 

Cost controlled players are valued higher than ever before.  I doubt anything resembling the Bedard trade is likely to happen in the new era of baseball analytics driving front office decision-making.

I think it is behind a paywall, but I heard Justin Upton opened up a lot to The Athletic about his free agency, and how teams don't court players anymore.  It's more about here are your flaws and this is what our offer is.  

Buck has been a players guy.  If we flash enough pitching talent this year to give Machado a sense he wouldn't be wasting his prime in a hopeless run prevention situation, and there's a shot at a 15-year run of relevance in Baltimore, maybe we can soft sell some effectively to stay in the mix.

[theocean]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

When did the new era begin?

Because boy did the Diamondbacks overpay for Shelby Miller (Dec 2015).

There is a reason Dave Stewart was fired.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, nadecir said:

I'd say the new era began for sure after the Chris Davis contract renewal  in January 2016.  ;-)

Somebody needs to tell the Padres.

[Just Regular]

1 minute ago, theocean said:

 

The O's could maybe make a trade with the Twins or Cardinals or Rockies if they are in the playoff mix. But, right now, on March 6th - the Yankees seem like the only team with a need for Machado. And if you only have one team with a real need, how do you expect the O's to get what they want for Machado?

 

I'm ready to compete the first half, but if it goes bad:

The Indians will be a fit all summer long.  It is Miller and Allen's last ride, and Ramirez's positional flexibility means Machado could effectively replace any of 2B Kipnis, LF Brantley or RF Chisenhall, and one of those 3 positions will likely end up not great.

So will Yankees.  I've heard Drury focusing on 3B.

If we want a robust Machado market in July, the Braves are a dark horse team to hope does well ahead of schedule.  They are waiting on Riley, and have a ton of pitching.  Machado in Atlanta in 2018 would probably be like CC Sabathia in Milwaukee.  Anthopoulos could be a very active trader once he gets his arms around everything.

All three of these teams would need Manny back at 3B though.

[Beef Supreme]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think the wrinkle here is that we have no intention of resigning these players. In particular Machado, Brach, Jones and Britton. And with Schoop I think we offer him an extension and if he declines we add him to that list. If you look at a team like the Royals I think they held onto Hosmer and Moustakas because they thought they might have a chance to resign them. 

 

And they have not re-signed Moustakas because...?

[foxfield]

41 minutes ago, theocean said:

Let's actually break this down. Let's take a look at the "cores" of the last few World Series teams, I'll list the top 10 players in WAR on each team in order. I'm looking at World Series teams here because it seems like the general consensus of this thread is that everyone would like to see a team that could win it all.

2017 Astros

I wrote about the Astros in another post, but their core was drafted or international signings: Altuve (international signing), Correa (Drafted), Springer (Drafted), Reddick (Free Agent), Marwin Gonzalez (Traded for Marco Duarte, International Signing from Mexico), Bregman (Drafted), Keuchel (Drafted), Peacock (Trade, acquired for Jed Lowrie), Gurriel (International Signing), Verlander (Traded for 3 Astros Drafted Players).

In the Astros' case, the only "prospect" type players that were acquired through trade were Marwin Gonzalez and Brad Peacock. The Big Boys were all drafted or were international signings. In the case of Verlander - and McCann and Gattis - they were all acquired for players that the Astros drafted.

2017 Dodgers

Now, the Dodgers. Turner (Free Agent), Seager (Drafted), Kershaw (Drafted), Taylor (Trade, acquired for Zach Lee, who Dodgers drafted), Bellinger (Drafted), Puig (International Signing), Jansen (International Signing), Wood (Trade, crazy big three team trade, Dodgers giving up prospects for Latos, Arroyo, and others), Barnes (Trade, acquired for Dee Gordon), Hill (Free Agent.)

In the Dodgers' case, again, lots of drafted players and international signings. Austin Barnes was the only player acquired from a trade in which the Dodgers traded a veteran for prospects (Dee Gordon). Alex Wood was acquired in a trade where the Dodgers gave up prospects.

2016 Cubs

Bryant (Drafted), Rizzo (Trade, for Andrew Cashner), Lester (Free Agent),  Hendricks (Trade, acquired for Ryan Dempster), Russell (Trade, acquired for Hammel and Samardzija), Fowler (Trade, acquired for Dan Straily and Luis Valbuena), Arrieta (Trade for Scott Feldman), Zobrist (Free Agent), Baez (Drafted), Lackey (Free Agent).

Theo did a good job of trading here. Rizzo for Andrew Cashner, Arrieta for Scott Feldman, Hendricks for Ryan Dempster - all highway robbery. The 2016 Cubs are definitely a case where trading players away for prospects is super helpful in rebuilding a team. Bryant and Baez were the only drafted players.

2016 Indians

Kluber (Trade, for Jake Westbrook), Lindor (Drafted), Kipnis (Drafted), Ramirez (International Signing), Carrasco (Trade, for Cliff Lee), Santana (Trade for Casey Blake), Bauer (Trade, for Shin-Soo Choo), Salazar (International Signing), Otero (Waivers), Allen (Drafted).

Again, a good bit of trades here - Kluber, Carrasco, Santana, Bauer all acquired by trading veterans. The other half - Lindor, Kipnis, Ramirez, Salazar, Allen - were all international signings or drafted.

2015 Royals

Cain (Trade, for Grienke), Moustakas (Drafted), Hosmer (Drafted), Davis (Trade, for Will Myers, Odorizzi), Gordon (Drafted), Young (Free Agent), Morales (Free Agent), Volquez (Free Agent), Perez (International Signing), Ventura (International Signing).

For the Royals - only Lorenzo Cain came back in a trade that shipped out a star veteran. Davis came in the James Shields trade, who wasn't even around for their World Series win.

2015 Mets

Grandson (Free Agent), deGrom (Drafted), Harvey (Drafted), Duda (Drafted), Familia (International Signing), Syndergaard (Trade, for RA Dickey), Cespedes (Trade, for Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa), Conforto (Drafted), d'Arnaud (Trade, for RA Dickey), Murphy (Drafted).

The Mets were overwhelmingly drafted and home grown - with the exception of Syndergaard and d'Arnaud coming back for RA Dickey. Cespedes was acquired for a prospect in Fulmer - and Grandson was a free agent.

2014 Orioles

Just for a comparison, the 2014 Orioles, when the O's had their best chance.

Pearce (Free Agent), Jones (Traded for Bedard), Cruz (Free Agent), Hardy (Free Agent), Tillman (Traded for Bedard), Britton (Drafted), Machado (Drafted), O'Day (Waivers), Gonzalez (International Signing), Markakis (Drafted).

In Summary

There's no one way to do it. Ultimately, it is a team game - and a team needs to have their studs coming into their primes at the same time. 

The Astros, Dodgers, Mets, and Royals were all drafted for the most part. The Indians and Cubs were built through trades. 

Generally, it seems that most of the teams traded a veteran pitcher at some point for a player who later contributed big for the franchise. Unfortunately, the O's don't have any of those. They have a SS/3B at a time when the game is flooded with amazing SS/3B.

Sure, the White Sox look good right now - but they haven't won anything. The White Sox haven't had a winning season since 2012 - and I don't see them putting it together this year either.

I feel like the Padres and Rays are always in a constant state of rebuilding with great prospects but never put it together.

The Orioles have a good core right now. Sure, they are gone next year, but they are here now. And they certainly can compete. I'd consider myself a fairly pessimistic fan and even I can see that they have enough talent to compete in 2018.

Think about this metaphor. It's the summer between the end of high school and going away from college. You have a fun boyfriend or girlfriend that you really like who is going to be moving to a different city than you for college. You know you have to breakup at some point. Do you break up with them right away so you can start looking for a new long-term boyfriend or girlfriend? Or do you enjoy the summer with them and start looking for a new one in the fall when college starts? I think I'd just enjoy the summer.

 

 

I consider myself pretty optimistic although I have become much more critical of the current status quo...but yes, anyone being honest should see there is enough talent to compete.  It could be the classic why not of yore....

 

Still chuckling a little over the summer metaphor...but it fits.

[theocean]

1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

I'm ready to compete the first half, but if it goes bad:

The Indians will be a fit all summer long.  It is Miller and Allen's last ride, and Ramirez's positional flexibility means Machado could effectively replace any of 2B Kipnis, LF Brantley or RF Chisenhall, and one of those 3 positions will likely end up not great.

So will Yankees.  I've heard Drury focusing on 3B.

If we want a robust Machado market in July, the Braves are a dark horse team to hope does well ahead of schedule.  They are waiting on Riley, and have a ton of pitching.  Machado in Atlanta in 2018 would probably be like CC Sabathia in Milwaukee.  Anthopoulos could be a very active trader once he gets his arms around everything.

All three of these teams would need Manny back at 3B though.

I agree with you - I think the Machado market gets much better at the deadline. There's no urgency right now for anyone to make a trade that will get the Orioles excited.

[nadecir]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Somebody needs to tell the Padres.

This is the best description of what the Padres may be thinking with Eric Hosmer.
=====

The expenditure—the largest contract handed out in franchise history—doesn’t vault the Padres into the ranks of the NL’s best, given how many holes still litter their roster, and Hosmer is perhaps this winter’s most polarizing player. So why has San Diego broken its long offseason slumber, especially with the team nowhere near contention, to lavish record money on Hosmer?

It helps that, to a certain degree, Hosmer is a bargain. Plenty of people will look at a $144 million guarantee and laugh at the idea of that much money being anything but a wild overpay. But by frontloading money and giving Hosmer an opt-out after the 2022 season, the Padres have made the numbers work in their favor. In the first five years of his deal, Hosmer will be paid $21 million annually; the last three are worth roughly $13 million a piece. In other words, the Padres have Hosmer first on a five-year, $106 million contract—a pact that neither breaks the bank nor is particularly risky or crazy. Then, he either leaves or accepts a three-year, $39 million deal to stay—again, not a financial outlay that will bankrupt a Padres team with barely any long-term commitments on the books.

Hosmer’s youth is another point in the Padres’ favor. This isn’t your typical big free-agent contract, handed out to a player on the wrong side of 30; Hosmer is just 28 years old and won’t turn 29 until late October. He’ll be 33 when he reaches his opt-out, and even if he chooses not to take it, a first baseman in his mid-30s making $13 million a year is neither extravagant nor deleterious to a team’s hopes.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/18/eric-hosmer-padres-free-agent-contract-future

[DrungoHazewood]

23 minutes ago, nadecir said:

This is the best description of what the Padres may be thinking with Eric Hosmer.
=====

The expenditure—the largest contract handed out in franchise history—doesn’t vault the Padres into the ranks of the NL’s best, given how many holes still litter their roster, and Hosmer is perhaps this winter’s most polarizing player. So why has San Diego broken its long offseason slumber, especially with the team nowhere near contention, to lavish record money on Hosmer?

It helps that, to a certain degree, Hosmer is a bargain. Plenty of people will look at a $144 million guarantee and laugh at the idea of that much money being anything but a wild overpay. But by frontloading money and giving Hosmer an opt-out after the 2022 season, the Padres have made the numbers work in their favor. In the first five years of his deal, Hosmer will be paid $21 million annually; the last three are worth roughly $13 million a piece. In other words, the Padres have Hosmer first on a five-year, $106 million contract—a pact that neither breaks the bank nor is particularly risky or crazy. Then, he either leaves or accepts a three-year, $39 million deal to stay—again, not a financial outlay that will bankrupt a Padres team with barely any long-term commitments on the books.

Hosmer’s youth is another point in the Padres’ favor. This isn’t your typical big free-agent contract, handed out to a player on the wrong side of 30; Hosmer is just 28 years old and won’t turn 29 until late October. He’ll be 33 when he reaches his opt-out, and even if he chooses not to take it, a first baseman in his mid-30s making $13 million a year is neither extravagant nor deleterious to a team’s hopes.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/18/eric-hosmer-padres-free-agent-contract-future

That glosses over the fact that in four of his seven years in the majors he's been about as valuable as Luis Matos.

[Beef Supreme]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

That said, there’s a talent for timing the market.   Cashman did a great job of that in 2016 when he traded Chapman, Miller and others.   There was an arms race on for relievers among a few elite clubs, and Cashman saw the opportunity and jumped.    DD doesn’t seem to have much sense of that. 

In July 2016, the Orioles were pursuing the playoffs while the Yankees had already given up on the season (though they played well subsequently despite having thrown in the towel for the year). Dook was not about to trade relievers that season, so it can't be said that lacks timing because he missed that year's market. There was nothing so brilliant about Cashman trading relievers for prospects, especially considering that multiple teams were trying to top each other with the best prospect packages.

In July, 2017, Dook didn't receive prospect-studded offers like what Cleveland and the Cubs gifted MFY. HIs situation was much different from Cashman's in that Dook's stud reliever had been injured while Cashman's were deemed healthy. So he chose not to take packages of less attractive prospects than the MFY had received the year prior. I don't think it has anything to do with Dook failing to have a "sense" for "timing the market." During the season that he had the opportunity to trade relievers, the offers failed to convince him that a trade was worthwhile, in his estimation. How could any GM time when multiple contending teams will be battling to out-do each other in the trade market?

Cashman was fortunate; his 2016 trades after deciding to punt the season demonstrated no talent that the other GMs don't also have. Nor does Dook's decision not to trade Britton last year prove he lacks the "talent for timing the market."

[Aglets]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That glosses over the fact that in four of his seven years in the majors he's been about as valuable as Luis Matos.

What do you have against Luis Matos?

Are you by chance referring to Luis Matos's 4 WAR season in 2003?  

[LookitsPuck]

This is beyond parody at this point.

The Orioles (as constructed) for 2018 aren't a contending team. And after 2018 you lose guys like Machado (who is only 25, btw) and are going to get jack squat in return for him (comparatively) when he walks. It's irresponsible to hold onto him for 2018 while parading out this soon to be average at best team this year.

There is no plan going into 2019 and beyond.

[LookitsPuck]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

The market fluctuates, and the innate value of the player doesn’t always drive the return a team gets for that player.    Bedard is actually a great example.     He happened to be made available in a year when the FA market for starting pitchers stunk and there were a lot of teams thinking that one more good starter might put them into the playoffs or over the top.    If a player with the exact same credentials had been offered on the trade market this offseason, I can pretty much guarantee you he wouldn’t have attracted the same quality return that Bedard did ten years ago.

That said, there’s a talent for timing the market.   Cashman did a great job of that in 2016 when he traded Chapman, Miller and others.   There was an arms race on for relievers among a few elite clubs, and Cashman saw the opportunity and jumped.    DD doesn’t seem to have much sense of that.   

The problem is Duquette whiffed every.single.year w/ Machado re: an extension. 

So he screws the pooch on Machado to an extension. Machado will turn 26 in *July*. He's going to walk as a franchise type player at age 26 with nary a serious extension offer made to him. I don't know if it's because of the knee surgeries or what...but it always felt the Orioles would never handle him seriously.

So he's going to walk and the O's are going to get some jacked draft picks. Relative to Machado's future value as an about to be in his prime SS...come on. It's disgraceful that this has come to this. All because Duquette is half-assing a 2018 "all-in". 

It's absurd.

[Hank Scorpio]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

The problem is Duquette whiffed every.single.year w/ Machado re: an extension. 

So he screws the pooch on Machado to an extension. Machado will turn 26 in *July*. He's going to walk as a franchise type player at age 26 with nary a serious extension offer made to him. I don't know if it's because of the knee surgeries or what...but it always felt the Orioles would never handle him seriously.

So he's going to walk and the O's are going to get some jacked draft picks. Relative to Machado's future value as an about to be in his prime SS...come on. It's disgraceful that this has come to this. All because Duquette is half-assing a 2018 "all-in". 

It's absurd.

The term "all in" is not universal, unfortunately.

[clapdiddy]

6 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

The term "all in" is not universal, unfortunately.

Yeah, unfortunately, the problems with the plans for this team ultimately fall on one person...and we know who it is.