Grade the Gausman Deal

[Flacco Machado]

Man. 8ip 0 runs tonight. 

On a night when Harvey is hurt and Bundy continues to suck.

 

[24fps]

Except for the sixth inning and to a lesser extent the seventh, Gausman super solid tonight.  

[TonySoprano]

2.0 ERA (6 ER in 27 IP) for Atlanta.   3-1 in 4 GS for those that count W/L (5 win in 22 GS for the O's).

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, Flacco Machado said:

Man. 8ip 0 runs tonight. 

On a night when Harvey is hurt and Bundy continues to suck.

 

We have to sign VVM or this is a disaster. 

[hoosiers]

11 hours ago, wildcard said:

There is probably little need to do a salary dump on O'Day and Gausman.  Just look at next years salary

Davis 23m

Trumbo 13.5m

Cashner 9.5m   (Probably traded at the deadline lower the salary to 6.5m)

Villar 4m

Bundy 5m ( Could be traded.  If they traded Gausman there is little reason to keep Bundy)

And   20 players at 545K = 10.9m

So that is somewhere between 58m and 66m.   There is room there for another 9m for O'day that could be 6m if he traded at the deadline.

Heck between the money the O's get from the MLB and the money they get from MASN included in cable contracts they would not need any attendance at all to break even.

This seems like a waste of time because discussing the above with you is likely to be futile.  

First, I see the benefit of shedding O'Day - that's $9M coming back on-line - a large $ amount.  It also opens up O'Day's 40 roster spot.

Second, your analysis is missing some big $ - particularly Alex Cobb and his $14M per year - not sure what is deferred if any.  Givens will be arb1, I believe.  Gausman gets a pay raise.  Add in O'Day and his $9M and one gets close to $100M without deferrals - for a likely 100 loss team. 

Third, I believe our revenues will be lower due to lower attendance by 25% in 2018 from 2017 - which will also hurt concessions.  Sponsorships may be hurt. 

Four, DD has hinted ownership is prepared to invest heavily to increase international scouting infrastructure, to increase international spend (by $8M) and a likely higher draft pool by a couple $M, and improved internal technology.

Five, it would not surprise me if a prudent advisor recommended we should start putting away some of the deferred $ from cash flow or start paying back the loan to PA by $5M -$10M per year.

I don't think the Os are going to cry poverty next year, but I think the cash flow to accomplish the above is a bit tighter than one would think and the best way to insure most of the investments can be made is by shedding payroll.

[baltfan]

This deal may end up being th deal that seals DD’s fate.  I know he was told to cut payroll,  but no one liked this deal or thought it was fair even with them taking O’Day’s salary. 

[Luke-OH]

How good or bad Gausman is in Atlanta shouldn’t have any effect on the assessment of the trade.

Maybe an indictment of the McDowell or player development, but Gausman didn’t just develop overnight on the flight to Georgia. Maybe they are calling pitches with a different strategy or a different pitch mix. Maybe Gausman is just pitching better in a more optimistic clubhouse situation. Maybe it’s a more pitcher friendly park, NL competition, and pitchers batting. Maybe it’s a good group of starts. 

[InsideCoroner]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

How good or bad Gausman is in Atlanta shouldn’t have any effect on the assessment of the trade.

Maybe an indictment of the McDowell or player development, but Gausman didn’t just develop overnight on the flight to Georgia. Maybe they are calling pitches with a different strategy or a different pitch mix. Maybe Gausman is just pitching better in a more optimistic clubhouse situation. Maybe it’s a more pitcher friendly park, NL competition, and pitchers batting. Maybe it’s a good group of starts. 

What I find annoying/troubling is that, under advice from his new team after a loss in his first start for Atlanta, Gausman has ditched his wind-up and is pitching exclusively from the stretch. He says it’s kept him from flying open and allows him better command of his fastball and slider.

It’s only three starts since then (all wins, 3 ER in 22 IP), so SSS, but please don’t tell me something that simple might be the answer.

[POR]

19 hours ago, Ruzious said:

I'm a Braves fan, and I've been following their minor leagues very closely for years, so I'm not talking out of my ass.

These are starting pitching prospects that were ahead of Wilson at the time of the trade:

Touki Toussaint

Kolby Allard

Mike Soroka

Ian Anderson

Kyle Wright

Luis Gohara

Joey Wentz

Max Fried - maybe not technically a rookie, but he's played most of the season in the minors, and they are still very high on him.  

That's 8 young guys that were not in the Braves rotation rated ahead of Wilson, and some would have put Kyle Muller up there with Wilson.  And if they had signed their high 1st rounder - Carter Stewart - he likely would have been rated up there, as well.  Instead, they get the 9th pick in next year's draft.  The Braves have the best group of young pitchers that any organization in baseball has - maybe the best they've ever had - and they once had Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery.  

If anyone says they expected Wilson to pitch in the majors this early, they're lying.  The Braves were and are in a pennant race, and Gausman was a huge get for them for which they gave up basically nothing of value to them.  And they have him for 2 more years - so this was no rental move for them like a lot of the trades before the deadline were.  And that's a major reason why the trade package should have been much bigger than it was, imo.          

Yes the Braves have a lot of pitching prospects. No he was not below all these other pitching prospects three weeks ago around the time he was promoted  to AAA at 20 years old.  Pitchers get injured and some prospects don't make it.  The Braves are keeping their top pitching prospects and assuming some will make it and some won't.

I first became familiar with Bryse Wilson from this podcast at the beginning of the year.  Around the 50 minute mark, the prediction is that Wilson is the Braves best pitching prospect by the end of the year.

http://www.inthisleague.com/fantasybaseball/episode-63-prospect-bold-predictions-with-james-anderson-ralph-lifshitz-and-eddy-almaguer/

[Chromehill]

Maybe Gausman is pitching like he has every other year of his career. 

Career WHIP by month:

April               1.512

May               1.482

June              1.433

July               1.345

August          1.216

September   1.193

Gausman pitching well in the second half of the season is not a surprise.  Before everyone jumps off a bridges about being fleeced, really need to see how he pitches next April, May and June too see if he has truly been fixed. 

We also need to keep in mind, Atlanta's defense is certainly better than what the O's have put out there with a DH manning each corner outfield slot and average to below average defenders at each infield position and center field. 

[JR Oriole]

I live in Atlanta and the Braves are my second team, so I am glad to see him pitching well here.  I hope it continues not only for the benefit of the Braves, but also so the Orioles can really try to figure out why we are so bad at developing starting pitching while other teams don't seem to have as many issues. 

If I had a son and he was a starting pitcher, I would never want him signing with Baltimore.  Anybody else would be better.  Now if I had a son who was a pitching coach, then Baltimore would be my first choice....since they will never fire you no matter how bad you are at your job. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

I know, I know, it’s early. But how can we not start feeling like we traded the complete wrong guy at the wrong time? Holy hell. I know it’s reactionary, but since the trade Bundy and Gausman have gone in complete opposite directions. I was still of the mindset that Bundy had more upside and value at the time of the trade. The way Bundy looks now, I would have tried to hang onto the healthy pitcher and not sell low and jumped ship on the broken pitcher and sell high. 

This just sucks. 

[LocoChris]

28 minutes ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

I know, I know, it’s early. But how can we not start feeling like we traded the complete wrong guy at the wrong time? Holy hell. I know it’s reactionary, but since the trade Bundy and Gausman have gone in complete opposite directions. I was still of the mindset that Bundy had more upside and value at the time of the trade. The way Bundy looks now, I would have tried to hang onto the healthy pitcher and not sell low and jumped ship on the broken pitcher and sell high. 

This just sucks. 

Gausman was going to see his numbers improve greatly after 

1. Getting out of the AL East

2. Moving into the NL, to a weak division no less, where the pitchers have to bat 

3. Going to a team with solid defense

O’s should have taken into consideration 1 & 2 on this list and demanded more and if the demand wasn’t met, waited for the winter meetings. It was an inexcusable trade. 

I voted “C” on this poll but have wanted to change that vote to a D for a couple weeks now. Unfortunately, but understandably, we can’t change our votes. 

[tntoriole]

5 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

How good or bad Gausman is in Atlanta shouldn’t have any effect on the assessment of the trade.

Maybe an indictment of the McDowell or player development, but Gausman didn’t just develop overnight on the flight to Georgia. Maybe they are calling pitches with a different strategy or a different pitch mix. Maybe Gausman is just pitching better in a more optimistic clubhouse situation. Maybe it’s a more pitcher friendly park, NL competition, and pitchers batting. Maybe it’s a good group of starts. 

All of the above.  Gausman has had a number of later stretches in the year where he has pitched like this for us.  I do think McDowell needs to go though not necessarily for Gausman issues. 

[atomic]

5 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

How good or bad Gausman is in Atlanta shouldn’t have any effect on the assessment of the trade.

Maybe an indictment of the McDowell or player development, but Gausman didn’t just develop overnight on the flight to Georgia. Maybe they are calling pitches with a different strategy or a different pitch mix. Maybe Gausman is just pitching better in a more optimistic clubhouse situation. Maybe it’s a more pitcher friendly park, NL competition, and pitchers batting. Maybe it’s a good group of starts. 

Yeah it was an absolutely horrible trade even if Gausman continued to pitch like he did for the Orioles.  Glenn Davis trade bad.  If he continued on his 3 WAR pace he was on this season before for the next 2 1/3 years it was a horrific trade.  The fact that he is becoming an ACE is just an indication how bad the Orioles coaching is.  The trade is just showing how awful GM and pro scouts are.  Time to clear house.  Everyone must go.