Luke Scott to the Mets?

[backwardsk]

There's no way IMHO that the Mets, in a pennant race, would trade one of their starting pitchers unless they got a star back. Luke Scott is a good, solid player, but not a star. Why would they want Cabrera anyway. They have a big enough headache with the enigmatic Perez.

Yeah, I wouldn't see them moving Pelfrey unless they got someone like Holliday in return.

[Fred Manfraud]

That's one opinion. I don't think they have enough (in the farm system anyway).

It's a fine line here because we have no idea what they would be willing to give up. But I don't think it's realistic to say the Orioles wouldn't trade Scott for Flores, Martinez, one of their two 2008 first round draft picks (yes I know if would have to be PTBNL which isn't realistic in this case) or some combination, let alone all the other players in their system we don't know about.

[McNulty]

That's one opinion. I don't think they have enough (in the farm system anyway).

You are overvaluing Luke big time. Are you trying to suggest they should hold out for the next Matt LaPorta?

Good post.

The bad concerns me. Flores, Carp, and Niese as a starting point? Would that be fair? (I'm not all that interested in trading Scott, by the way, I'm more interested in seeing what he could get in return)

I think Flores, Carp and Niese would be a good haul for us. Niese is rated by BP as their best pitching prospect after the Santana deal.

[Flosman]

No way. We'd have to add in someone else to make that work.

How about Mora?

Being as though we are expanding the deal, just make them add that prospect they have at SS.

[Fred Manfraud]

You are overvaluing Luke big time. Are you trying to suggest they should hold out for the next Matt LaPorta?

Thank you. You said in one sentence what I have been trying to say in several posts.

[McNulty]

It's a fine line here because we have no idea what they would be willing to give up. But I don't think it's realistic to say the Orioles wouldn't trade Scott for Flores, Martinez, one of their two 2008 first round draft picks (yes I know if would have to be PTBNL which isn't realistic in this case) or some combination, let alone all the other players in their system we don't know about.

PTBNL deals must be completed within 6 months (I think). So you couldn't include someone from the draft of 08 just yet.

I would trade Luke for Martinez alone fellas. I don't think the Mets would ever agree to that, much less throw in additional prospects.

Why do I feel like SG?

[McNulty]

Niese has been good so far at AA Binghamton this year:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/N/Jon-Niese.shtml

Again, BP's take on him in March, as the Mets #2 prospect:

Jon Niese, LHP

DOB: 10/27/86

Height/Weight: 6-3/190

Bats/Throws: L/L

Drafted: 7th round, 2005, Defiance Senior HS (OH)

2007 Stats: 4.29 ERA at High-A (134.1-151-31-110)

Year In Review: Suddenly the organization's top pitching prospect after the Santana trade, Niese began last year out of shape, but gained momentum as the season went on, putting up a strong second half.

The Good: Niese's fastball ranges from 88-92 mph, but was consistently sitting in the low 90s in his final outings of the year, and it features good movement. He gets very good shape and spin on his curveball, and his changeup has come leaps and bounds since signing, to the point where it could become a second above-average pitch. His build has drawn some Andy Pettitte comparisons in terms of strength, and he's an aggressive competitor.

The Bad: Niese's fastball is not a knockout pitch, and he often pitches backwards–-using his secondary pitches early in the count. He ran out of gas in 2006 and showed up for spring training last year out of shape, so there are some conditioning issues that need to be addressed.

Fun Fact: Only two Defiance High players have been drafted in the history of the school: Niese, and budding Dodgers star Chad Billingsley.

Perfect World Projection: While Niese lacks star power, he has everything it takes to profile as a good No. 3 starter.

Timetable: Some Mets officials feel that Niese is on the verge of a breakout, and he'll get a big test in 2008 with an assignment to Double-A.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7114

[Fred Manfraud]

He sounds like a taller version of Garrett Olson with maybe a little more potential. If they offered him for Scott, I'd say yes based on his stats and what I've read here.

[backwardsk]

PTBNL deals must be completed within 6 months (I think). So you couldn't include someone from the draft of 08 just yet.

I would trade Luke for Martinez alone fellas. I don't think the Mets would ever agree to that, much less throw in additional prospects.

Why do I feel like SG?

Really? When's Martinez expected to be MLB ready, 2011? We have Luke under control for awhile so there's no pressure to trade him. IMO, it's too big of a gamble to trade him for one piece who is a few years away. Especially when our strength is in the outfield.

[McNulty]

Really? When's Martinez expected to be MLB ready, 2011? We have Luke under control for awhile so there's no pressure to trade him. IMO, it's too big of a gamble to trade him for one piece who is a few years away. Especially when our strength is in the outfield.

He's only 19 and he's holding his own at AA. That's saying something.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Fernando-Martinez.shtml

I don't think the "how far away" argument is all that important here; you buy for a nickel, sell for a dime.

Again, BP:

Fernando Martinez, OF

DOB: 10/10/88

Height/Weight: 6-1/190

Bats/Throws: L/R

Acquired: NDFA, 2005, Dominican Republic

2007 Stats: .111/.200/.333 at Rookie-Level (3 G); .271/.336/.377 at Double-A (60 G)

Year In Review: Martinez is a high-ceiling outfielder, and was holding his own as an 18-year-old in Double-A before finally getting shut down with a hand contusion that was bothering him all year.

The Good: To hit .271 in Double-A when you are as old as most high school seniors is an impressive feat. Martinez has outstanding bat speed and tremendous power potential to go with a rapidly improving approach, and could develop into a middle-of-the-order force if everything falls right. He's a good athlete with average speed and a solid arm.

The Bad: Martinez is far more about what can be at this point. He puts on a show in batting practice, but he's yet to bring his power into game situations. The Mets have rushed him up through the minors, but injuries have limited him to just 139 games over the two years of his career. While he's playing center field now, his range and instincts are well short of what is needed to play the position at the big league level, and he'll move to a corner--likely before he gets to the big leagues.

Fun Fact: In 16 games batting leadoff for Binghamton, Martinez hit .343, compared to a .243 mark when he hit third.

Perfect World Projection: Scouts have varied opinions on Martinez, but there are a good number out there who see him as an impact player when he can stay healthy and develop.

Timetable: Martinez' breakneck pace through the minors will slow down finally in 2008, as he'll likely return to Double-A, but he'll nevertheless likely be the youngest player at the level. A 2009 big-league debut is a distinct possibility.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7114

[EddeeEddee]

There's no way IMHO that the Mets, in a pennant race, would trade one of their starting pitchers unless they got a star back. Luke Scott is a good, solid player, but not a star. Why would they want Cabrera anyway. They have a big enough headache with the enigmatic Perez.

Yeah, you're right. I just looked up Pelfrey's stats. I didn't realize he was pitching THAT well of late. Maine, on the other hand, looks more comparable to Cabrera, though still a bit better.

But if the Mets didn't give up one of their better players, then I'm not sure who they could get since, like everyone has said, they don't have much to offer from their minors outside of Fernando Martinez. Even though Luke Scott is not a star, I can't see the O's giving him up for cheap. They'd be selling low since Scott is in a slump. The Mets should just sign Bonds in my opinion.

[backwardsk]

He's only 19 and he's holding his own at AA. That's saying something.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Fernando-Martinez.shtml

I don't think the "how far away" argument is all that important here; you buy for a nickel, sell for a dime.

Again, BP:

Fernando Martinez, OF

DOB: 10/10/88

Height/Weight: 6-1/190

Bats/Throws: L/R

Acquired: NDFA, 2005, Dominican Republic

2007 Stats: .111/.200/.333 at Rookie-Level (3 G); .271/.336/.377 at Double-A (60 G)

Year In Review: Martinez is a high-ceiling outfielder, and was holding his own as an 18-year-old in Double-A before finally getting shut down with a hand contusion that was bothering him all year.

The Good: To hit .271 in Double-A when you are as old as most high school seniors is an impressive feat. Martinez has outstanding bat speed and tremendous power potential to go with a rapidly improving approach, and could develop into a middle-of-the-order force if everything falls right. He's a good athlete with average speed and a solid arm.

The Bad: Martinez is far more about what can be at this point. He puts on a show in batting practice, but he's yet to bring his power into game situations. The Mets have rushed him up through the minors, but injuries have limited him to just 139 games over the two years of his career. While he's playing center field now, his range and instincts are well short of what is needed to play the position at the big league level, and he'll move to a corner--likely before he gets to the big leagues.

Fun Fact: In 16 games batting leadoff for Binghamton, Martinez hit .343, compared to a .243 mark when he hit third.

Perfect World Projection: Scouts have varied opinions on Martinez, but there are a good number out there who see him as an impact player when he can stay healthy and develop.

Timetable: Martinez' breakneck pace through the minors will slow down finally in 2008, as he'll likely return to Double-A, but he'll nevertheless likely be the youngest player at the level. A 2009 big-league debut is a distinct possibility.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7114

Fair enough. I honestly don't know too much about Martinez, except that he's number 1 on most lists for Mets' prospects. According to your post, it looks like he'll contribute earlier than I originally thought. Sounds like this brief description is saying that there is a wide range of oppinions on his potential. He's listed as a 4 star guy on BP here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7114

Now how does that compare to a guy like Milledge? Was he a 4 star guy too? If we can compare Martinez to Milledge, then I think it's tough to say that I'd trade Scott for him straight up.

Anyway, like you said, the Mets probably wouldn't do it to begin with.

[McNulty]

Fair enough. I honestly don't know too much about Martinez, except that he's number 1 on most lists for Mets' prospects. According to your post, it looks like he'll contribute earlier than I originally thought. Sounds like this brief description is saying that there is a wide range of oppinions on his potential. He's listed as a 4 star guy on BP here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7114

Now how does that compare to a guy like Milledge? Was he a 4 star guy too? If we can compare Martinez to Milledge, then I think it's tough to say that I'd trade Scott for him straight up.

Anyway, like you said, the Mets probably wouldn't do it to begin with.

I'm certainly not close to being an expert on this subject. Stotle would be the guy to ask around here.

[Greg Pappas]

I discussed this just a few days ago in the 'Trade Value: Luke Scott' thread...

The Mets have a need in LF... how about Luke Scott?

The Mets #1 prospect is OF'er Fernando Martinez, who is 19 and holding his own at AA, but I want to focus on a few players that could possibly be had...

AA LHSP Jon Niese> 21 Years Old, Throws Left, 6' 4 -215

103.2 IP... 19 GS, 3.30 ERA, 38 BB's/92 K's, 1.31 WHIP, .252 BAA, 1.60 GO/AO

From BA- pre spring training...

Background: Ohio's first-ever back-to-back state high school player of the year—he attended the same high school as Dodgers righthander Chad Billingsley*—Niese signed with New York after a recruiting call from Hall of Fame catcher Gary Carter. After getting hit hard early in the season, Niese went 4-1, 2.18 with 42 strikeouts in 45 innings over his final eight starts, including six innings of one-hit ball in the high Class A Florida State League playoffs.

Strengths: Niese uses a fastball that sits at 91-92 mph early in games, then attacks hitters with an improved curveball that has become a plus pitch as he has learned to locate it. He has figured out how to throw his changeup with the same arm speed he uses for his fastball, and it has similar sink and tailing action.

Weaknesses: While he has improved his conditioning, Niese remains inconsistent in terms of maintaining his velocity. He's still learning to pitch inside with his fastball and remain aggressive with his changeup. His competitiveness can work against him at times.

AA 1B Nick Evans> 22 Years Old, Bats Right, 6' 3 -210.

296 AB's... .311 BA, 14 HR's, 53 RBI, 26 BB's/64 K's, .365 OBP/.561 SLG/.926 OPS

AA 1B/DH Mike Carp> 22 Years Old, Bats Left, 6' 2 -215

306 AB's... .317 BA, 10 HR's, 48 RBI, 38 BB's/55 K's, .395 OBP/.471 SLG/.865 OPS

Niese would be a great kid to target, as would either of the hitters, though I have a slight preference for Evans.

Your thoughts?

A Niese/Carp or Niese/Evans package is a good starter... it seems. I will look further into their system, but I think Ibanez will be a Met.

[theobird]

I'm certainly not close to being an expert on this subject. Stotle would be the guy to ask around here.

I like Luke Scott, but I would trade him to the Mets for Niese and 1st baseman Nick Evans. I like Evans a touch better than Carp and Niese appears to be a real solid Pitching prospect.

I have always been a Huff supporter. I wanted him when we signed him, and he has been among our best hitters ever since he got here. That said, the Dodgers need him bad. I would trade Huff to them for LaRoche and Ivan Dejesus.