Grade the Gausman Deal

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I know what FIP is but I don't know its limitations or its reliability.   When is it wrong and when it is right?  I have found so far that most advanced stats don't tell the whole story and at times are misleading.   I am sure there are dozens of guys on the OH the argue FIP with you.  I am just not one of them.

Well, it's wrong when you're looking to prop up a pro-Gausman argument.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well, it's wrong when you're looking to prop up a pro-Gausman argument.

I added a point after you posted.  Just because a pitcher is not a high strikeout pitcher does that make him a bad pitcher?

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I added a point after you posted.  Just because a pitcher is not a high strikeout pitcher does that make him a bad pitcher?

In this day and age?  Kinda.

But with Gausman's stuff, he should be a a high strikeout pitcher.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I added a point after you posted.  Just because a pitcher is not a high strikeout pitcher does that make him a bad pitcher?

It is rather rare for a pitcher with a significantly lower than league average K rate to be successful in the current game for any length of time.

[weams]

3 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

 

Believe it or not, I wish him well there.

 

So do I. 

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

In this day and age?  Kinda.

But with Gausman's stuff, he should be a a high strikeout pitcher.

No trickery. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I don't understand what point you are driving at.  My point is that when supported but a good offense, defense and pen as he was in 2014 and 2016 Gausman showed he was a good pitcher.   In 2017 and 2018 when the offense, defense and pen were worse it affect his numbers and made him look worse but in fact he may have been the same good pitcher, he just had worse support.

You are throwing a lot of numbers at me but I am not sure what you are trying to prove.

The  pen decline is not only about wins and loses record.  Its also about ERA.  Gausman leaves two runs on base in a inning that he is pulled.   The pen comes in and lets those two runners score.  Its added to his ERA.  That was not happening as much in 2014 and 2016 because the pen was better back then. 

The part I’m not getting is what the offense and bullpen have to do with Gausman being a good pitcher.    For what it’s worth, Gausman bequeathed 18 baserunners to the bullpen this year in Baltimore, and only two of them scored.   That’s excellent, and so if anything, the bullpen kept Gausman’s ERA from being worse than it was.

Defense, you can argue.    Gausman's FIP was higher than his  ERA; his xFIP was lower (in both cases, the difference wasn’t very much).  My overall point is that really good pitchers don’t allow 1.5 homers per 9 innings, and that has nothing to do with fielding.   

So, I wish Gausman success in Atlanta, but it will take at least a full year of markedly better results for me to conclude that there’s any real difference in his pitching.   

[Tryptamine]

I keep thinking back to what may have been if  Kris Bryant doesn't retweak his shoulder and have to go to the DL for an extended time. Davide Bote was being dangled to a numbers of teams, but when Bryant went down the Cubs had to keep him to fill in. Not sure what it would have looked like, but I don't think it's  unrealistic that Bote would have been an Oriole as the Cubs were interested in Gausman.

[Bradysburns]

9 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Its 50-50.

He will either win the Cy Young or blow his elbow and need TJ and be out 18 months,.

At least we've narrowed it down to two options. But that sounds about right. I lean toward the "KG is going to be very, very good and we should have gotten more" side. I understand the frustration and that people have given up on him becoming a TOR starter. But I was disappointed that we didn't receive a top-10 prospect.

That said, Encarnacion looks very promising. He could be a sleeper. I guess we shall see. 

 

[Redskins Rick]

12 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

In this day and age?  Kinda.

But with Gausman's stuff, he should be a a high strikeout pitcher.

I agree, when your stuff is hyped to be TOR stuff, then usually you expect that person to have an assortment of pitches they can throw for strikes and be a high strikeout artist.

[Redskins Rick]

7 hours ago, Bradysburns said:

At least we've narrowed it down to two options. But that sounds about right. I lean toward the "KG is going to be very, very good and we should have gotten more" side. I understand the frustration and that people have given up on him becoming a TOR starter. But I was disappointed that we didn't receive a top-10 prospect.

That said, Encarnacion looks very promising. He could be a sleeper. I guess we shall see. 

 

I think the Orioles gave up on him, achieving what he could be. But, thats just my own opinion.

[Ohfan67]

I hope Gausman has a great career. I hope he pitches better. I think he’s who he is and will have a good career, but I would enjoy seeing him improve. No hard feelings now that he’s an ex-Oriole. 

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I hope Gausman has a great career. I hope he pitches better. I think he’s who he is and will have a good career, but I would enjoy seeing him improve. No hard feelings now that he’s an ex-Oriole. 

For me it’s not an issue of hard feelings.   But it bothers us when pitchers who spent a long time with us leave and then dramatically improve when they go elsewhere, because it suggests that there’s something wrong with the way that we develop, coach and manage pitchers. 

Frankly, I think the topic tends to get a little bit overblown.    Many of the guys who left here who have been the topic of this type of discussion had very temporary success and then fell off the map. But Arrieta is a big, gaping wound and we see everything through that prism.   

[Bradysburns]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

For me it’s not an issue of hard feelings.   But it bothers us when pitchers who spent a long time with us leave and then dramatically improve when they go elsewhere, because it suggests that there’s something wrong with the way that we develop, coach and manage pitchers. 

Frankly, I think the topic tends to get a little bit overblown.    Many of the guys who left here who have been the topic of this type of discussion had very temporary success and then fell off the map. But Arrieta is a big, gaping wound and we see everything through that prism.   

It certainly does suggest that. And it goes back over a decade now, easily. I can remember just about every over-hyped pitching prospect going back to Mike Paradis and before. 

That's the other part of the equation. We've spent so many of our earlier picks on pitchers over the years... and gotten essentially nothing back in return (other than replacement-level performance or thereabouts, and that's in cases that "worked out"). 

I suspect it's a general problem from top to bottom: poor scouting, poor development. Maybe we'll see that changing with the next phase... hopefully starting with GrayRod. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Bradysburns said:

It certainly does suggest that. And it goes back over a decade now, easily. I can remember just about every over-hyped pitching prospect going back to Mike Paradis and before. 

That's the other part of the equation. We've spent so many of our earlier picks on pitchers over the years... and gotten essentially nothing back in return (other than replacement-level performance or thereabouts, and that's in cases that "worked out"). 

I suspect it's a general problem from top to bottom: poor scouting, poor development. Maybe we'll see that changing with the next phase... hopefully starting with GrayRod. 

Hopefully starting before GrayRod.   I think DL Hall is the Next Great Hope.    2.24 ERA and K/9 over 9 at age 19 at Delmarva.    I think Akin and Lowther might be solid contributors to our rotation, too, debuting over the next year or two before Hall arrives.