Duquette Suggests Rebuild Could Be Possible After This Year

[LookitsPuck]

3 hours ago, foxfield said:

There are a few things here we think we know and a few things we do know.  There is also an awful lot that we do not know.  And there is without question many places to assign blame for not maximizing this Oriole window.  But your critique of Dan Duquette as whiffing and half assing his job is, well... a half assed whiff.

Look, Im fine blaming DD for giving away young pitching for marginal players.  I was and still am fine with Erod for Miller and it damn near put the O's in the WS.  I THINK, but don't know, that the worst contract signed was something DD didn't want to do...some guy named Davis.  And I THINK, but dont know where blame for Trumbo goes.  I am completely comfortable with this though....

In spite of the many limitations placed on DD, and regardless of how much or how little credit you or I give him for his record here, which is the best in this owners tenure, I think DD missed on managing or obtaining the pitching needed to capture the title during this run.  I also think, that the team will be better off than when he arrived if he leaves at the end of this year (and I dont think he wants to come back if he can be employed elsewhere...which is not guaranteed) assuming that we are not gutted for trades between now and the end of the year.  I will also say that while I THINK he has busted his ass for the Orioles, the Toronto saga leaves much to be answered for by the organization and by DD himself.  I don't expect to ever get those answers, but I put that as the number 2 top complaint re DD's tenure.    

Specifically regarding Manny...I just don't know. I agree he is a generational talent, and I have always and continue to be in favor of giving him a fortune to stay.  But I think asking for two controllable pitchers for him was fine and holding out that something might occur in order to make him willing to stay is at least defensible.  No one should ever be untouchable, but people would have rioted if Manny got moved for less than something pretty substantial.  If no one offers that...and if he wants to leave, then eventually he will.  There has been ample opportunity to do something different, we do not disagree there at all.  But I think characterizing all of this as being on DD is just lazy and without a doubt incomplete.

I'm not necessarily saying DD is lazy. By half-assing, I just refuse to believe that it's acceptable to lose 3/5 of your rotation and you bring back a (probably) ineffective/hurt Tillman and Andrew Cashman and then say..."let's compete!". 

Dan Duquette is a lame duck GM and he's acting like it. Or at least that's how it is being portrayed to me. There were/are creative ways to build a team...and like it or not, Duquette signed Mark Trumbo to a 4 year deal after he signed Chris Davis to a 7 year deal. 

But here we are in 2018 with a payroll over $120m and we don't even have a full rotation. 

Duquette may very well be busting his ass behind the scenes, but the output is woeful these last 2 offseasons. And I'll never forget how he essentially screwed the 2015 club over by essentially having one foot out the door after the 2014 season and then signing Travis freaking Snider as the "oh crap, I have to stay" prized signing. 

[Can_of_corn]

Trumbo signed a three year deal.

[foxfield]

3 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I'm not necessarily saying DD is lazy. By half-assing, I just refuse to believe that it's acceptable to lose 3/5 of your rotation and you bring back a (probably) ineffective/hurt Tillman and Andrew Cashman and then say..."let's compete!". 

Dan Duquette is a lame duck GM and he's acting like it. Or at least that's how it is being portrayed to me. There were/are creative ways to build a team...and like it or not, Duquette signed Mark Trumbo to a 4 year deal after he signed Chris Davis to a 7 year deal. 

But here we are in 2018 with a payroll over $120m and we don't even have a full rotation. 

Duquette may very well be busting his ass behind the scenes, but the output is woeful these last 2 offseasons. And I'll never forget how he essentially screwed the 2015 club over by essentially having one foot out the door after the 2014 season and then signing Travis freaking Snider as the "oh crap, I have to stay" prized signing. 

Again, I think many of us would agree with your general observations.  I think we consistently underestimate how abnormal and dysfunctional the Oriole front office is under PA.  Starting the off season with 4 of your most used starting pitchers leaving, after helping to attain the worst ERA in team history, seemed to scream opportunity for the Orioles.  I don't think it is acceptable to bring back only Tillman Cashman and the Jackson 5 (Rule V) pitchers.  But, you and I aren't calling the shots and to be honest, there are plenty of options still available.

Many thought this was a perfect time to rebuild, others, wanted the last run with the current core.  Who the Orioles sign, or don't sign...who they trade or trade for...requires a process that often defies logic.  Again, I think DD failed 1) To manage, even with all of the limitations placed upon him, to capture the pitching needed to maximize the run that he has had.  2) I also think that the Toronto issue, cost momentum after the Orioles best season to take the final step. 3) He failed to convince ownership that going all in on contracts meant Manny/Schoop or Bundy/Gausman and not Davis/Trumbo.  Other than that, I just think he has been much better than you do and think that we can and have done much worse and may well again.

[LookitsPuck]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Trumbo signed a three year deal.

My mistake.

Also got autocorrected re: Cashman. Meant Cashner.

[LookitsPuck]

10 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Again, I think many of us would agree with your general observations.  I think we consistently underestimate how abnormal and dysfunctional the Oriole front office is under PA.  Starting the off season with 4 of your most used starting pitchers leaving, after helping to attain the worst ERA in team history, seemed to scream opportunity for the Orioles.  I don't think it is acceptable to bring back only Tillman Cashman and the Jackson 5 (Rule V) pitchers.  But, you and I aren't calling the shots and to be honest, there are plenty of options still available.

Many thought this was a perfect time to rebuild, others, wanted the last run with the current core.  Who the Orioles sign, or don't sign...who they trade or trade for...requires a process that often defies logic.  Again, I think DD failed 1) To manage, even with all of the limitations placed upon him, to capture the pitching needed to maximize the run that he has had.  2) I also think that the Toronto issue, cost momentum after the Orioles best season to take the final step. 3) He failed to convince ownership that going all in on contracts meant Manny/Schoop or Bundy/Gausman and not Davis/Trumbo.  Other than that, I just think he has been much better than you do and think that we can and have done much worse and may well again.

I think Duquette has been a good/average GM.

I don’t think he’s been bad nor great. I agree with most of what you said, too.

If he can’t get management buyin consistently, I wonder if he lost control after the Blue Jays stunt and then it’s been a power struggle between Buck and Duquette.

There’s definite dysfunction in the administration and that is Angelos’s fault, for sure. 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

In July 2016, the Orioles were pursuing the playoffs while the Yankees had already given up on the season (though they played well subsequently despite having thrown in the towel for the year). Dook was not about to trade relievers that season, so it can't be said that lacks timing because he missed that year's market. There was nothing so brilliant about Cashman trading relievers for prospects, especially considering that multiple teams were trying to top each other with the best prospect packages.

In July, 2017, Dook didn't receive prospect-studded offers like what Cleveland and the Cubs gifted MFY. HIs situation was much different from Cashman's in that Dook's stud reliever had been injured while Cashman's were deemed healthy. So he chose not to take packages of less attractive prospects than the MFY had received the year prior. I don't think it has anything to do with Dook failing to have a "sense" for "timing the market." During the season that he had the opportunity to trade relievers, the offers failed to convince him that a trade was worthwhile, in his estimation. How could any GM time when multiple contending teams will be battling to out-do each other in the trade market?

Cashman was fortunate; his 2016 trades after deciding to punt the season demonstrated no talent that the other GMs don't also have. Nor does Dook's decision not to trade Britton last year prove he lacks the "talent for timing the market."

First of all, I agree the situations were different.    But I don’t think you give Cashman enough credit for deciding to punt the season in 2016.   His team was in a pretty comparable position to the Orioles’ position in 2015 and 2017, and he went a decidedly different direction.   I also think he did a very good job of milking every last bit of value out of those trades.   

As to Britton, Dan got a little bit snakebit with his injuries.    I’m not really faulting Dan for that.   And I’ve said many times that I don’t think the O’s were really in position to trade Britton in the 2016-17 offseason unless they were going to start a rebuild then, which they weren’t going to do after making the wild card.    

[Beef Supreme]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

First of all, I agree the situations were different.    But I don’t think you give Cashman enough credit for deciding to punt the season in 2016.   His team was in a pretty comparable position to the Orioles’ position in 2015 and 2017, and he went a decidedly different direction.   I also think he did a very good job of milking every last bit of value out of those trades.  

As to Britton, Dan got a little bit snakebit with his injuries.    I’m not really faulting Dan for that.   And I’ve said many times that I don’t think the O’s were really in position to trade Britton in the 2016-17 offseason unless they were going to start a rebuild then, which they weren’t going to do after making the wild card.  

I hear a lot of people say now that they said in October of 2016 that they would have traded Britton and Machado to start a rebuild. I agree with you that the Orioles were not about to slam shut their window of contention two years early when they had just won 89 games, lost a dramatic, extra-inning wild card game, and appeared to be positioned well to make a run at another post-season appearance in 2017. I don't know how many of those people actually argued to trade both of those players at that time, but I think it is unrealistic to expect smaller market teams to tear down what they have built prematurely when they are near the zenith of their potential to compete for a World Series appearance. Teams like the Dodgers and MFY can buy their way to the post-season 9 out of 10 years. Others have to "strike while the iron is hot," because they know it won't be hot for long.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Beef Supreme said:

I hear a lot of people say now that they said in October of 2016 that they would have traded Britton and Machado to start a rebuild. I agree with you that the Orioles were not about to slam shut their window of contention two years early when they had just won 89 games, lost a dramatic, extra-inning wild card game, and appeared to be positioned well to make a run at another post-season appearance in 2017. I don't know how many of those people actually argued to trade both of those players at that time, but I think it is unrealistic to expect smaller market teams to tear down what they have built prematurely when they are near the zenith of their potential to compete for a World Series appearance. Teams like the Dodgers and MFY can buy their way to the post-season 9 out of 10 years. Others have to "strike while the iron is hot," because they know it won't be hot for long.

No chance ownership would have approved even if you could convince Buck it was the right move.

But Britton should have been traded for the best deal possible at the 2017 deadline.  And maybe you listen to offers for Manny at the same time.

[Beef Supreme]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No chance ownership would have approved even if you could convince Buck it was the right move.

But Britton should have been traded for the best deal possible at the 2017 deadline.  And maybe you listen to offers for Manny at the same time.

I wanted them to trade Brach last July no matter what. Best deal possible, even if it didn't look equitable on the surface.

I was ambivalent about trading the other two. I wouldn't have traded Britton if the prize were Colin Moran. Likewise, I wouldn't have traded Gerrit Cole if the prize were Colin Moran. The four players including Moran that the Bucs received does not appear to be an equitable return for Cole, imo.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

I wanted them to trade Brach last July no matter what. Best deal possible, even if it didn't look equitable on the surface.

I was ambivalent about trading the other two. I wouldn't have traded Britton if the prize were Colin Moran. Likewise, I wouldn't have traded Gerrit Cole if the prize were Colin Moran. The four players including Moran that the Bucs received does not appear to be an equitable return for Cole, imo.

I don't think Cole = Britton at the deadline either.

[Beef Supreme]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think Cole = Britton at the deadline either.

...on multiple levels.

If I were a Pirates' fan, I would be no fan of Neal Huntington now.

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

First of all, I agree the situations were different.    But I don’t think you give Cashman enough credit for deciding to punt the season in 2016.   His team was in a pretty comparable position to the Orioles’ position in 2015 and 2017, and he went a decidedly different direction.   I also think he did a very good job of milking every last bit of value out of those trades.   

As to Britton, Dan got a little bit snakebit with his injuries.    I’m not really faulting Dan for that.   And I’ve said many times that I don’t think the O’s were really in position to trade Britton in the 2016-17 offseason unless they were going to start a rebuild then, which they weren’t going to do after making the wild card.    

The O's were in a position to replace Britton internally. 

You don't need to do a full rebuild if you just trade Britton.

But, really...this is just more evidence of holding on to somebody too long.

[tntoriole]

Whether it is ownership or DD, the reality is that how Manny Machado was handled will be the lasting  mark from this era that will follow this team the rest of Manny’s long career starring for somebody else. 

The absolute wasting of this once in a lifetime star...either by not extending him earlier or if not then by forcing a trade after the 2016 season when, yes, it would have impacted the 2017 rosy scenarios, but, in fact, we finished dead last with him instead of now reaping the benefits of an entire farm system of prospects if we had traded him knowing full well that we were not going to sign him ever.

That has all been water under the bridge since before the 2017 season though. DD is just lameducking it to then try to go on to another gig.  DD, in my opinion, has not had any vision for the future or true attachment to this organization from the start and, worse, it has been seen in his performance since he was not allowed to leave toToronto after the 2014 season.

And the failure to do even one thing to improve this team after winning the division in 2014, because I think he was too busy distractedly playing footsie with Toronto...well, for me, that was when my opinion of Duquette went from adequate given the ownership to not good even despite the ownership.  

 

[Hank Scorpio]

13 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

I hear a lot of people say now that they said in October of 2016 that they would have traded Britton and Machado to start a rebuild. I agree with you that the Orioles were not about to slam shut their window of contention two years early when they had just won 89 games, lost a dramatic, extra-inning wild card game, and appeared to be positioned well to make a run at another post-season appearance in 2017. I don't know how many of those people actually argued to trade both of those players at that time, but I think it is unrealistic to expect smaller market teams to tear down what they have built prematurely when they are near the zenith of their potential to compete for a World Series appearance. Teams like the Dodgers and MFY can buy their way to the post-season 9 out of 10 years. Others have to "strike while the iron is hot," because they know it won't be hot for long.

They sprinted to the division crown in 2014 without Manny OR Chris Davis.

Just like it always is, it was about the starting pitching.