The Rebuild Strategy

[esmd]

In Roch's blog this morning, he addresses the rebuilding strategy that could be outlined by FO candidates thusly:

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/10/wondering-how-orioles-approach-rebuild-as-they-continue-interviews.html

"I’m left with my own set of questions.  They aren’t listed numerically because I’m not that organized, but one of the first would be whether the club intends to fill its roster with prospects and other unproven players and see which ones float and which ones sink to the bottom.

The thinking here would be that the Orioles aren’t contending in 2019 and they should do their evaluating at the major league level. Let the kids play. Walk away from the free-agent bargain bin.

We already know that they aren’t inflating the payroll.

The other option would be to stress development in the farm system, plugging various holes in the roster while waiting for these prospects to push their way onto it. Because, again, the Orioles aren’t contending in 2019 and why risk stunting their growth by force-feeding them?

As former manager Buck Showalter used to say, we’re not here to develop players in the majors. It’s supposed to happen down below."

I would lean more towards a hybrid of the two approaches more tilted to the latter - fill holes at the MLB with cheap, unproven players along the lines of a Nunez, but also giving young guys like DJ Stewart and Mullins a chance to play almost every day at this point, barring them showing that they can't handle it.  I'd also be very willing to promote guys like Hays, Diaz, and possibly Tate as soon as they show signs of being ready, but not before.  Obviously if they're showing signs in the minors of not being ready, I wouldn't do so.

Seems to me, this accomplishes a couple things - 1) it keeps payroll down, 2) we'll still lose (a lot   ) and secure more high draft picks to continue restocking the system, but (hopefully) not a the historical level that we did this year 3) we begin integrating the young prospects onto the MLB roster 4) maybe we get lucky and hit on one of these young journeyman like the Dodgers did on Turner or the Blue Jays did on Batista (though most likely not at that level of success - maybe more like a Brach Brach or Darren O'Day type but at a position), and 4) we continue grooming and developing our top young prospects like Mountcastle, Hall, etc. in the minors, hoping that they're ready in 2020 or 2021.

Thoughts?

[Ruzious]

Sure, I think that's mostly what's going to happen.  But I'd also look at players like Villar - talented players in their mid to late 20's who seemed to fall out of favor where they are.  Acquire them, build up their trade value, and trade them.  I don't think Villar is a player who figures in the O's long-term future, but in the meantime, he'll be fun to watch (except for the bad base-running mistakes) and hopefully net us a quality prospect or 2.   

[wildcard]

My rebuilding strategy is to sign Houston's Assistant GM for Player Acquisition, Mike Elias and let him do his thing.

[vab]

It's an interesting question and there's probably no set answer but I tend to think the sink or swim approach in the majors is the best idea overall. Every prospect is going to struggle to some degree in the majors, I don't care how ready they seem to be. Why not let them take their lumps in Baltimore? If you're going to be destroyed permanently by struggling in the majors at beginning of your career you probably just don't have the mental toughness to make it in the majors period.

[Dark Helmet]

I'm more in favor of the sink or swim at the major league level approach like KC and Hou did. But the FO might not be into wasting controlled years on non-competitive teams. Who knows.

[Redskins Rick]

6 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

I'm more in favor of the sink or swim at the major league level approach like KC and Hou did. But the FO might not be into wasting controlled years on non-competitive teams. Who knows.

Not sure KC will be back in power anytime soon, Houston looks to be more built for the long run.

[Camden_yardbird]

Let the GM decide, but theoretically, I dont like the idea of not bringing in free agents.  If the deals are short it should never hurt, and if they become tradable commodities then you get added value to your rebuilding effort.  

Not bringing in free agents to fill this role elongates the rebuilding process to the point where the system (drafting and player development) has to provide all the value, and frankly that's just as stupid as not participating in the international prospect market.

[Riggodrill44]

GET BETTER PLAYERS.....The End

[Dark Helmet]

3 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Not sure KC will be back in power anytime soon, Houston looks to be more built for the long run.

KC had a nice run and got a WS ring. Houston is in a better market to have the finances to sustain a longer run. But Hou does have alot of players about to be very expensive.

I'll take what KC had.

[wildbillhiccup]

5 hours ago, esmd said:

In Roch's blog this morning, he addresses the rebuilding strategy that could be outlined by FO candidates thusly:

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/10/wondering-how-orioles-approach-rebuild-as-they-continue-interviews.html

"I’m left with my own set of questions.  They aren’t listed numerically because I’m not that organized, but one of the first would be whether the club intends to fill its roster with prospects and other unproven players and see which ones float and which ones sink to the bottom.

The thinking here would be that the Orioles aren’t contending in 2019 and they should do their evaluating at the major league level. Let the kids play. Walk away from the free-agent bargain bin.

We already know that they aren’t inflating the payroll.

The other option would be to stress development in the farm system, plugging various holes in the roster while waiting for these prospects to push their way onto it. Because, again, the Orioles aren’t contending in 2019 and why risk stunting their growth by force-feeding them?

As former manager Buck Showalter used to say, we’re not here to develop players in the majors. It’s supposed to happen down below."

I would lean more towards a hybrid of the two approaches more tilted to the latter - fill holes at the MLB with cheap, unproven players along the lines of a Nunez, but also giving young guys like DJ Stewart and Mullins a chance to play almost every day at this point, barring them showing that they can't handle it.  I'd also be very willing to promote guys like Hays, Diaz, and possibly Tate as soon as they show signs of being ready, but not before.  Obviously if they're showing signs in the minors of not being ready, I wouldn't do so.

Seems to me, this accomplishes a couple things - 1) it keeps payroll down, 2) we'll still lose (a lot   ) and secure more high draft picks to continue restocking the system, but (hopefully) not a the historical level that we did this year 3) we begin integrating the young prospects onto the MLB roster 4) maybe we get lucky and hit on one of these young journeyman like the Dodgers did on Turner or the Blue Jays did on Batista (though most likely not at that level of success - maybe more like a Brach Brach or Darren O'Day type but at a position), and 4) we continue grooming and developing our top young prospects like Mountcastle, Hall, etc. in the minors, hoping that they're ready in 2020 or 2021.

Thoughts?

I mean, do they really have a choice? They're still stuck with Davis, Trumbo, and Cashner so they almost have to take a hybrid approach. And, despite what Buck says or thinks, the only argument against letting the kids learn at the MLB (if they're ready) is service time. That's it. Because they're going to finish in last or second to last place in the AL East with or without them. 

Also, I think it would be completely foolish for them to waste a single dollar in a free agent fill in if they think the have a minor league equivalent who might be ready. I don't care how much the kids struggle I don't want to sit through another season of players like Pedro Alvarez and Danny Valencia getting semi-regular at bats. 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, Riggodrill44 said:

GET BETTER PLAYERS.....The End

DEVELOP BETTER PLAYERS (there, fixed that for ya)

[wildbillhiccup]

3 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Let the GM decide, but theoretically, I dont like the idea of not bringing in free agents.  If the deals are short it should never hurt, and if they become tradable commodities then you get added value to your rebuilding effort.  

Not bringing in free agents to fill this role elongates the rebuilding process to the point where the system (drafting and player development) has to provide all the value, and frankly that's just as stupid as not participating in the international prospect market.

I don't see the point of bringing in middling free agents and not letting our young players learn and develop. You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig. 

[Dark Helmet]

26 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I don't see the point of bringing in middling free agents and not letting our young players learn and develop. You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig. 

Wasn't that basically the formula from 98-2011? Sign middling FA and hope the young players developed. That worked well.

[wildbillhiccup]

4 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Sure, I think that's mostly what's going to happen.  But I'd also look at players like Villar - talented players in their mid to late 20's who seemed to fall out of favor where they are.  Acquire them, build up their trade value, and trade them.  I don't think Villar is a player who figures in the O's long-term future, but in the meantime, he'll be fun to watch (except for the bad base-running mistakes) and hopefully net us a quality prospect or 2.   

So you want them to acquire middling free agents, play them everyday and hope they thrive, then flip them for prospects? C'mon now, we're talking about a team that could barely execute a sell off of players who were in pretty high demand. They can stick with the players they already have under contract (like Villar), but I see no point in trading for and/or signing more of them. 

[Redskins Rick]

23 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

KC had a nice run and got a WS ring. Houston is in a better market to have the finances to sustain a longer run. But Hou does have alot of players about to be very expensive.

I'll take what KC had.

They had a nice run, so did the Orioles, sadly they got a WS ring and this team didnt,