Thanks for Contributing, Nick

[davearm]

Nobody is saying Nick isn't a talented young player who in time will likely be great... what at least I am saying, is that this team could have 5-8 more games in the win column if only Nick could have converted a moderate amount of his chances into success. Now as I said, this has some assumptions that by no means are a given, one being that the bullpen could have kept the lead that he produced....

I am only saying that while his numbers may look ok - good, he has been a disappointment this first half of the season.

I'm saying that.

Markakis is a talented young player who in time could be great.

Those that are making the leap from "could be great" to "will be great" (or even "will likely be great") are setting themselves up for disappointment -- as the very existence of this thread proves.

I wonder where Vegas would put the over/under for career ASG appearances for Markakis.

1?

2?

At any rate, it'd be a lot lower than many folks seem willing to consider.

[TonySoprano]

On July 1, 2006, Nick's numbers were:

207 AB, 2 HR, 16 RBI, .271 BA, .343 OBP, .357 SLG, .700 OPS

He finished with:

491 AB, 16 HR, 62 RBI, .291 BA, .351 OBP, .448 SLG, .799 OPS

I'd give him some more time before I'd say he may have been overrated.

[PaulFolk]

As I said, you can quote stats if you want to, I stand by my statement.

I believe the earth is flat.

Don't give me this "science" mumbo-jumbo! I stand by my statement.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm saying that.

Markakis is a talented young player who in time could be great.

Those that are making the leap from "could be great" to "will be great" (or even "will likely be great") are setting themselves up for disappointment -- as the very existence of this thread proves.

I wonder where Vegas would put the over/under for career ASG appearances for Markakis.

1?

2?

At any rate, it'd be a lot lower than many folks seem willing to consider.

Markakis has had the following lines vs. league average in his two years:

AVG: 106, 101

OBP: 104, 97

SLG: 103, 102

I did a search on everyone since 1954 with an average between 100 and 110, an OBP between 95 and 105, and a SLG between 100 and 110. And a minimum of 750 PAs, all before the age of 23.

The list ended up being 20 players. One is active - Jhonny Peralta. The others are Gregg Jefferies, Sixto Lezcano, Paul Blair, Rich Coggins, Dave Winfield, Carney Lansford, Milt May, Bill Freehan, Junior Felix, Al Oliver, Wil Cordero, Bobby Tolan, Andy Carey, Roy Howell, Claudell Washington, Ron Santo, Tim McCarver, Leo Cardenas, and Buddy Bell.

The average career length of those players was 5647 at bats (or 11.3 years of 500 at bats). And the average number of all star selections was 3.2.

Winfield is a HOFer, Santo should be, Freehan probably should be. Blair, Oliver, Lansford, Cordero, Washington, McCarver, Bell, Lezcano, Jefferies, Tolan, and Cardenas were good players for a long time.

Only Coggins, Felix, maybe Carey could be counted as washouts or failures.

History is on Markakis' side.

[Flosman]

I have away for a bit and I can't believe there are some out there that think Nick is part of the problem. Yea i hoped that he would have a complete year like July and Aug of last season. However I still would not be a bit surprised to see him with a 850-900 OPS for this season. He is a great looking young hitter. Some during this thread have said he would produce better if he hit elsewhere in the order. This partially identifies the problem, we have a complete lack of true impact bats in our order. For a lineup like the MFY he is probably hitting 8th and nobody would be complaining. I think he will be a true star for a long time, not a player like Pujols or A-rod but solidly in the group just behind players like that. Most guys his age are in AA ball if they are good prospects, not working on the 1500 ABs most experts claim it takes before you really can see what kind of player you might have.

[davearm]

Markakis has had the following lines vs. league average in his two years:

AVG: 106, 101

OBP: 104, 97

SLG: 103, 102

I did a search on everyone since 1954 with an average between 100 and 110, an OBP between 95 and 105, and a SLG between 100 and 110. And a minimum of 750 PAs, all before the age of 23.

The list ended up being 20 players. One is active - Jhonny Peralta. The others are Gregg Jefferies, Sixto Lezcano, Paul Blair, Rich Coggins, Dave Winfield, Carney Lansford, Milt May, Bill Freehan, Junior Felix, Al Oliver, Wil Cordero, Bobby Tolan, Andy Carey, Roy Howell, Claudell Washington, Ron Santo, Tim McCarver, Leo Cardenas, and Buddy Bell.

The average career length of those players was 5647 at bats (or 11.3 years of 500 at bats). And the average number of all star selections was 3.2.

Winfield is a HOFer, Santo should be, Freehan probably should be. Blair, Oliver, Lansford, Cordero, Washington, McCarver, Bell, Lezcano, Jefferies, Tolan, and Cardenas were good players for a long time.

Only Coggins, Felix, maybe Carey could be counted as washouts or failures.

History is on Markakis' side.

So by my count, your comp list has:

3 greats;

11 good-very goods;

5 washouts (I'm putting May and Howell in this category too -- you didn't account for either);

1 incomplete (Peralta).

My list had a rough frequency distribution of 6 - 6 - 8.

So in both my analysis and yours, there are more washouts than greats, and the greats comprise only a small fraction of the total (3 of 19, 16% in your analysis; 6 of 20, 30% in mine).

Clearly, history is not on Markakis' side in terms of projecting greatness.

I trust, then, that you'll agree with my assertion that those that are making the leap from "could be great" to "will be great" (or even "will likely be great") are setting themselves up for disappointment.

[Matt]

Markakis has had the following lines vs.

Only Coggins, Felix, maybe Carey could be counted as washouts or failures.

Anyone have any information on what happened with Junior Felix? His final season in MLB -- his age 26 season -- was very good. He had an .897 OPS in 301 at-bats for the Detroit Tigers.

[DrungoHazewood]

So by my count, your comp list has:

3 greats;

11 good-very goods;

5 washouts (I'm putting May and Howell in this category too -- you didn't account for either);

1 incomplete (Peralta).

My list had a rough frequency distribution of 6 - 6 - 8.

So in both my analysis and yours, there are more washouts than greats, and the greats comprise only a small fraction of the total (3 of 19, 16% in your analysis; 6 of 20, 30% in mine).

Clearly, history is not on Markakis' side in terms of projecting greatness.

I trust, then, that you'll agree with my assertion that those that are making the leap from "could be great" to "will be great" (or even "will likely be great") are setting themselves up for disappointment.

So maybe greatness is too stong a word. But the list has an average of 5647 major league at bats. There have only been about 500 players in all of major league history with 5647 at bats. I'll be quite happy if Nick has one of the 500 best careers by a position player in major league history. There are Hall of Famers with worse.

[DrungoHazewood]

Anyone have any information on what happened with Junior Felix? His final season in MLB -- his age 26 season -- was very good. He had an .897 OPS in 301 at-bats for the Detroit Tigers.

Not really, but I seem to remember rumours that he was older than his listed age. I also think I remember him playing in Mexico for a while. But I don't have any hard facts to link to.

[davearm]

And the average number of all star selections was 3.2.

If you want to put the O/U at 3.2, I'll take the under.

And using your comps, I'll win that bet 13 of the 19 times.

From your list of 19:

6 had zero ASG appearances;

3 had one ASG appearance;

4 had two ASG appearances;

6 had three or more ASG appearances.

Looks to me like the O/U should be set at 1.5.

[davearm]

So maybe greatness is too stong a word. But the list has an average of 5647 major league at bats. There have only been about 500 players in all of major league history with 5647 at bats. I'll be quite happy if Nick has one of the 500 best careers by a position player in major league history. There are Hall of Famers with worse.

Well if you look at my original post @ #52, and followup @ #55, you'll see that in a very rough way, using comp list I used from BP suggests Markakis' average career would come out at 1623 games.

An average of 1623 games puts him pretty much right on top of your average of 5647 ABs... that shakes out to 3.48 AB/G.

[Fan4Life]

I'm saying that.

Markakis is a talented young player who in time could be great.

Those that are making the leap from "could be great" to "will be great" (or even "will likely be great") are setting themselves up for disappointment -- as the very existence of this thread proves.

I wonder where Vegas would put the over/under for career ASG appearances for Markakis.

1?

2?

At any rate, it'd be a lot lower than many folks seem willing to consider.

My comments are more directed at is low performance to date this season which doesn't draw any conclusion about what he may or may not be in the future. But you could be correct in that his current performance is likely what we should be expecting.. I presume that's a fair conclusion of your remarks..

[Flosman]

I think it would be fair to say it is far, far more likely that Nick becomes a great player than the likelihood that all but a few 23 YO professional baseball players become great. His likelihood of becoming a great player is much greater than the pool of Grade A 23 YO players in the minors. This is because the obviously has the tools and is having moderate success already in the Majors. Obviously he can still go either way but it is more likely that he ends up being a better than average player than not and it is a decent bet (as decent has you get with young players) that he has an exceptional career.

[Fan4Life]

I think it would be fair to say it is far, far more likely that Nick becomes a great player than the likelihood that all but a few 23 YO professional baseball players become great. His likelihood of becoming a great player is much greater than the pool of Grade A 23 YO players in the minors. This is because the obviously has the tools and is having moderate success already in the Majors. Obviously he can still go either way but it is more likely that he ends up being a better than average player than not and it is a decent bet (as decent has you get with young players) that he has an exceptional career.

So how long to you wait to see signs of greatness? I can see this same conversation this time next year... is 3 years long enough? 4?

[markakis4pres]

So how long to you wait to see signs of greatness? I can see this same conversation this time next year... is 3 years long enough? 4?

This only his 2 year and his first full year. I think nexy year you can maybe expect a little greatness but then again that still might be too early.

Nick is very young and I think we expeced a little too much from him this early in his career. He was supposed to be a number 2 hitter this year and not a number 3. He doesnt really hit for power all though he could be a 25-30 home run guy.