With theeee-uh first pick the Baltimore Orioles select....?

[Luke-OH]

32 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Last MLB child we drafted, hasn't fared so well.

Yeah, Tyler Coolbaugh isn't very good. 

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, Tyler Coolbaugh isn't very good. 

I love Hunter, and really thought he had the makings of something special, and while he can still achieve that, the odds are starting to say otherwise.

[Chito]

18 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Bobby Witt had a long career and baseball fans know him, that said he wasn’t Roger Clemens. 

He certainly had that kind of hype, though. Team USA, 3rd overall pick.

[Chito]

Is this thread title a Tagliabue reference? Seems like I remember him doing that "theee-uh" thing with every pick he announced. 

The way Bud Selig said "draft" was pretty upsetting, IIRC.

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Chito said:

He certainly had that kind of hype, though. Team USA, 3rd overall pick.

I am old enough to remember his rookie card. 

I hope his son is the best. Nothing like a SS to build around.  

[webbrick2010]

I'm opposed to picking a catcher even if they are hype as the next Wieters but you know actually good.

Seems it is very hard to predict the development of a catcher, and even the best are guys you really only want to start for 120 games a year due to the physical toll of catching.

 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

I'm opposed to picking a catcher even if they are hype as the next Wieters but you know actually good.

Seems it is very hard to predict the development of a catcher, and even the best are guys you really only want to start for 120 games a year due to the physical toll of catching.

 

What makes you think it’s harder to predict development of a catcher than other positions?    I’d need to see some evidence about that.   

[webbrick2010]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

What makes you think it’s harder to predict development of a catcher than other positions?    I’d need to see some evidence about that.   

Not so much that its harder to predict but that there are far less high impact bats at catcher, and catchers aren't like to play as many games as any other position, so not priority on a team that basically needs 9 new starters

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

Not so much that its harder to predict but that there are far less high impact bats at catcher, and catchers aren't like to play as many games as any other position, so not priority on a team that basically needs 9 new starters

Good luck getting more than 70 starts out of a pitcher in this day and age.

[webbrick2010]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Good luck getting more than 70 starts out of a pitcher in this day and age. 

Uh I meant the 7 other pitchers besides catcher and pitcher

I don't see anyone on the O's 40 man roster that would likely be a starter on a championship team, certainly no all stars

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, webbrick2010 said:

Uh I meant the 7 other pitchers besides catcher and pitcher

I don't see anyone on the O's 40 man roster that would likely be a starter on a championship team, certainly no all stars

I guarantee you they will have an all star level player next year. 

[webbrick2010]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I guarantee you they will have an all star level player next year. 

well an all star participant anyhow

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

well an all star participant anyhow

If they are an all star than whatever level they play at is an all star level. 

I think it's going to be a few years before they get more than the pity participant.

[atomic]

So if you draft a high school guy #1 overall.  You don't draft him until next year and then probably another 3 seasons is the minimum time in the minors. Like if everything goes right like Carlos Correa that is.  I think you have to pick a college player over the high school guy when you are picking #1 overall if things are close.  Lot of the college guys are up the year after being picked.  

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

I'm opposed to picking a catcher even if they are hype as the next Wieters but you know actually good.

Seems it is very hard to predict the development of a catcher, and even the best are guys you really only want to start for 120 games a year due to the physical toll of catching.

 

 

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What makes you think it’s harder to predict development of a catcher than other positions?    I’d need to see some evidence about that.   

 

11 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Not so much that its harder to predict but that there are far less high impact bats at catcher, and catchers aren't like to play as many games as any other position, so not priority on a team that basically needs 9 new starters

So, I did a micro-study of catchers selected in the top 5 picks.  There are really five you could classify as studs — Joe Mauer (55.1 rWAR), Dale Murphy 46.5), Thurman Munson (46.1), Buster Posey (41.2) and Darrell Porter (40.9).    From there, there’s a precipitous drop down to Matt Wieters (18.0) and Mike Lieberthal (15.3).   The only others over 5 WAR are Mike Ivie (7.3) and Mike Zunino (6.9).    

Overall,  9% of all top 5 picks have been worth 40+ WAR, compared to 20% of top 5 catchers.   37% of all top 5 picks have been worth 10+ WAR, compared to only 28% of catchers.   23% of top 5 picks never made the majors, compared to 24% of catchers.