Is this rock bottom?

[atomic]

3 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Need to go 46-62 to avoid 100 losses.  I would bet against that as the team is compromised today.  Plus trading away Manny and other assets is likely to sting.  

Trading Manny or anyone else won't make the team worse.   They will lose over 100 games with Manny and the rest of the guys. 

[Uli2001]

6 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

It’s even more amazing what a lack of talent, damaged pitchers, and s combination of those factors does to team ERA. Effort and morale? Meh. I don’t think Ubaldo, , Wright, etc’s problem has little to with effort. I don’t think the teams defense has much to do with effort. Valencia, Trumbo, etc don’t want to suck. Its talent. 

 

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You left off the part about lacking ability.

It's a fact that the Orioles pitching staff's collective talent is way better than their 5.08 ERA.

[Ohfan67]

11 hours ago, Uli2001 said:

 

It's a fact that the Orioles pitching staff's collective talent is way better than their 5.08 ERA.

"Facts" are funny things. Who's ERA besides Cobb is out of alignment with "talent"? Cashner's ERA is currently 5.07. His 2016 ERA was 5.25. In the National League. He was significantly better last year, but his peripherals last year were meh and he is basically a mid to high 4 ERA guy at 31. Bundy's ERA is within .25 of last year. Gausman's ERA was .3 higher last year than this year. Wright and Araujo have thrown > 50 innings at about a 5.85 ERA, a very predictable result. The 26 inning investment in Tillman was some bizarre chase of fool's gold. What am I missing? Who am I missing? What innings am I missing? I'm not trying to be a jerk, I just honestly don't see it. If you substitute "hope" for "facts", then yeah, a lot of us thought this pitching staff might be significantly better this year. But a lot of that involved orange colored glasses. Between Tillman, Wright, and the Rule 5 pick the Orioles flushed 75 or more innings of pitching completely down the toilet. That's about 16% of all the innings the team has pitched. On the flip side, who's ERA would be better if "morale" was better? Would increased morale lead to much better defense so everyone's ERA would be lower? The team is routinely playing below average defenders at 3B, LF, CF, and occasionally at 1B, RF, and 2B (while Schoop was out). Those players are predictably bad defenders. 

[Three Run Homer]

Using Andrew Susac (with his .125 batting average and -20 OPS+) as a pinch hitter to make the last out of the game with the tying run in scoring position last night has to be rock bottom, right?

[Uli2001]

2 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

"Facts" are funny things. Who's ERA besides Cobb is out of alignment with "talent"? Cashner's ERA is currently 5.07. His 2016 ERA was 5.25. In the National League. He was significantly better last year, but his peripherals last year were meh and he is basically a mid to high 4 ERA guy at 31. Bundy's ERA is within .25 of last year. Gausman's ERA was .3 higher last year than this year. Wright and Araujo have thrown > 50 innings at about a 5.85 ERA, a very predictable result. The 26 inning investment in Tillman was some bizarre chase of fool's gold. What am I missing? Who am I missing? What innings am I missing? I'm not trying to be a jerk, I just honestly don't see it. If you substitute "hope" for "facts", then yeah, a lot of us thought this pitching staff might be significantly better this year. But a lot of that involved orange colored glasses. Between Tillman, Wright, and the Rule 5 pick the Orioles flushed 75 or more innings of pitching completely down the toilet. That's about 16% of all the innings the team has pitched. On the flip side, who's ERA would be better if "morale" was better? Would increased morale lead to much better defense so everyone's ERA would be lower? The team is routinely playing below average defenders at 3B, LF, CF, and occasionally at 1B, RF, and 2B (while Schoop was out). Those players are predictably bad defenders. 

So you basically agree with me, their talent is better than what they have shown over 1/3 of the season. Reasons for that? Bad defense is one for sure. I posit that a losing mindset is another. I will throw in bad coaching as another suspect. 

[Natty]

12 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Using Andrew Susac (with his .125 batting average and -20 OPS+) as a pinch hitter to make the last out of the game with the tying run in scoring position last night has to be rock bottom, right?

I was watching that and thinking like WTF, that's all we have? lt's sad. And pitiful. So yes. That's rock bottom.

[AnythingO's]

8 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

So you basically agree with me, their talent is better than what they have shown over 1/3 of the season. Reasons for that? Bad defense is one for sure. I posit that a losing mindset is another. I will throw in bad coaching as another suspect. 

While I agree with your original point in general, I believe saying "Orioles pitching staff's collective talent is way better than their 5.08 ERA" is a little too broad, hence Ohfan67 response. The 1-4 starters and most of the bullpen "should" be better than 5.08 but Tillman, Wright, and Rule 5 innings will destroy an collective staff ERA.

[Ohfan67]

4 hours ago, Uli2001 said:

So you basically agree with me, their talent is better than what they have shown over 1/3 of the season. Reasons for that? Bad defense is one for sure. I posit that a losing mindset is another. I will throw in bad coaching as another suspect. 

Of course I didn’t agree with you. Cobb’s ERA is the only pitcher whose ERA is not within predictable range. Nice deflection attempt. 

[Uli2001]

3 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

Of course I didn’t agree with you. Cobb’s ERA is the only pitcher whose ERA is not within predictable range. Nice deflection attempt. 

Anyone who is overachieving? So even if I concede everything you said, Cobb's ERA is still bad, making the whole staff underachieving. I rest my case.

[Ohfan67]

13 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

Anyone who is overachieving? So even if I concede everything you said, Cobb's ERA is still bad, making the whole staff underachieving. I rest my case.

Whatever. Let’s see, where’s that ignore button? Ahhh, there it is. 

[Uli2001]

1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

Whatever. Let’s see, where’s that ignore button? Ahhh, there it is. 

I will take "whatever" to mean "I am convinced." It's a pity that you find debating obnoxious. It's the kind of thing that tends to happen on message boards. 

[Ohfan67]

13 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

I will take "whatever" to mean "I am convinced." It's a pity that you find debating obnoxious. It's the kind of thing that tends to happen on message boards. 

I didn’t hit block fast enough. There’s no debate. You offered no data to back up your statements about the pitching staff, the supposed effect of “morale” on defense, etc. nothing. Whatever means that you think “I rest my case” is discussing the Orioles performance. I was interested in reading the justification behind your assertions. I offered data to counter your assertion because I thought it was more fantasy than reality. You didn’t back up your opinion at all. Apparently you really have nothing to say. 

[foxfield]

8 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

Using Andrew Susac (with his .125 batting average and -20 OPS+) as a pinch hitter to make the last out of the game with the tying run in scoring position last night has to be rock bottom, right?

I really wish I could tell you yes.  But it is going to get worse.  This is sort of like that moment when you realize the car is out of control and you are sure it's going to be a bad crash.  We are about to hit the wall and then....

Well, you realize you are not wearing your seatbelt, your insurance lapsed yesterday, the 17 year old your son asked you to drop off on your way home screams something about her weed and that yellow thing blurring your vision is a school bus full of kids on the way to tonights game.

It feels like rock bottom I know.  But it's gonna get much much worse before it gets better.

[Uli2001]

19 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I didn’t hit block fast enough. There’s no debate. You offered no data to back up your statements about the pitching staff, the supposed effect of “morale” on defense, etc. nothing. Whatever means that you think “I rest my case” is discussing the Orioles performance. I was interested in reading the justification behind your assertions. I offered data to counter your assertion because I thought it was more fantasy than reality. You didn’t back up your opinion at all. Apparently you really have nothing to say. 

I have no data to back up the hypothesis that morale has affected team ERA. Who has this kind of data? Bad team ERA leads to bad morale and I believe that bad morale leads to even worse team ERA. Just my two cents, no need to be offended.

[Uli2001]

I forgot to add that you seem to have taken offense to my saying "I rest my case." That's a common rhetorical device, there's nothing to it.