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2018 Chris Tillman


Il BuonO

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On 4/3/2018 at 8:11 AM, theocean said:

There's been so many great power pitchers who have turned to toast before they were 30. It really is a shame.

It looks like Tillman is going to have to live and die with his curveball.

 

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think he will provide value in the pen?

I'd DFA him.

As I recall, Tillman finished the 2017 season in long relief out of the pen. He didn't do too badly. As I posted before, perhaps he should return to the pen and let Alan Mills teach him how to throw curveballs and sliders. If he is patient, he can become an effective pitcher, get extended for the 2019 season and maybe rejoin the rotation.

 

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6 hours ago, Nevermore said:

 

As I recall, Tillman finished the 2017 season in long relief out of the pen. He didn't do too badly. As I posted before, perhaps he should return to the pen and let Alan Mills teach him how to throw curveballs and sliders. If he is patient, he can become an effective pitcher, get extended for the 2019 season and maybe rejoin the rotation.

 

That's likely where he's headed if Wright can string together another solid start or two. Tillmans fastball is gone (90) and he really doesn't have a consistent out pitch.

Buck had to try to get the extra inning to to the previous night and it resulted in a loss.

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8 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

 

Whom Buck trusts is no proof of who is better. I'm not convinced that Tillman is better than minor-leaguer Aquino.

I suppose someone could argue that Tillman is better than a pitcher on the disabled list. Won't be me.

Whether or not Buck does trust Tillman, the real question remains: should Buck trust Tillman?   7.84 ERA, 1.89 WHIP last year, 8.68 ERA, 2.46 WHIP so far this year.    There’s a very good chance that Aquino, Ynoa (once healthy) and dozens of other guys who are freely available can do better than that, whether or not they are “dominating” in AAA.   Wright in his career has been much better than that.   Ubaldo and Hellickson were much better than that last year.   Finding someone to improve substantially on that isn’t hard at all.

So the question is simply, how long do the O’s wait for Tillman to improve drastically.    I’ll say this:   Tillman has one more start and Wright has two (including today) before Cobb returns.   If Wright has two more starts like his last one, and Tillman has one more like his last two, I think it would be managerial malpractice to leave Tillman in the rotation once Cobb is back.    And I’m someone who didn’t think Tillman’s start yesterday was all negative.

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7 hours ago, Nevermore said:

 

As I recall, Tillman finished the 2017 season in long relief out of the pen. He didn't do too badly. As I posted before, perhaps he should return to the pen and let Alan Mills teach him how to throw curveballs and sliders. If he is patient, he can become an effective pitcher, get extended for the 2019 season and maybe rejoin the rotation.

 

Sure he only had a 4.02 ERA in relief, with a sample size of 7.2 innings.  He still had a K rate under 6.

 

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What I'm still left sort of flummoxed about is how our starters are handled.

 

Under Buck, our starters have done a pretty decent job thru 5 complete innings.  There are bumps, of course, and Jimenez rarely made a decent start at all, but 5 complete often seems a fair estimate of where most of the guys hit their point of diminishing returns.  It makes sense, that's the beginning of the third round of at bats for opposing teams and adjustments have been made, etc.  I completely understand trying to get an extra inning out of a starter to save the bullpen too, BUT...

 

Our situation with starters is no longer just an observation, it is a track record.  Why not take whoever out and just run the pen.  Somebody gets the 6th, someone else, the 7th, etc?  We'd have to carry an extra RP or two, but we already do that, don't we, as much as possible, anyway. 

 

Yesterday it was a tight game.  Tillman wasn't sharp, but the game was busted on an almost E on Davis missing that over the shoulder.   Still, I can't help but think that a pitching change to start the 6th might have had a different outcome... 

 

This is already the second or third time the above scenario has played out and it has been going on for several years now.  Why not just concede these guys are 5 inning guys and remove them.  They could even be used as a one inning/one batter reliever the next day or day after and still have enough rest to be ready for their next start.

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7 hours ago, section18 said:

It's apparent we will not win when Tillman is starting this year unless we score10 plus runs during the game.   Okay ! Go ahead and say it. That is painfully obvious! Hopefully Buck and DD will not wait to long to make a change. The sooner we get back to .500 baseball and better....... the better.

I agree. If Tillman would make 30 starts, we would go 10-20 at best. Actually we’d habe to go 10-18 now, just to hit that mark. 

Give the team a chance. 

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9 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

What I'm still left sort of flummoxed about is how our starters are handled.

 

Under Buck, our starters have done a pretty decent job thru 5 complete innings.  There are bumps, of course, and Jimenez rarely made a decent start at all, but 5 complete often seems a fair estimate of where most of the guys hit their point of diminishing returns.  It makes sense, that's the beginning of the third round of at bats for opposing teams and adjustments have been made, etc.  I completely understand trying to get an extra inning out of a starter to save the bullpen too, BUT...

 

Our situation with starters is no longer just an observation, it is a track record.  Why not take whoever out and just run the pen.  Somebody gets the 6th, someone else, the 7th, etc?  We'd have to carry an extra RP or two, but we already do that, don't we, as much as possible, anyway. 

 

Yesterday it was a tight game.  Tillman wasn't sharp, but the game was busted on an almost E on Davis missing that over the shoulder.   Still, I can't help but think that a pitching change to start the 6th might have had a different outcome... 

 

This is already the second or third time the above scenario has played out and it has been going on for several years now.  Why not just concede these guys are 5 inning guys and remove them.  They could even be used as a one inning/one batter reliever the next day or day after and still have enough rest to be ready for their next start.

Year after year, the O’s are near the bottom of the league in innings pitched by the starters.    If Buck’s hook were much quicker, the bullpen would fall apart from exhaustion.   You have to take the long view.

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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Year after year, the O’s are near the bottom of the league in innings pitched by the starters.    If Buck’s hook were much quicker, the bullpen would fall apart from exhaustion.   You have to take the long view.

Taking the long view might be acknowledging the limits of your starting rotation and having arms in your bullpen that can pitch more than 80 innings.

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Tillman has had on and off velocity problems throughout his career. When his fastball is in the high 80's he's terrible. He's not a Jamie Moyer type pitcher with an arsenal that can offset a slow fastball. He's done.

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8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Taking the long view might be acknowledging the limits of your starting rotation and having arms in your bullpen that can pitch more than 80 innings.

Yeah the big picture is not likely to be pretty this year for the starting pitching. I’d say the ceiling would be league average - I’d take that in a heartbeat. 

As far as Tillman goes, I hate to suggest the eye test method but let’s face it... when your fastball is 88-90 and you can’t control it, you are fresh meat. I’m not going to throw any spin rates at you or anything. But unless he’s in a 12-15 month dead arm period from which he’s going to miraculously awaken, he’s done. 

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23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Year after year, the O’s are near the bottom of the league in innings pitched by the starters.    If Buck’s hook were much quicker, the bullpen would fall apart from exhaustion.   You have to take the long view.

I get it, but as starting pitchers they're expected to make it 7 complete.  Ours almost never have.  Even the years we've made the Playoffs, starters on our team were given accolades by Buck for going 6 or even into the 6th.  Let them pitch 5 decent innings.  It was a 3-3 tie yesterday going into the 6th.  Remove Tillman and have him in reserve for an inning the next day or two if needed.  That would make up his 7 that he's "expected" to complete each game as a starter.  He'd still have 5 or 6 days to "rest." 

Starters of the 1970's and early 80's sometimes pitched two starts in a 7 day period and were FAR more effective than almost any pitcher in the league nowadays.  All I'm saying is if you know this is the hand you've been dealt, make a real commitment to just adapting to it.  We've got 4 Colby Rasmuses riding the bench most days.  Another RP in one of their places couldn't hurt.

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15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Taking the long view might be acknowledging the limits of your starting rotation and having arms in your bullpen that can pitch more than 80 innings.

This is my argument. If you know the limits, at least of certain starters, then pull them before you know what is going to happen, happens.  :D It sounds ridiculous, but I think you see what I mean.  We know some guys can give us 5 good innings.  Don't press into 6 when you know the wall is coming fast.  You can almost see Buck crossing his fingers and toes and saying Hail Mary's as they pan to him in the dugout.  Acknowledge the wall, thank the player for delivering a close game, and move on with a chance to win BEFORE surrendering two or three or seven runs and putting the game out of reach.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Whether or not Buck does trust Tillman, the real question remains: should Buck trust Tillman?   7.84 ERA, 1.89 WHIP last year, 8.68 ERA, 2.46 WHIP so far this year.    There’s a very good chance that Aquino, Ynoa (once healthy) and dozens of other guys who are freely available can do better than that, whether or not they are “dominating” in AAA.   Wright in his career has been much better than that.   Ubaldo and Hellickson were much better than that last year.   Finding someone to improve substantially on that isn’t hard at all.

So the question is simply, how long do the O’s wait for Tillman to improve drastically.    I’ll say this:   Tillman has one more start and Wright has two (including today) before Cobb returns.   If Wright has two more starts like his last one, and Tillman has one more like his last two, I think it would be managerial malpractice to leave Tillman in the rotation once Cobb is back.    And I’m someone who didn’t think Tillman’s start yesterday was all negative.

You are using Tillman's 2017 numbers as a baseline.  I hope that is not where he is right now.   He looked better than that for 5 innings yesterday vs a tough Yankees team.

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We know some guys can give us 5 good innings.  Don't press into 6 when you know the wall is coming fast.  You can almost see Buck crossing his fingers and toes and saying Hail Mary's as they pan to him in the dugout.

This has always been my issue with Buck. As a fan there are times we can see a starter needs to be pulled. Yet Buck has a tendency to hang them out to dry until it's too late. Is it that "loyalty" thing?

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21 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

I get it, but as starting pitchers they're expected to make it 7 complete.  Ours almost never have.  Even the years we've made the Playoffs, starters on our team were given accolades by Buck for going 6 or even into the 6th.  Let them pitch 5 decent innings.  It was a 3-3 tie yesterday going into the 6th.  Remove Tillman and have him in reserve for an inning the next day or two if needed.  That would make up his 7 that he's "expected" to complete each game as a starter.  He'd still have 5 or 6 days to "rest." 

Starters of the 1970's and early 80's sometimes pitched two starts in a 7 day period and were FAR more effective than almost any pitcher in the league nowadays.  All I'm saying is if you know this is the hand you've been dealt, make a real commitment to just adapting to it.  We've got 4 Colby Rasmuses riding the bench most days.  Another RP in one of their places couldn't hurt.

I believe Clayton Kershaw was the only pitcher to average 7IP per start last season. Neither World Series team had a pitcher who made 30 starts. Things have changed. Comparing today's pitchers with those of the 70s and 80s is a waste of time. It's a different game.

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