Duquette Suggests Rebuild Could Be Possible After This Year

[Aglets]

Baltimore Orioles Guide to Going "all in" after a Last Place Finish (a Peter Angelos tale)

 

1.  Add as many pitchers as possible from the Rule 5 draft

2. Sign Andrew Cashner and Colby Rasmus

3. Slash payroll by ~ $30-35M

4.  Profit!!!!

 

 

[25 Nuggets]

5 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Baltimore Orioles Guide to Going "all in" after a Last Place Finish (a Peter Angelos tale)

 

1.  Add as many pitchers as possible from the Rule 5 draft

2. Sign Andrew Cashner and Colby Rasmus

3. Slash payroll by ~ $30-35M

4.  Profit!!!!

 

 

[foxfield]

20 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

The problem is Duquette whiffed every.single.year w/ Machado re: an extension. 

So he screws the pooch on Machado to an extension. Machado will turn 26 in *July*. He's going to walk as a franchise type player at age 26 with nary a serious extension offer made to him. I don't know if it's because of the knee surgeries or what...but it always felt the Orioles would never handle him seriously.

So he's going to walk and the O's are going to get some jacked draft picks. Relative to Machado's future value as an about to be in his prime SS...come on. It's disgraceful that this has come to this. All because Duquette is half-assing a 2018 "all-in". 

It's absurd.

There are a few things here we think we know and a few things we do know.  There is also an awful lot that we do not know.  And there is without question many places to assign blame for not maximizing this Oriole window.  But your critique of Dan Duquette as whiffing and half assing his job is, well... a half assed whiff.

Look, Im fine blaming DD for giving away young pitching for marginal players.  I was and still am fine with Erod for Miller and it damn near put the O's in the WS.  I THINK, but don't know, that the worst contract signed was something DD didn't want to do...some guy named Davis.  And I THINK, but dont know where blame for Trumbo goes.  I am completely comfortable with this though....

In spite of the many limitations placed on DD, and regardless of how much or how little credit you or I give him for his record here, which is the best in this owners tenure, I think DD missed on managing or obtaining the pitching needed to capture the title during this run.  I also think, that the team will be better off than when he arrived if he leaves at the end of this year (and I dont think he wants to come back if he can be employed elsewhere...which is not guaranteed) assuming that we are not gutted for trades between now and the end of the year.  I will also say that while I THINK he has busted his ass for the Orioles, the Toronto saga leaves much to be answered for by the organization and by DD himself.  I don't expect to ever get those answers, but I put that as the number 2 top complaint re DD's tenure.    

Specifically regarding Manny...I just don't know. I agree he is a generational talent, and I have always and continue to be in favor of giving him a fortune to stay.  But I think asking for two controllable pitchers for him was fine and holding out that something might occur in order to make him willing to stay is at least defensible.  No one should ever be untouchable, but people would have rioted if Manny got moved for less than something pretty substantial.  If no one offers that...and if he wants to leave, then eventually he will.  There has been ample opportunity to do something different, we do not disagree there at all.  But I think characterizing all of this as being on DD is just lazy and without a doubt incomplete.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, foxfield said:

There are a few things here we think we know and a few things we do know.  There is also an awful lot that we do not know.  And there is without question many places to assign blame for not maximizing this Oriole window.  But your critique of Dan Duquette as whiffing and half assing his job is, well... a half assed whiff.

Look, Im fine blaming DD for giving away young pitching for marginal players.  I was and still am fine with Erod for Miller and it damn near put the O's in the WS.  I THINK, but don't know, that the worst contract signed was something DD didn't want to do...some guy named Davis.  And I THINK, but dont know where blame for Trumbo goes.  I am completely comfortable with this though....

In spite of the many limitations placed on DD, and regardless of how much or how little credit you or I give him for his record here, which is the best in this owners tenure, I think DD missed on managing or obtaining the pitching needed to capture the title during this run.  I also think, that the team will be better off than when he arrived if he leaves at the end of this year (and I dont think he wants to come back if he can be employed elsewhere...which is not guaranteed) assuming that we are not gutted for trades between now and the end of the year.  I will also say that while I THINK he has busted his ass for the Orioles, the Toronto saga leaves much to be answered for by the organization and by DD himself.  I don't expect to ever get those answers, but I put that as the number 2 top complaint re DD's tenure.    

Specifically regarding Manny...I just don't know. I agree he is a generational talent, and I have always and continue to be in favor of giving him a fortune to stay.  But I think asking for two controllable pitchers for him was fine and holding out that something might occur in order to make him willing to stay is at least defensible.  No one should ever be untouchable, but people would have rioted if Manny got moved for less than something pretty substantial.  If no one offers that...and if he wants to leave, then eventually he will.  There has been ample opportunity to do something different, we do not disagree there at all.  But I think characterizing all of this as being on DD is just lazy and without a doubt incomplete.

You think one year of Manny and the ability to slap a QO on him is worth two controllable pitchers?  (I'm sure we are not talking #4-5 guys here right?)

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

 And after 2018 you lose guys like Machado (who is only 25, btw) and are going to get jack squat in return for him (comparatively) when he walks. It's irresponsible to hold onto him for 2018 while parading out this soon to be average at best team this year.

I'd rather enjoy one more year of a great player rather than trade him for the surplus value of (5-8 wins x $8M per) - $15M salary (and QO considerations).  What are you going to get for $35M in value?  One top 100 prospect and a couple random arms?  A few years of a #3 starter?  I'd rather watch Manny throw someone out from foul ground in shallow left a few more times before he's gone.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'd rather enjoy one more year of a great player rather than trade him for the surplus value of (5-8 wins x $8M per) - $15M salary.  What are you going to get for $35M in value?  One top 100 prospect and a couple random arms?  A few years of a #3 starter?  I'd rather watch Manny throw someone out from foul ground in shallow left a few more times before he's gone.

I think his excess value is closer to 50M.  You forgot to include the value of the first round pick if he walked and the bump in season ticket sales and increased likelihood of the making/advancing further in the playoffs.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I think his excess value is closer to 50M.  You forgot to include the value of the first round pick if he walked and the bump in season ticket sales and increased likelihood of the making the playoffs.

Yea, I just added a footnote about the QO.  I'd taken a good long break from thinking about this stuff and it's just coming back.

Still, $50M isn't a big haul.  They might get something worthwhile, but I'm having trouble getting excited about the middling returns we get for accelerating the descent into a Manny-less 65 win wasteland.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yea, I just added a footnote about the QO.  I'd taken a good long break from thinking about this stuff and it's just coming back.

Still, $50M isn't a big haul.  They might get something worthwhile, but I'm having trouble getting excited about the middling returns we get for accelerating the descent into a Manny-less 65 win wasteland.

Sure, that was why I questioned the expectation of getting two cost controlled pitchers back.

But I'd rather get 50M in value than just the pick.

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think one year of Manny and the ability to slap a QO on him is worth two controllable pitchers?  (I'm sure we are not talking #4-5 guys here right?)

I think a MLB ready pitcher and another controllable arm was a reasonable request.  Also, trading Manny before the season starts allows team to negotiate (little value) and receive a pick (definitely valuable).  Hey if you are one stud away from winning it all, I think it's doable.  I still think if the Yankees feel they need him, they will make the move later...

My point is this, Im not giving Manny away because he is gonna be a FA.  Anyway, it appears, that MLB Gm's agree with you, that the offer was unreasonable.  Fine, Ill take the pick and keep the option to move him later and give him a shot to audition for the biggest contract in history.  He might just carry us to glory.

[Hank Scorpio]

Manny is fun to watch, no doubt. I expect he'll put on a show this summer in anticipation of that big fat New York paycheck.

But I just can't help but shake my head at the following:

1. We finished in last place last year. At the deadline if you squinted REAL hard you could say we were  "in it" for the 2nd Wild Card.

2. Manny will not be an Oriole in 2019.

3. Our key acquisition in our "reload" year is Andrew Cashner.

 

[Aglets]

1 minute ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Manny is fun to watch, no doubt. I expect he'll put on a show this summer in anticipation of that big fat New York paycheck.

But I just can't help but shake my head at the following:

1. We finished in last place last year. At the deadline if you squinted REAL hard you could say we were  "in it" for the 2nd Wild Card.

2. Manny will not be an Oriole in 2019.

3. Our key acquisition in our "reload" year is Andrew Cashner.

 

Not to mention cutting payroll by roughly 20%.

[nadecir]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'd rather enjoy one more year of a great player rather than trade him for the surplus value of (5-8 wins x $8M per) - $15M salary (and QO considerations).  What are you going to get for $35M in value?  One top 100 prospect and a couple random arms?  A few years of a #3 starter?  I'd rather watch Manny throw someone out from foul ground in shallow left a few more times before he's gone.

The problem with trading Machado was the attempt to trade him was at least a year too late.

You can say it's fun to watch Machado for one more year.  But there is a long-term cost associated with him being on the team this season.  In addition to any players acquired in a trade that may be useful beyond this season, a few extra meaningless wins this season mean less valuable draft picks.  Money spent on Machado this year could be going to lock up the pre-arbitration players for a couple of years beyond their first years of free agency.  Or heaven forbid, the money could be spent in the international market.   There are better places long-term to put Machado's salary money.

The value of very high draft picks in baseball is so high right now that keeping a great player around to win a few more games, with little if any chance of making the playoffs, is counter-productive. 

We are literally watching the MLB morph into the NBA with several teams purposely tanking.  Only in baseball, there are no salary cap exceptions for veteran players.  This is making veteran players even less valuable in baseball than in basketball.  Free agency in baseball this offseason is evidence of this. 

There are several teams not participating at all in free agency.  This is why the MLBPA is so upset; the tanking trend in baseball is becoming more prevalent now.  And there is a good reason why teams are tanking.

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'd rather enjoy one more year of a great player rather than trade him for the surplus value of (5-8 wins x $8M per) - $15M salary (and QO considerations).  What are you going to get for $35M in value?  One top 100 prospect and a couple random arms?  A few years of a #3 starter?  I'd rather watch Manny throw someone out from foul ground in shallow left a few more times before he's gone.

I love watching Manny. And I'm only going to love watching him if he's an Oriole or NotAYankeeAndNotARedSockAndNotABlueJay. The thing about it is this...he's going to be 26 in July. Letting franchise players just walk is inexcusable. We haven't heard any serious discussions about long term extensions. Hell, if anything, we've largely heard Duquette gloss over him as a player.

So it's a crap situation. We're essentially going to be left with getting a "2nd" rounder and a 4th rounder, most likely.

Or you trade him and move on.

The thing about this (and the Zach Britton debacle) is we hold on to players *too long*. This team under Duquette has routinely held on to guys until their value is virtual nil and either let them walk or trade them for a bag of balls. It's terribly managed. Now, people might say it's Duquette just getting every win possible from the team until the end of the 2018 season, but it essentially proves that Duquette can't walk (compete now) and chew gum (plan for the future) at the same time.

I mean, this team was a disaster last year. If all indications were that Manny wouldn't sign an extension/we wouldn't give him a big enough contract, then trade him midyear last year.

If we use your formula, Drungo I'd say it's more like this (assuming you think Manny is worth about 6.5 WAR/season):

3.2 wins (half season, 2017) = $25.6m

6.5 wins (full season, 2018) = $52m

TOTAL = ~$78m

His salary last year was $11.5m. If traded mid year, the team would be on the hook for the $5.8m. Then the $18m this year. So we're talking roughly $24m from $78m and that gives us $54m plus whatever premium you want to add to commodities in the middle of a season (playoff teams). 

So what could you get for that? What if you ate his salary from 2017? 

That's the frustrating thing here. This team was a dumpster fire in 2017 and most likely will be a dumpster fire in 2018. It's half assed at best.

Sorry if I'm sounding off and this is partially addressing a separate post and partially addressing yours.

[LookitsPuck]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think his excess value is closer to 50M.  You forgot to include the value of the first round pick if he walked and the bump in season ticket sales and increased likelihood of the making/advancing further in the playoffs.

They're not really 1st round picks any longer, right? It's like a sandwich pick between 1st and 2nd.

"Teams that lose free agents who rejected qualifying offers are subject to the following rules:

• A non-market disqualified Revenue Sharing Payee team will receive a pick immediately following the first round if the player signs a contract with a total guarantee of $50 million or more.
• A Competitive Balance Tax paying team will receive a pick immediately following the fourth round.
• All other teams will receive a pick immediately after the Competitive Balance Round B.

Read more at https://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/new-cba-changes-draft/#bvkYIUMGc1vOd5S0.99"

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

They're not really 1st round picks any longer, right? It's like a sandwich pick between 1st and 2nd.

"Teams that lose free agents who rejected qualifying offers are subject to the following rules:

• A non-market disqualified Revenue Sharing Payee team will receive a pick immediately following the first round if the player signs a contract with a total guarantee of $50 million or more.
• A Competitive Balance Tax paying team will receive a pick immediately following the fourth round.
• All other teams will receive a pick immediately after the Competitive Balance Round B.

Read more at https://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/new-cba-changes-draft/#bvkYIUMGc1vOd5S0.99"

I consider any pick before the start of the second round a first round pick.   If they want to call it something else now it is their prerogative.