Grade the Gausman Deal

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Keep in mind that a big chunk (I believe 10M?) of Davis' money is deferred.

Its actually more than that:

Deferred

Minus 4.5m deferred from Cobb

Minus 6m deferred from Davis

Minus 1m deferred from O’Day

Minus 1.5m deferred from Trumbo

Minus 1.5 deferred  from Cashner

14.5m total deferred

[Ruzious]

42 minutes ago, 99ct said:

Yeah, fair enough, but how do you reconcile that with the fact that he just got an MLB start, despite being younger than most (or all?) of the dudes on your list? To me, his promotion is evidence that he was not, in fact, the 8th man down, as you believe.  

From following the prospects closely - and the fact that he started out the season in Single A ball - while they had 2 20 year old starting pitchers start the season in AAA and 1 in the majors.  If you'll notice, those other 8 pitchers are all very good to outstanding prospects - the best group in baseball.  Point being, the Braves could have afforded to trade someone like Wilson, and there's still a reasonable chance he won't be in their rotation next year or the year after because they have so much talented depth.  

[Hallas]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

OMG GAUSMAN TONITE!!  I HOPE HE DOES WELL SO I CAN BLAST THE ORIOLES FOR MAKING A BAD TRADE!!!

Tell me this isn't the thought process among some posters here.

You left out !!!1!1one

[Frobby]

47 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I believe most MLB clubs operate this way. Attendance is not what makes them profitable.

Attendance isn’t the only source of revenue, but it’s a major source.    In 2017 gate receipts were $54 mm of $252 mm in total revenue for the O’s.    

[MurphDogg]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Attendance isn’t the only source of revenue, but it’s a major source.    In 2017 gate receipts were $54 mm of $252 mm in total revenue for the O’s.    

According to whose books?

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, 99ct said:

Yeah, fair enough, but how do you reconcile that with the fact that he just got an MLB start, despite being younger than most (or all?) of the dudes on your list? To me, his promotion is evidence that he was not, in fact, the 8th man down, as you believe.  

Promotions are a terrible way to judge prospect status/level. Just look at who the Orioles promote to make scratch starts, etc. Geez, they promoted Jeff Fiorentino in 2005 from Frederick to play a few games in the outfield...and that definitely wasn't because he was the top prospect in the system. Teams do weird things regarding promotions and they are often most conservative with some of the better prospects, especially now that teams think about service time issues. 

[Ohfan67]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Actually, the Bud Norris trade is a pretty good comp for the Gausman trade.   Norris had 2+ years of control remaining, same as Gausman.   He had a 4.33 career ERA (91 ERA+) in 689.2 IP.   He was having a good year at the time of the trade, 3.87 ERA, 103 ERA+.    He also was already under contract through 2015, at $3 mm (1/3 paid by the Orioles), $5.3 mm and $8.8 mm.   Gausman had a 4.22 ERA (100 ERA+) in 763.2 career innings, and this year was at 4.43 (95).   He is being paid $5.6 mm this year ($1.9 mm by Atlanta), and we can assume he’ll be significantly more expensive than Norris over the next two years.

Norris netted LJ Hoes (one of our top 5 prospects, fully baked, but not a top 100 guy by any means), Josh Hader (having a very good season at Delmarva at 19, probably considered a top 10 guy in our system but not top 5 at that point), and a 1st round supplemental pick that turned out to be the no. 37 pick.   

So, putting aside the hindsight on Hader, how good was that package compared to what the O’s got for Gausman?    I’d say they’re very similar, not knowing how Encarnacion etc. will turn out.   Gausman is probably considered to be a bit better than Norris, and I’d say the package we got was a bit better, too (again, setting aside how Hader has turned out and just considering what he was at the time).    

The comparison to Bud Norris is painful. Painful because I want to defend Gausman and tell you that you are crazy, but a hard look at the numbers paints a harsh portrait of Gausman. He's much closer to being Bud Norris than I wanted to believe. Gausman has pitched 780+ innings in the bigs and is sporting a 100 ERA+. That kind of says it all. He's an average pitcher by almost all measures. The radar gun says he should be better, but the results speak for themselves. 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

According to whose books?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/196638/revenue-of-the-baltimore-orioles-since-2006/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/294164/baltimore-orioles-gate-receipts/

I believe both of these are close to what Forbes has reported.   

[NCRaven]

33 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Promotions are a terrible way to judge prospect status/level...  Geez, they promoted Jeff Fiorentino in 2005 from Frederick to play a few games in the outfield...

Don't go there!

[Bradysburns]

6 hours ago, Ruzious said:

I'm a Braves fan, and I've been following their minor leagues very closely for years, so I'm not talking out of my ass.

These are starting pitching prospects that were ahead of Wilson at the time of the trade:

Touki Toussaint

Kolby Allard

Mike Soroka

Ian Anderson

Kyle Wright

Luis Gohara

Joey Wentz

Max Fried - maybe not technically a rookie, but he's played most of the season in the minors, and they are still very high on him.  

That's 8 young guys that were not in the Braves rotation rated ahead of Wilson, and some would have put Kyle Muller up there with Wilson.  And if they had signed their high 1st rounder - Carter Stewart - he likely would have been rated up there, as well.  Instead, they get the 9th pick in next year's draft.  The Braves have the best group of young pitchers that any organization in baseball has - maybe the best they've ever had - and they once had Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery.  

If anyone says they expected Wilson to pitch in the majors this early, they're lying.  The Braves were and are in a pennant race, and Gausman was a huge get for them for which they gave up basically nothing of value to them.  And they have him for 2 more years - so this was no rental move for them like a lot of the trades before the deadline were.  And that's a major reason why the trade package should have been much bigger than it was, imo.          

But I thought Gausman sucked? I thought he was replacement level?

I guess the idiotic Braves organization doesn't know how to evaluate pitchers like we do. 

[wildcard]

Here is a guess of the O's revenue sources

54m  Attendance

48m National TV contract

46m Masn

32m Sponsorships

20m Concession

24m MLBAM

18m Licensing

10m other

252 total

[Cumberbundy]

11 hours ago, Ruzious said:

I'm a Braves fan, and I've been following their minor leagues very closely for years, so I'm not talking out of my ass.

These are starting pitching prospects that were ahead of Wilson at the time of the trade:

Touki Toussaint

Kolby Allard

Mike Soroka

Ian Anderson

Kyle Wright

Luis Gohara

Joey Wentz

Max Fried - maybe not technically a rookie, but he's played most of the season in the minors, and they are still very high on him.  

That's 8 young guys that were not in the Braves rotation rated ahead of Wilson, and some would have put Kyle Muller up there with Wilson.  And if they had signed their high 1st rounder - Carter Stewart - he likely would have been rated up there, as well.  Instead, they get the 9th pick in next year's draft.  The Braves have the best group of young pitchers that any organization in baseball has - maybe the best they've ever had - and they once had Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery.  

If anyone says they expected Wilson to pitch in the majors this early, they're lying.  The Braves were and are in a pennant race, and Gausman was a huge get for them for which they gave up basically nothing of value to them.  And they have him for 2 more years - so this was no rental move for them like a lot of the trades before the deadline were.  And that's a major reason why the trade package should have been much bigger than it was, imo.          

Duq got fleeced.

 

[tntoriole]

Gausman benefitting greatly from being in NL...good for him.  We shall see how it looks in two years.  

[Finisher]

More like he escaped pitching purgatory where goofs actively hurt starting pitchers.

[tntoriole]

1 minute ago, Finisher said:

More like he escaped pitching purgatory where goofs actively hurt starting pitchers.

Yes, and facing a guy that absolutely can’t hit every 9th batter up doesn’t hurt much either.