Orioles Deal Gausman/O'Day to Braves - Schoop to Brewers

[sportsfan8703]

9 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

So, to recap (hope I didn't miss anything):

For Gausman we received--

• 2.5 million in International Slot $
• 20-year old 3B Jean Carlos Encarnacion, R/R, 6'3 195
• 23-year old Catcher Brett Cumberland, S/R, 5'11 205, Draft: 2016, Braves, 2nd rd. (76th overall) College: California
• 23-year old LHSP Bruce Zimmerman, L/L, 6'3 215, Draft: 2017, Braves, 5th rd. College: Mt. Olive & Towson U. (Born in Baltimore, MD) Here's an interesting read on him
• 23-year old RHRP Evan Phillips, R/R 6'2 215, Draft: 2015 Braves 17th rd., College: UNC Wilmington (Born in Salisbury, MD)

 

For Schoop we received--

• 22-year old RHSP Luis Ortiz, R/R, 6'3 230, Draft: 2014 Rangers 1st rd. (30th overall) Sanger HS (CA)
• 18-year old SS Jean Carmona, S/R, 6'1 183, Signed out of the Dominican Repulublic
• 27-year old Inf. Jonathan Villar, R/R, 6'1 215, Signed out of the Dominican Repulublic

To rank them in our system on the fly,

Victor Victor Mesa 1

Ortiz 8-10

Carmona/Encarnacion 11-15

Cumberland 20-25

Zimmerman 30

 

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So Archer landed Meadow AND Glasnow. Both highly touted prospects. You're telling me Gausman isn't good enough to land at least an equivalent of one of those players? 

Yep.

Gausman isn't that good.  We'd like him to be and we have a big fear of trading someone with a big fastball turning into the next Arietta.  But I don't believe the market was that great for him and getting 4 guys is the best we can do.

Check Archer's FIP and then look at Gausman's.  Archer is a 200 inning guy, Gausman isn't.  

[Reboulet'sStache]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

There's no proof that having O'Day not included would have made the trade better.   That's what he'd like to believe, but there's no proof that it's the case.

 

Walk me through the logic of this?  

You're saying the return we got for Gausman is what we would have gotten.  Then we asked the Braves if they would also take O'Day, and the Braves said, "Yeah, we're feeling generous.  Throw him in too."  

The Orioles would have to give consideration for the Braves taking O'Day.  There's no other way to look at it. 

[Gofannon]

I mean, it's obvious that we received a lesser package because of O'Day's inclusion, isn't it?  Do we really think the package got better once O'Day was included?

[esmd]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

So if I understand you correctly you're upset that:

We traded a pitcher we all overvalued and who most likely wasn't going to reach his full potential in Baltimore and a broken, expensive reliever for:

2.5 million in international money

4 prospects

And why is this bad?

Man, are you being intentionally obtuse?  It's really not that hard to understand what he's saying.  No O'Day in deal = better prospect return.  Better prospect return = faster and better rebuild.  Faster and better rebuild = return to winning faster.  Having O'Day on the team next year wouldn't have made us better or worse.  You just let him play out his deal like Trumbo and then move on.

[Rojo13]

33 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Gausman is making $5.6m this year. He probably gets $7-8m next year and $10-$12m the following in arbitration.

So basically ~19-22m saved. Gausman is probably a 3-4 WAR guy per year. So the Braves are getting something like 7-10 WAR. Plenty of surplus value with what he'll earn.

Those players coming back from the Braves just doesn't add up.

3-4 WAR per year? How do you come up with that? He was 2.1 in 2014, 1.5 in 2015, 3.0 in 2016, 2.5 in 2017 and 1.3 this year (so that project out to 2.0). So for the last 5 years, he's averaged 2.08 WAR.

Have you ever watched Gausman pitch? He still can't consistently throw a fastball away to a right handed batter.

[ChuckS]

7 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

What? Lol.

JCE and Cumberland def are.

Maybe in the 15-20 range for JCE.  He's got serious plate discipline issues.  

Cumberland is a 23 year old bat first catcher who spent most of the year hitting .236 at High A.  Just promoted to Double A. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

There's no proof that having O'Day not included would have made the trade better.   That's what he'd like to believe, but there's no proof that it's the case.

In other words:

Gausman to the Braves for good prospects

Gausman and O'Day to the Braves for not as good prospects

Keep in mind as of earlier this afternoon there were two other suitors for Gausman. That was widely reported.  The Braves weren't the only team to tango with.

So DD intentionally took worse prospects from the Braves in order to get rid of O'Day?  I find it hard to believe and wildly speculative.  

They are shedding over 10M in salary with O'Day's contact.

At least some of that 10M was accounted for in the return.

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Then you hold off and trade him after the season. I said all along they should trade Gausman and Schoop IF they get the right offer. It wasn't a Machado / Britton situation where they had to be traded now. 

Villar is making 2.5M this year. Under control for 2 more years.  

[ISU94]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

To rank them in our system on the fly,

Victor Victor Mesa 1

Ortiz 8-10

Carmona/Encarnacion 11-15

Cumberland 20-25

Zimmerman 30

 

Cumberland was a top 150 guy prior to the season. That'd be surprising if he's that low.

[xian4]

So we had a deal with the Braves for Gausman that gave us a top 10 prospect from the Braves. Does anyone really think we turned that down to shed O'Day's salary. Makes no sense at all.

[Rene88]

Not a huge fan of Braves deal but I tho k we all are collectively underestimating the value of the market on international slots right now.

Having said that, he better get the big fish or it may cost DD his job.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

They are shedding over 10M in salary with O'Day's contact.

At least some of that 10M was accounted for in the return.

Nothing is free.  

[Yardball85]

I like Matt K, and if he thinks we did well, I feel a bit better.  The Schoop trade excites me.  He's a good player but he's been on fire lately, and I think that helped us get Carmona and Ortiz.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

Ernie Grunfeld is owed an apology.

It'll be a cold day in Ecuador when I apologize to Grunfeld!