2009... Adding Two Monster FA's

[RShack]

We'd lose a couple of draft picks (if we finished well, it would be a first and second)...plus we'd still have no SS.

Are you telling me you would refuse to trade a semi-decent SS (if we had one), along with a 2nd round pick and a 3rd round pick, if you could acquire both Tex and Dunn in that trade?

[bird watcher]

I would be willing to bet (relatively) large sums of money that there is zero chance of the Orioles having a $160MM payroll...ever. Nada, zip, zilch.

We don't know how high they are willing to go. Maybe they are willing to go that high if they are competing in a particular year. Playoff profits can be huge for these teams. You can always trade a good player later and turn that money into mega prospects and reduce payroll. How likely would it be that 2 out of three of Dunn, Tex, and CC totally collapse within 4 years? I say not likely.

[nadecir]

You and I agree wholeheartedly that we have the financial resources to do things that many franchises cannot, but we should use that power and sign FA's AFTER we are in a position to be able to handle the loss of picks and are at a point that those FA's would help us for a WS run.

I am interested to see how AM handles this trade deadline and subsequently the off-season. It's always an adventure when you're an Orioles fan.

Those who really believe we are on a financial par that is close to the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs or Dodgers, are not living in the real world. In the real world, we are closer to the Royals and Pirates than the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers or Cubs. Those big market teams can think about outbidding every other teams in the majors for Tex and Dunn. The Orioles have to be much more selective.

In 1995, the Orioles had the second highest payroll in baseball. And they had the second highest revenue in baseball too.

In 2007, the top five teams in revenue in baseball were the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers and Cubs. These five teams were in the top eight in payroll in 2008.

The Orioles rank 18th in the majors in revenue according to Forbes, and 24th in operating income in 2007. The Pirates had a higher operating income than the Orioles last year according to Forbes. We have the 22nd highest payroll in 2008, right in line with our revenues and income.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/33/biz_baseball08_The-Business-Of-Baseball_Revenue.html

Major league team payrolls correspond almost directly to a teams' revenues. We, as fans, should think about this when we toss around names like Teixiera, Dunn and Sabathia. Just outbidding other teams with much higher revenues is a stretch in signing one of these guys to a long term mega-deal, but probably doable. Two of them, I think, is out of the question.

It is really easy for fans to get unrealistic when thinking about signing free agents.

[Sports Guy]

In my estimation, rebuilding is generally defined as initiating a plan that calls for an emphasis on acquiring young talent, via trades of certain veterans and through the wise use of draft choices... with the goal of having the higher level talent in a position to succeed roughly at the same time at the ML level, and adding a strong base of talent at the lower levels behind them.

Losing key draft choices, holding on to certain valuable veterans rather than dealing them, to improve only the ML team is not rebuilding... that is called trying to win now.

We can't sign Tex and Dunn, keep Roberts, Sherrill, Huff et al AND rebuild.

You cannot do both.

You and I agree wholeheartedly that we have the financial resources to do things that many franchises cannot, but we should use that power and sign FA's AFTER we are in a position to be able to handle the loss of picks and are at a point that those FA's would help us for a WS run.

I am interested to see how AM handles this trade deadline and subsequently the off-season. It's always an adventure when you're an Orioles fan.

As usual, Greg is right.

Spending a lot of money, losing draft choices and keeping the vets you have is a formula for saying, let's for it right now!

That isn't rebuilding.

[bird watcher]

Those who really believe we are on a financial par that is close to the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs or Dodgers, are not living in the real world. In the real world, we are closer to the Royals and Pirates than the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers or Cubs. Those big market teams can think about outbidding every other teams in the majors for Tex and Dunn. The Orioles have to be much more selective.

In 1995, the Orioles had the second highest payroll in baseball. And they had the second highest revenue in baseball too.

In 2007, the top five teams in revenue in baseball were the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers and Cubs. These five teams were in the top eight in payroll in 2008.

The Orioles rank 18th in the majors in revenue according to Forbes, and 24th in operating income in 2007. The Pirates had a higher operating income than the Orioles last year according to Forbes. We have the 22nd highest payroll in 2008, right in line with our revenues and income.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/33/biz_baseball08_The-Business-Of-Baseball_Revenue.html

Major league team payrolls correspond almost directly to a teams' revenues. We, as fans, should think about this when we toss around names like Teixiera, Dunn and Sabathia. Just outbidding other teams with much higher revenues is a stretch in signing one of these guys to a long term mega-deal, but probably doable. Two of them, I think, is out of the question.

It is really easy for fans to get unrealistic when thinking about signing free agents.

Contrary to what late night "real estate gurus" will tell you, You have to spend money to make money. If you don't put out a good product then your revenues will suffer. Buying FA is an investment in future revenues. We were once at the top and now we have MASN revenues from TWO teams. They can be at the top again. Money is not the issue here.

[Greg Pappas]

What do you mean? We don't have the bats in the system to rebuild the lineup. We HAVE to go out get bats. we are rebuilding with arms and if you look at my rotation and bullpen, it's certainly rebuilt from within.

I really don't understand the thought process that believes adding impact young bats like Tex and Dunn is not part of the process.

True, we need bats... no doubt about that, getting Dunn and Tex would do wonders for the team, but I guess what I was getting at is if you are keeping Huff, Sherrill & Roberts and adding Tex and Dunn to the lineup then the term 'rebuilding' is different than what I always interpreted it to be.

How would we continue the rebuilding process when we refuse to deal away our quality veterans?

We agree that Dunn and Tex would do wonders for the team, but I think our definitions of rebuilding are different.

[PoorMike]

Are you telling me you would refuse to trade a semi-decent SS (if we had one), along with a 2nd round pick and a 3rd round pick, if you could acquire both Tex and Dunn in that trade?

All I'm saying is that you can't keep all our guys, get Tex and Dunn, AND claim to be rebuilding. That's what the other post said and I agree with it.

We'd still have no SS and we'd be hoping and praying that some of our AA- and AAA starters step up and pitch better in time for the acquisition of Tex and Dunn to actually mean something.

I'm not even saying you can't get FA's and rebuild. I think you can. I don't think you can keep everyone that we have, get two FA's and expect to win big.

[Greg Pappas]

As usual, Greg is right.

Spending a lot of money, losing draft choices and keeping the vets you have is a formula for saying, let's for it right now!

That isn't rebuilding.

Thanks. I think it boils down to Tony and RShack having different views on what rebuilding means.

[Greg Pappas]

I don't see why not.

So, why not? Why can't you?

Not sure who the "et all" part is. Tex and Dunn would likely cost us a 2nd-round and 3rd-round pick.

That's not the end of the world. Most 2nd and 3rd round picks don't amount to much anyway.

That doesn't stop them from getting young kids by various means.

You can sign all the Latino's you want.

You can pick up other kids in every round except the 2nd and 3rd.

You can be smart about Rule V.

You can trade this-kid for that-kid.

You can still get kids. It comes down to picking the right ones and developing them properly.

So, all in all, I don't see why not.

All the things you mentioned are things that all teams try to do, or most. That is running a baseball team, not rebuilding.

I think we can debate this all day, but I honestly think we simply have a different idea on the definition of rebuilding.

[Stotle]

In my estimation, rebuilding is generally defined as initiating a plan that calls for an emphasis on acquiring young talent, via trades of certain veterans and through the wise use of draft choices... with the goal of having the higher level talent in a position to succeed roughly at the same time at the ML level, and adding a strong base of talent at the lower levels behind them.

Losing key draft choices, holding on to certain valuable veterans rather than dealing them, to improve only the ML team is not rebuilding... that is called trying to win now.

We can't sign Tex and Dunn, keep Roberts, Sherrill, Huff et al AND rebuild.

You cannot do both.

You and I agree wholeheartedly that we have the financial resources to do things that many franchises cannot, but we should use that power and sign FA's AFTER we are in a position to be able to handle the loss of picks and are at a point that those FA's would help us for a WS run.

I am interested to see how AM handles this trade deadline and subsequently the off-season. It's always an adventure when you're an Orioles fan.

If you sign Teix and Dunn (or a 2nd Type A player) you by-pass one year of high draft picks. You can make that back (plus some) the following off-season when you let Roberts and Huff walk, along with Bradford/Walker. Further, you can grab more comp picks by targeting potential Type A's and B's available in their walk year and trade for them to further help your team for the '09 season and the '10 draft (this is what MIL and SDN did last year and accumulated a ton of early picks).

The counter argument is that you'd have to give up prospects in order to trade for the Type A/B guys, so you'd be essentially trading prospects for draft picks. This is true as a statement of fact, but irrelevant as a practical matter. Baltimore will have a 40-man crunch, especially with regards to their young arms. You should be able to move some young AAA/ML talent to make room for some of the higher-ceiling guys currently at Frederick and Bowie -- truth is you'll have to or expose some of them to he Rule 5. THat means you're clearing out some of the upper-level MiL talent to make room for the AA guys and continuing to re-stock your LoMiL teams through the draft.

So the long and short of it, as I see it, is that taking Dunn and Teix would not put off "rebuilding" at all. The key is to maximiaze draft picks through all avenues so that when you lose some due to FA signings, you aren't crippled long term.

[Sports Guy]

Thanks. I think it boils down to Tony and RShack having different views on what rebuilding means.

And really, who cares what Rshack has to say anyway?

I get what Tony is saying...I think what he is advocating is a halfway rebuild...In other words, rebuild through pitching but spend money on bats and keep what you have.

[Greg Pappas]

If you sign Teix and Dunn (or a 2nd Type A player) you by-pass one year of high draft picks. You can make that back (plus some) the following off-season when you let Roberts and Huff walk, along with Bradford/Walker. Further, you can grab more comp picks by targeting potential Type A's and B's available in their walk year and trade for them to further help your team for the '09 season and the '10 draft (this is what MIL and SDN did last year and accumulated a ton of early picks).

The counter argument is that you'd have to give up prospects in order to trade for the Type A/B guys, so you'd be essentially trading prospects for draft picks. This is true as a statement of fact, but irrelevant as a practical matter. Baltimore will have a 40-man crunch, especially with regards to their young arms. You should be able to move some young AAA/ML talent to make room for some of the higher-ceiling guys currently at Frederick and Bowie -- truth is you'll have to or expose some of them to he Rule 5. THat means you're clearing out some of the upper-level MiL talent to make room for the AA guys and continuing to re-stock your LoMiL teams through the draft.

So the long and short of it, as I see it, is that taking Dunn and Teix would not put off "rebuilding" at all. The key is to maximiaze draft picks through all avenues so that when you lose some due to FA signings, you aren't crippled long term.

Receiving picks for our FA's doesn't make up for losing them for Tex and Dunn... how is that making up for it? That's funny math. If we didn't lose the two picks, wouldn't we have 2 extra in the big picture?

You do make some very good points, and many I agree with, but again, if you're keeping Huff, Sherrill and Roberts, and adding the two bats, thats not rebuilding. It goes against the very essence of what rebuilding means. Doing the things you suggested are things we should be doing anyway, regardless of rebuilding or not, thats just smart baseball management.

It seems silly to debate this, so I apologize if I seem defensive, but again, I think the differences in our definitions of rebuilding are apparent.

[Sports Guy]

No way AM spends the big money on both Dunn and Tex anyway.

However, Greg is right...Losing picks, spending big money and keeping around aging(albeit productive), expensive players isn't rebuilding.

[Stotle]

Receiving picks for our FA's doesn't make up for losing them for Tex and Dunn... how is that making up for it? That's funny math. If we didn't lose the two picks, wouldn't we have 2 extra in the big picture?

You do make some very good points, and many I agree with, but again, if you're keeping Huff, Sherrill and Roberts, and adding the two bats, thats not rebuilding. It goes against the very essence of what rebuilding means. Doing the things you suggested are things we should be doing anyway, regardless of rebuilding or not, thats just smart baseball management.

It seems silly to debate this, so I apologize if I seem defensive, but again, I think the differences in our definitions of rebuilding are apparent.

Yeah, my point is really that you can rebuild your MiL system without sacrificing the utilization of veterans and FA. Both Boston and New York have built top 5 systems over the last 4-5 years while consistently targeting key veterans via FA and trades, all while selecting towards the bottom of each round in the Rule 4.

BAL should be able to go after the likes of Teix and Dunn without sacrificing making strides in their MiL.

As always, interesting discussion.

[RShack]

Thanks. I think it boils down to Tony and RShack having different views on what rebuilding means.

OK, then... Tag Team! ;-)

What about giving up a 2nd and 3rd round draft pick to get both Tex and Dunn is a bad idea?

Now, I know lots of folks here like trades, so let's pretend it's a trade and maybe you'll like it better ;-)

Let's pretend some other team has both Tex and Dunn, and that it's legal to trade draft picks.

The team that has both of them tells AM that he can have *both* Tex and Dunn in return for a 2nd-round pick and a 3rd-round pick.

You guys would say "Nope, no way, forget it"?

Do I have that right?