Q.O.A.J.?

[thezeroes]

8 minutes ago, Morgan423 said:

Adam is on pace for right around 1 WAR this season, give or take a bit. 

His Offensive War is over 2.5 and his defensive WAR drags it down.  Now with him in RF will his D WAR go up to a positive, would that make him a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player???   That certainly would be QO Eligible.

[Satyr3206]

I'll be brief, no.

[Tx Oriole]

36 minutes ago, 99ct said:

There are a lot of good arguments in this thread, and I've almost been convinced to vote no. But I still think this is the last chance for AJ to, reasonably likely, get a three year deal somewhere. I also wouldn't really mind having him aboard next year. I imagine we'll overpay by like 6-8m if he accepts. 

I like AJ. But I voted no. 

[Can_of_corn]

29 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

His Offensive War is over 2.5 and his defensive WAR drags it down.  Now with him in RF will his D WAR go up to a positive, would that make him a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player???   That certainly would be QO Eligible.

We don't know.

A poor centerfielder can be more valuable than an average right fielder.

[Dark Helmet]

Jones isn't a stupid man. He saw the likes of players like Mike Moustakous turning down QO, then struggling to find a team willing to give up a pick for said player. At best, I think AJ would get maybe a 2/20 deal. He can make almost that for 1 year and stay in Baltimore. No way does he turn down a QO.

[theobird]

22 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

Jones isn't a stupid man. He saw the likes of players like Mike Moustakous turning down QO, then struggling to find a team willing to give up a pick for said player. At best, I think AJ would get maybe a 2/20 deal. He can make almost that for 1 year and stay in Baltimore. No way does he turn down a QO.

If you extend a QO for Jones, he takes it. Immediately.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Morgan423 said:

Not really a similar comparison.  Matt Wieters had .8 WAR the season before we offered it, yes... but he also only played about half a season, so he was on pace for about 1.6 to 1.8 WAR over a full season.  Then, Matt Wieters almost made the QO worth it... the value of the QO is usually somewhere around the league average pay for 2.5 WAR, give or take a hair, and he put up just under 2 in 2016.

Adam is on pace for right around 1 WAR this season, give or take a bit.  I don't see him even coming near approaching QO value next year... and if we offered it to him, I bet he'd take it without hesitation.  Much like Wieters 2017, the team would only offer it once... but it would give him and his family a whole year to get everything wrapped up and ready for the next move.  Looking at his motivations, we definitely should not offer it.  

A .711 OPS in 124 games in 2016 was worth the 17 million QO to Wieters?  Please...And his defensive ratings were overvalued in his WAR calculations by not reflecting his nonexistent framing capability.  The QO was a gift to Matt which is why he took it.   I agree that similar offering to Adam would be unwise. 

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Morgan423 said:

Not really a similar comparison.  Matt Wieters had .8 WAR the season before we offered it, yes... but he also only played about half a season, so he was on pace for about 1.6 to 1.8 WAR over a full season.  Then, Matt Wieters almost made the QO worth it... the value of the QO is usually somewhere around the league average pay for 2.5 WAR, give or take a hair, and he put up just under 2 in 2016.

Adam is on pace for right around 1 WAR this season, give or take a bit.  I don't see him even coming near approaching QO value next year... and if we offered it to him, I bet he'd take it without hesitation.  Much like Wieters 2017, the team would only offer it once... but it would give him and his family a whole year to get everything wrapped up and ready for the next move.  Looking at his motivations, we definitely should not offer it.  

 

The best way to look at putting a dollar value on WAR is to think of it as shopping at full retail based on past performance with no guarantee of that performance continuing.  Often there's not even a reasonable expectation.

Fangraphs puts it this way (in part):

Quote

...the best description of the question that the valuation is answering is “how much would you expect to have to pay to replace this performance in free agency if you knew that you were going to get this level of value exactly?”

Why on Earth would the 2019 Orioles want to pay retail for anything?  Your Wieters example perfectly illustrates the problem with using dollar valuations with WAR to guide decision making, especially when you factor in context.  $17.2 million did not need to be spent to pull 2 WAR out of the catcher's spot.  Context really matters; a fully rebuilding team simply doesn't need to spend that kind of money in free agency, they should be looking to generate excess value at every position they can.  Attaching dollar signs to WAR is a wonderful tool for justifying (or explaining away) past irrational business decisions.  IMO that's its best application.

There is really no solid economic basis for bringing back AJ and I fully believe he's aware of that.  There might be an argument based on intangibles and his impact on getting fans to the ballpark, but that calculation wouldn't come anywhere near the cost of honoring a QO.  I'm a big AJ fan and I hope they do bring him back on a reasonable contract, but I don't expect it.  He's a much better fit on a team that needs a veteran presence during their window of contention.

[foxfield]

9 hours ago, thezeroes said:

His Offensive War is over 2.5 and his defensive WAR drags it down.  Now with him in RF will his D WAR go up to a positive, would that make him a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player???   That certainly would be QO Eligible.

 

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

We don't know.

A poor centerfielder can be more valuable than an average right fielder.

So, his offensive WAR number would be entirely different if he put them up as a RF?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

So, his offensive WAR number would be entirely different if he put them up as a RF?

You have to produce more on offense in right than center.

[Barnaby Graves]

20 hours ago, 24fps said:

Yes.  Oh, hell yes.  It's time to demonstrate once and for all that real baseball decisions should exactly reflect how the most successful fantasy GM's do things.

Next year's entire team budget might be 4X the cost of a single QO.  By all means, let's risk that for a lottery ticket that might - MIGHT - pay off in four years time.  It's a no-brainer, because literally no brain would be in evidence if Adam Jones was offered a QO but who cares?.  It's a prospect.  A PROSPECT!.  Has anything in the history of mankind ever fired the imagination and caused the ruin of otherwise sober men than the thought of a toolsy 18(ish) year-old from Latin America?

I'm surprised that a QO isn't slapped on every Actual Major League Baseball Player with a pulse.  It's not like they have any value except to acquire Maybe-Someday Major League Baseball Players and real GM's don't have think about money anyway because the fans deserve better and if you're not competing for a championship, you should be preparing for one and winning isn't everything, it's the only thing and (pant, pant) just win, baby...

Yeah, no brainer.

wait

Is that a yes or

[foxfield]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

You have to produce more on offense in right than center.

Right, so the answer is yes....his offensive WAR would not 2.5 if he had played all of his games in RF.  Sorry.  Sometimes I think I understand WAR, and then sometimes I see an opportunity for guys like you who really seem to get WAR to help those of us who do not.

[24fps]

8 minutes ago, Barnaby Graves said:

wait

Is that a yes or

...or a reflexive response by a reactionary geezer reflecting a sociopathic dislike for real baseball decisions viewed from a fantasy baseball perspective?  Could be that.

[Barnaby Graves]

4 minutes ago, 24fps said:

...or a reflexive response by a reactionary geezer reflecting a sociopathic dislike for real baseball decisions viewed from a fantasy baseball perspective?  Could be that.

[TheOtherRipken]

Im surprised 3 people voted for this. Its not even something that should be considered under any circumstance.